Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[JRPGfan]

SvennoJ said:

JRPGfan said:

Yeah that's from this report
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf

It's a huge error margin though, for Italy it estimates between 3.2% and 26% already being infected. On one end it can still get 22x worse, on the other end already closing in on herd immunity.

However these estimates are based on correctly identifying all deaths. Another figure that's not all that reliable. In Ontario it was either 36 or 68 or somewhere in between as of yesterday. The death toll in China has been put into question, some countries don't count it if you don't die in the hospital with confirmed lab tests.

It's all going so fast human error creeps in a lot and there is no time (yet) to properly examine every death. But yep, there sure a many more unconfirmed cases out there.

And the deaths are being underestimated in each of the places reassessedhttps://t.co/gYmtk0ZBNx
added to @edyong209 earlier reply and @TheAtlantic piece by @elainejgodfrey https://t.co/skdeLkdqhs pic.twitter.com/R9HjD39WPb

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) April 2, 2020

Numbers from Spain/Italy are likely only half, of actual numbers at best.
Its likely its much like this other places too.