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PortisheadBiscuit on 02 April 2020
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SvennoJ said:
JRPGfan said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1aoULlMpn0

Data models from intel collected of 11 european nations, suggest possible 1.88% to 11,43% of the population (of those 11 countries)
has been infected.

Thats why he calls it "good news", this might mean the CFR is between 0,2 - 1,16% (bound to rise with time though)
(death always lags many weeks behinde).

btw, 11,43% of those 11 countries = ~6,858,000 people infected.  (most posible)

The "confirmed cases" of these 11 countries is around 448k.

Everywhere else in the world, its probably about the same.

1,88% of population (1,128,000 people), with 448k confirmed cases = theres 2,52  more people actually infected than confirmed cases.
11,42% of population (6,858,000 people), with 448k confirmed cases = theres 15,3 more people actually infected than confirmed cases.

Its probably somewhere in the middle, of the two.

Apply same thinking the US:
235k confirmed cases =  between 592k to 3596k in the USA are infected.

(its just most are without symptoms yet, or asymptomatic)


I think its "relatively safe" to assume, that any confirmed case amount we have, theres probably like x10 times as many out there.

Yeah that's from this report
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf

It's a huge error margin though, for Italy it estimates between 3.2% and 26% already being infected. On one end it can still get 22x worse, on the other end already closing in on herd immunity.

However these estimates are based on correctly identifying all deaths. Another figure that's not all that reliable. In Ontario it was either 36 or 68 or somewhere in between as of yesterday. The death toll in China has been put into question, some countries don't count it if you don't die in the hospital with confirmed lab tests.

It's all going so fast human error creeps in a lot and there is no time (yet) to properly examine every death. But yep, there sure a many more unconfirmed cases out there.

Can't help but wonder also the ratios of asymptomatic carriers to symptomatic carriers. And what percentage of symptomatic carriers develop severe symptoms. I guess there's no way of obtaining unskewed data for those sets seeing as how most asymptomatic won't seek care and/or testing and are refused testing without symptoms.