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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will Switch pass Wii?

 

When will Switch pass Wii?

Holiday 2021 19 13.48%
 
Early 2022 8 5.67%
 
Mid 2022 13 9.22%
 
Holiday 2022 34 24.11%
 
Early 2023 15 10.64%
 
Mid 2023 10 7.09%
 
Holiday 2023 15 10.64%
 
2024 or later 5 3.55%
 
Never 22 15.60%
 
Total:141

Assuming that this year is a peak year for the Switch, sometime in H1 2022. If not then, 2023.



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last quarter of 2022 seems the most likely to hit 100M. As the last quarter of the year is where Nintendo sells the bulk of it's hardware and it alligns pretty well with how it looks right now. I'm assuming we'll get news of the Switch being at roughly 52M (give or take a million) this upcoming week and as I'm on the 2020-as-peak-year boat. Below is how I think it might look.

2019 ~51-53M
2020 ~ 72-75M
2021 ~90-93M
2022 ~105-108M



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Nu-13 said:

The ds was over 6 years old when the 3ds came out. That isn't panic.

Yes, they panicked. They panicked because the Vita was also about to release, and Nintendo thought they needed a new System to put against it. Otherwise, they would certainly have let the DS continue for longer. I mean, why replace a system that's still pulling over 20M a year?

Because it had been 6 effing years, saturation was being reached, the competition was making their move and they had to move on.

Last edited by Nu-13 - on 26 January 2020

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Nu-13 said:

The ds was over 6 years old when the 3ds came out. That isn't panic.

Yes, they panicked. They panicked because the Vita was also about to release, and Nintendo thought they needed a new System to put against it. Otherwise, they would certainly have let the DS continue for longer. I mean, why replace a system that's still pulling over 20M a year?

That's not panic.  That's preparing for the next generation.  Why push the DS longer just to outsell the PS2 (which means absolutely nothing in business terms) and delay your next generation platform (which alters the software release plans for yourself and every 3rd party developing for it) all while giving massive market share to your rival?



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

It's worth noting that like the 3DS, the DS continued to see support even after the release of its replacement, which is very different from Wii where support dried up well before its successor arrived.

Switch should get treatment more similar to DS/3DS, which would give it an edge against the Wii in lifetime sales.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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curl-6 said:

It's worth noting that like the 3DS, the DS continued to see support even after the release of its replacement, which is very different from Wii where support dried up well before its successor arrived.

Switch should get treatment more similar to DS/3DS, which would give it an edge against the Wii in lifetime sales.

Same with GBA, it was supported for about a year and a half after DS released.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

It's worth noting that like the 3DS, the DS continued to see support even after the release of its replacement, which is very different from Wii where support dried up well before its successor arrived.

Switch should get treatment more similar to DS/3DS, which would give it an edge against the Wii in lifetime sales.

Same with GBA, it was supported for about a year and a half after DS released.

Nintendo tend to support their handhelds a lot longer than their home consoles, hopefully Switch inherits the handheld genes in this regard.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

3DS was not panic to the Vita. While I don't have articles saved from 2004-2005 anymore. I seem to remember DS was originally going to just be a dual-screen Game Boy Advance and nothing more. Nintendo got wind of N-Gage and PSP and made the DS 3D capable. Early dev kits or prototypes I think were 2 GBA screens with a Super Famicom Controller attached. It was bizarre looking.

DS was at least on spec if not more so than N-Gage. (Side note HA!, N-Gage design intentionally looks like GOATSE as a designer submitted it as a joke out of frustration with management,management approved it not knowing what it was based on)

Last edited by Leynos - on 26 January 2020

Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

curl-6 said:
miqdadi said:

Well Nintendo may not care for that result so it may not pass it, they done great supporting Switch but who knows when will they move to the next one, Unlike Sony Nintendo never cared for this all they care about after their console is a success is to sell software and break records with that

Of the 12 systems Nintendo have released to date, I can think of only two, Wii and GBA, that were successful but cut short early.

As Eagle points out, they're still selling the 3DS which is not only approaching its 9th birthday but was much less successful than the Switch.

What determines that is 3rd party support, most likely first party will move to the next project



miqdadi said:
curl-6 said:

Of the 12 systems Nintendo have released to date, I can think of only two, Wii and GBA, that were successful but cut short early.

As Eagle points out, they're still selling the 3DS which is not only approaching its 9th birthday but was much less successful than the Switch.

What determines that is 3rd party support, most likely first party will move to the next project

Again though, the pattern you're describing really only applies to 2/12 Nintendo systems released thus far, it's not their standard MO like you suggest.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.