JRPGfan said:
S.Peelman said:
Here in the Netherlands they did a crude antibodies test by testing blood plasma donated by a number of people. It's not really conclusive, but they found that now about 3% of the people have generated antibodies which means about 3% of the population has had some kind of exposure to the virus. Out of a population of 17.5M that means that after all this time only 0.5M have some kind of defence against the virus. It's also the question in what capacity their antibodies will be effective. In any case, this is long ways from establishing group immunity, the downside of lockdowns. Maybe the Swedish approach isn't so bad. |
Yes I just saw that talked about in a video of Dr John Campbell.
3% of population = 519k.
~3700 deaths / 519k x 100% = ~0,71%
^ theres a big margin of error though, depending on how accurate you guys counted your deaths.
If theres like another 1500 deaths you guys have yet to count (in say nurseing homes or such), it'll change things alot.
However I suspect its higher.
Netherlands has reported ~250 recovered and ~3700 deaths.
You guys have too many people still in hospital, that its too early to say or accurately claim to know "real" death rate of this virus.
Right now, its looking like its ~0.71%
However you need to factor in, dieing takes time.
Deaths always lag, even when looking at this type of math.
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They don’t count recoveries here. In fact I don’t even know where worldometers got the 250 number from, should be zero, or a ‘-‘ like Wikipedia has (or had, didn’t check there in a while). The number of recoveries is much higher than 250 in actuality though, the amount of people in hospitals and ICU have been steadily declining for almost two weeks now, and then there’s the non-hospitalized mild cases. At the moment there’s still about 1100 people in ICU. The death number could be a bit higher, but not by much, here they’ve already been counting deaths outside hospitals so there won’t be a big correction like we saw in France for example. The main statistics agency has pointed out an increase in average weekly deaths compared to other years slightly beyond the counted Coronavirus deaths, that are unaccounted for though.
Last edited by S.Peelman - on 20 April 2020
