Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

You concerned yet?

Yes 91 49.19%
 
No, but I will be followi... 50 27.03%
 
No, its being overblown 44 23.78%
 
Total:185
vivster said:
Disregarding all of China's manufacturing because you bought some broken shit on alibaba is like disregarding all of the US because your craigslist hookup tried to rape you.

I am not upset about the masks? The west has ignored China's monstrosity for far too long, and it's not changing soon. Placing one million Uighur Muslims in its “reeducation” camps should've been enough reason to stop all deals with that country, but nope, gotta maximize profits. 



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LurkerJ said:
SpokenTruth said:

This is the positive cases in my county by age group.  That whole notion that "it only affects old" is BS.

good thing that notion never existed in the first place. I have yet to hear anyone says that.

Florida's beaches full of college students a couple weeks ago disagrees 



RolStoppable said:
JRPGfan said:

"Important numbers are how many of the infected have only mild or moderate symptoms and don't need to be hospitalized. If people got told every day that more than 90% of the infected are getting away easily, then more people would keep a cool head. But I guess it's easier to make people stay inside when you warp reality and instill a little fear."

I don't get what you have an issue with.

"People are getting paranoid"
"90% of the infected are getting away easily"

No people are takeing it seriously.  You shouldn't gamble your life or anothers, if you can avoid doing so?

Even if 90% get away scot free, more than enough will die to it, without people thinking their invincible.
(that ll never happend to me, I dont get sick ect... or I'm young, so even if I get it, it wont matter)

Theres 30' year olds on ventilators too.
Even if you never reach that point, getting sick with this thing can really suck.



JRPGfan said:
RolStoppable said:

I don't get what you have an issue with.

"People are getting paranoid"
"90% of the infected are getting away easily"

No people are takeing it seriously.  You shouldn't gamble your life or anothers, if you can avoid doing so?

Even if 90% get away scot free, more than enough will die to it, without people thinking their invincible.
(that ll never happend to me, I dont get sick ect... or I'm young, so even if I get it, it wont matter)

Theres 30' year olds on ventilators too.
Even if you never reach that point, getting sick with this thing can really suck.

It's factual that people have begun to hoard certain goods, as if soon the restrictions would lock up everyone in their own house. That's paranoia and that's the difference between taking it seriously and losing your mind.

You responded to a stack of quotes concerning the overdramatization of the news media, and yes, things are getting overdramatized. Nobody in that stack has made a call for young people to act against the restrictions, rather we were talking about how the crisis is portrayed by the media and how things are blown out of proportion. Driving people into paranoia and making them buy up goods to hoard doesn't help the population at large, hence why governments have repeatedly said that such purchases are not only not necessary, but also harmful to others who are consequently looking at empty spaces in the super markets.



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vivster said:
Nighthawk117 said:

The American people trust the CDC more than any President. If the CDC is not allowed to report accurate numbers, or any numbers at all, then all hell would break loose here. 

Are we talking about the same CDC that people don't trust when it comes to something as simple as vaccinations?

Lol way to generalize.



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RolStoppable said:
S.Peelman said:

I'm with you on that part.

That's actually quite annoying and is unnecessary fear-mongering. Here in the Netherlands there was this one guy, 39 or something, who was all over the news because he was on a ventilator while "he had always been so healthy". Meanwhile those 99.99% of the other people of his age that get off with just a mild cough are nowhere to be seen. The point is there's always outliers, the guy just had bad luck (or has an health issue he doesn't know about).

I've only been aware of that young German who returned home from his ski vacation in Austria and was put on a ventilator. Then they mentioned his age (55) and I facepalmed.

The news reporting really sucks. Almost always it's about total number of infections, increase to the day before, then number of deaths and increase to the day before. Given how many people are sitting at home these days, a ton of them is going to watch news on TV daily. When you get bombarded with that stuff all the time while important numbers keep getting omitted, then it's no surprise that more and more people are getting paranoid and buying up toilet paper, flour and whatever else seems necessary for survival.

Important numbers are how many of the infected have only mild or moderate symptoms and don't need to be hospitalized. If people got told every day that more than 90% of the infected are getting away easily, then more people would keep a cool head. But I guess it's easier to make people stay inside when you warp reality and instill a little fear.

Exactly, and the actual information is, here at least, readily available. The government publishes a document each day with updated numbers on infected, hospitalized, ICU needs and death each day, even broken down by gender, age, prior sickness, area of residence and whatever. Everything except ‘cured’ people, they don’t track that. Looking through this document really puts things into perspective, to not take the daily numbers from the media at face value. Then you’ll also see that those deaths that were reported this morning didn’t all happen yesterday but are rather more spread out over a number of past days.

Our media seems to have gotten a bit of mild critique about that a few days ago though, it seems they are wording things more carefully now.



RolStoppable said:

I've only been aware of that young German who returned home from his ski vacation in Austria and was put on a ventilator. Then they mentioned his age (55) and I facepalmed.

The news reporting really sucks. Almost always it's about total number of infections, increase to the day before, then number of deaths and increase to the day before. Given how many people are sitting at home these days, a ton of them is going to watch news on TV daily. When you get bombarded with that stuff all the time while important numbers keep getting omitted, then it's no surprise that more and more people are getting paranoid and buying up toilet paper, flour and whatever else seems necessary for survival.

Important numbers are how many of the infected have only mild or moderate symptoms and don't need to be hospitalized. If people got told every day that more than 90% of the infected are getting away easily, then more people would keep a cool head. But I guess it's easier to make people stay inside when you warp reality and instill a little fear.

News reporting always sucks. When here is a flood near you, you see the worst pictures on the news making your town look like a war zone. In reality it's a couple streets that are like that while 95% of the town is fine. The same applies here.

The real estimates are both reassuring and more scary. I don't know what's worse, the virus already being far more widespread or more lethal. The former is a lot more dangerous for my much at risk wife.

Comparing some of the estimates of the Imperial royal college for March 28th

            discovered infected    lower estimate   upper estimate
Austria        3,451                     31,759                  273,482
Belgium       9,134                   148,200                1,105,800
Denmark     2,201                     22,412                 173,693
France          37,575                 736,890               4,957,260
Germany     57,695                  245,812               1,490,220
Italy               92,472               1,935,360             15,724,800

They base the estimated true number of infections on estimated mortality rate combined with observed deaths. This is of course dependent on accurate recording of deaths and guess work what the actual mortality rate is. The lower/higher estimate are in the 95% credible interval, so a lot of guess work.

Also assuming it started as early as Januari 1st in Italy (80 days until March 28th), the lower estimate assumes a growth rate of 1.20x daily, the upper estimate 1.23x daily. Estimates upon estimates with a small difference in growth rates resulting in hugely different outcomes. Both btw more aggressive than the 1.164x growth rate based on R0 of 2.2 with medium incubation time of 5.2 days. But mean time to be infectious might be shorter and the reason they give for using a more aggressive growth model in the early stages is that the infection in Europe was imported, more seeds to start from which are already into their incubation period.

Anyway, what to make of these numbers, 10x to 80x more undetected cases with mild to no symptoms. Or from the closed cases in Italy, instead of 44% fatality rate, 2.1% to 0.26% fatality rate.


We simply do not know enough yet to make any accurate predictions :/

However the more widespread it actually is, the more important the measures are to slow it down. Although the upper estimate already has 26% of Italy infected, can only get 3x worse before it runs out of fuel to spread. Yet the lower estimate is 3.2% and it can still get 22x worse :/



JRPGfan said:
UK is seeing a drastic growth in deaths now.
Last few days its been 180-200 ish, and today its already over 380.

The overall numbers are drastic. Until March it was around 3000 dead. Now it's 40k+.



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John2290 said:

Hmmm... Well, this is my bias confirmed. The WHO carry equal blame as China. Mere puppets.

WHO chief says widespread travel bans not needed to beat China virus

GENEVA (Reuters) - World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Monday there was no need for measures that “unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade” in trying to halt the spread of a coronavirus that has killed 361 people in China.

Tedros, who held talks in Beijing a week ago with Chinese President Xi Jinping and other leaders, coughed and interrupted his speech to take a drink of water, quipping: “Don’t worry, it’s not corona”.

China’s delegate took the floor at the WHO Executive Board and denounced measures by “some countries” that have denied entry to people holding passports issued in Hubei province - at the center of the outbreak - and to deny visas and cancel flights. “All these measures are seriously against recommendation by the WHO,” said Li Song, who is China’s ambassador for disarmament at the United Nations in Geneva.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who/who-chief-says-widespread-travel-bans-not-needed-to-beat-china-virus-idUSKBN1ZX1H3

This is from early Feb, 2020. WHO can fuck themselves honestly. 

Apparently the guy in the video you shared is Bruce Aylward and he's the WHO assistant director, I would like an article on the list of lies told by China and parroted by the WHO since the beginning of the outbreak in Wahun. 

Last edited by LurkerJ - on 31 March 2020