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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

PortisheadBiscuit on 02 April 2020
newwil7l said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

Lol, you're trying to twist it and make it seem as if I said all fit people are unhealthy. Nooooo, just highlighting the fact that being "fit" is not synonymous with being healthy. Not sure why that needed clarification as it was a simple concept, but ok. 

Except 90% of the time being fit does correlate with health lol. You made it sound like the media is what determined that fit people are healthy when in reality its biology.

And you also have to look at some of the measures people take to get there. Look at some of these Olympians and elite athletes and their PED use, they look like Greek gods but are risking their health for peak performance. I'm not saying people shouldn't take their health and fitness seriously, but it works both ways. Healthy balanced diet and exercise. Not cheetos and couch life, or on the flipside not working out 12 times a week with tendinitis, knee, back, and elbow braces, and pre workout powder 3 times a day. 



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PortisheadBiscuit on 02 April 2020
SvennoJ said:
JRPGfan said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1aoULlMpn0

Data models from intel collected of 11 european nations, suggest possible 1.88% to 11,43% of the population (of those 11 countries)
has been infected.

Thats why he calls it "good news", this might mean the CFR is between 0,2 - 1,16% (bound to rise with time though)
(death always lags many weeks behinde).

btw, 11,43% of those 11 countries = ~6,858,000 people infected.  (most posible)

The "confirmed cases" of these 11 countries is around 448k.

Everywhere else in the world, its probably about the same.

1,88% of population (1,128,000 people), with 448k confirmed cases = theres 2,52  more people actually infected than confirmed cases.
11,42% of population (6,858,000 people), with 448k confirmed cases = theres 15,3 more people actually infected than confirmed cases.

Its probably somewhere in the middle, of the two.

Apply same thinking the US:
235k confirmed cases =  between 592k to 3596k in the USA are infected.

(its just most are without symptoms yet, or asymptomatic)


I think its "relatively safe" to assume, that any confirmed case amount we have, theres probably like x10 times as many out there.

Yeah that's from this report
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf

It's a huge error margin though, for Italy it estimates between 3.2% and 26% already being infected. On one end it can still get 22x worse, on the other end already closing in on herd immunity.

However these estimates are based on correctly identifying all deaths. Another figure that's not all that reliable. In Ontario it was either 36 or 68 or somewhere in between as of yesterday. The death toll in China has been put into question, some countries don't count it if you don't die in the hospital with confirmed lab tests.

It's all going so fast human error creeps in a lot and there is no time (yet) to properly examine every death. But yep, there sure a many more unconfirmed cases out there.

Can't help but wonder also the ratios of asymptomatic carriers to symptomatic carriers. And what percentage of symptomatic carriers develop severe symptoms. I guess there's no way of obtaining unskewed data for those sets seeing as how most asymptomatic won't seek care and/or testing and are refused testing without symptoms. 



AsGryffynn on 02 April 2020
newwil7l said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

Lol, you're trying to twist it and make it seem as if I said all fit people are unhealthy. Nooooo, just highlighting the fact that being "fit" is not synonymous with being healthy. Not sure why that needed clarification as it was a simple concept, but ok. 

Except 90% of the time being fit does correlate with health lol. You made it sound like the media is what determined that fit people are healthy when in reality its biology.

Smokers can be fit people but they are the first who are going into a ventilator. That's kind of the point here. 



JRPGfan on 02 April 2020
SvennoJ said:
JRPGfan said:

Yeah that's from this report
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf

It's a huge error margin though, for Italy it estimates between 3.2% and 26% already being infected. On one end it can still get 22x worse, on the other end already closing in on herd immunity.

However these estimates are based on correctly identifying all deaths. Another figure that's not all that reliable. In Ontario it was either 36 or 68 or somewhere in between as of yesterday. The death toll in China has been put into question, some countries don't count it if you don't die in the hospital with confirmed lab tests.

It's all going so fast human error creeps in a lot and there is no time (yet) to properly examine every death. But yep, there sure a many more unconfirmed cases out there.

Numbers from Spain/Italy are likely only half, of actual numbers at best.
Its likely its much like this other places too.



JRPGfan on 02 April 2020
ClassicGamingWizzz said:
One case comfirmed on my company , probably infected all the production section of my company already, the boss of my section is waiting comfirmation If she have it and its almost garanteed She have cause She have no taste sensation . Company informed US today, they still do no want to close the fucking place these pieces of shit. I am probably infected already but i AM terrified of infecting my family and Someone gets it from me. Dont want to infect anyone, i have to go to work friday i AM só fucked my ansiety is killing me right now.

Buy a ton of those masks (not the n95 type ones) but the common ones.
If you think you already have it, you have already infected your family. Dont go visiting your parents/grandparents next few weeks.
So dont worry about infecting wife/kids, its already too late likely.
The good news is, women handle this virus much better than men. Also kids, in generally do really well too.

Now it becomes a matter of you not infecting others, outsides your household.
Order food/groceries online, if you have to go outsides, wear a mask.

If you have to go to work.... yeah that sucks.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 02 April 2020

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drkohler on 02 April 2020
JRPGfan said:

Numbers from Spain/Italy are likely only half, of actual numbers at best.
Its likely its much like this other places too.

In Ialy, Bergamo, the situation is out of hands. Many more deaths than officially counted.

There are ("illegally taken") pictures floating around from Wuhan, where the crematorium is working day and night. The Chinese numbers are obciously fake.



newwil7l on 02 April 2020

Yikes. 5400+ deaths today worldwide and the day isn't even over yet for reporting. Yesterday's number and the highest number and peak for the virus till today was 4900.



jason1637 on 02 April 2020

France beat the US record set yesterday for most deaths in a day with 1355 deaths today.



JRPGfan on 02 April 2020
jason1637 said:
France beat the US record set yesterday for most deaths in a day with 1355 deaths today.

Most of europe is a week or more ahead on the timeline, compaired to the USA.
This matters because deaths lag behinde by potentially weeks.... so the "deaths" today, are caused by infections from weeks ago.
Go look at how many were infected in the US, a week or two ago. Then look at todays numbers of infected, and think 2 weeks forwards.

Within a week, im sure you'll see the US beat that record many times over (much bigger country).

newwil7l said:

Yikes. 5400+ deaths today worldwide and the day isn't even over yet for reporting. Yesterday's number and the highest number and peak for the virus till today was 4900.

Next week, we will probably be seeing 10k+ pr day (world wide).

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 02 April 2020

newwil7l on 02 April 2020
JRPGfan said:
jason1637 said:
France beat the US record set yesterday for most deaths in a day with 1355 deaths today.

Most of europe is a week or more ahead on the timeline, compaired to the USA.
This matters because deaths lag behinde by potentially weeks.... so the "deaths" today, are caused by infections from weeks ago.
Go look at how many were infected in the US, a week or two ago. Then look at todays numbers of infected, and think 2 weeks forwards.

Within a week, im sure you'll see the US beat that record many times over (much bigger country).

France is behind its European peers like Spain and Italy though. 

That number is beyond staggering regardless and has me very worried for France, much more than America as of now.