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JRPGfan on 20 April 2020
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S.Peelman said:
JRPGfan said:

Yes I just saw that talked about in a video of Dr John Campbell.

3% of population = 519k.

 ~3700 deaths  / 519k  x 100% = ~0,71%


^ theres a big margin of error though, depending on how accurate you guys counted your deaths.
If theres like another 1500 deaths you guys have yet to count (in say nurseing homes or such), it'll change things alot.

However I suspect its higher.
Netherlands has reported ~250 recovered and ~3700 deaths.
You guys have too many people still in hospital, that its too early to say or accurately claim to know "real" death rate of this virus.

Right now, its looking like its ~0.71%

However you need to factor in, dieing takes time.
Deaths always lag, even when looking at this type of math.

They don’t count recoveries here. In fact I don’t even know where worldometers got the 250 number from, should be zero, or a ‘-‘ like Wikipedia has (or had, didn’t check there in a while). The number of recoveries is much higher than 250 in actuality though, the amount of people in hospitals and ICU have been steadily declining for almost two weeks now, and then there’s the non-hospitalized mild cases. At the moment there’s still about 1100 people in ICU. The death number could be a bit higher, but not by much, here they’ve already been counting deaths outside hospitals so there won’t be a big correction like we saw in France for example. The main statistics agency has pointed out an increase in average weekly deaths compared to other years slightly beyond the counted Coronavirus deaths, that are unaccounted for though.

When its all said and done, its probably around 1%.
(In the western world, with proper healthcare)

But like others have said, theres now a few differnt strains and many many mutations within each "main" strain.
On Iceland they tested and found over 40+ mutations within a strain they had on the island.

On Faroe Islands, they found 2 differnt main strains (just like the chinese talked about), and found one was barely spreading (ei. you could kiss someone and not easily get it), while another was spread basically just walking by someone else infected breathing.

So how dangerous this virus is, *could* also depend on which version of it you get.

Rab said:
Experts are starting to hint at the possibility that the virus will mutate like the common flu and recur every year, so immunities will be redundant and vaccines unusable every year forever, this could be our new normal unless we eradicate it on a World scale

This would suck sooooooooooo much.
I hope next wave, we have enough PPE, and test & track early.
Maybe just catch the infected, and keep them away from the rest of us.

Goverments around the world better learn from this experiance.
(we need testing at borders, and on airplanes too)

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 20 April 2020