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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will Switch pass Wii?

 

When will Switch pass Wii?

Holiday 2021 19 13.48%
 
Early 2022 8 5.67%
 
Mid 2022 13 9.22%
 
Holiday 2022 34 24.11%
 
Early 2023 15 10.64%
 
Mid 2023 10 7.09%
 
Holiday 2023 15 10.64%
 
2024 or later 5 3.55%
 
Never 22 15.60%
 
Total:141
HylianSwordsman said:
Nu-13 said:

Until later in 2022, most multiplatform games will have started development on ps4 and merely be ported (or just run in 4k on the 10th gen consoles through BC, like a souped up ps4 pro and x1x). Meaning the switch doesn't have hardware barriers on getting multiplatforms until then. And after that it doesn't matter because it will be time fot the switch 2. And it was said many times that even if hardware was a problem for ports, a stronger switch revision wouldn't change that due to small base.

I agree, minus the last two sentences. I think Switch 2 comes in 2024. And I think any Switch model will do well enough to justify the meager ports we've gotten thus far. If they'd make Witcher 3 for 40 million Switch consoles, they'll make the 2022 titles for the 40 million consoles the Switch Pro will likely have by then. We don't get every port, but thus far we've gotten the ones I've cared about: Skyrim, Witcher 3, Crash, Spyro, and Outer Worlds. It's not a lot, and a Switch Pro wouldn't get us a lot more, but it's some, and a Switch Pro would probably get us a few more. Switch stands a great chance of beating Wii no matter what happens though. Pro model or not. 

Unrealistic/impossible expectations. Expecting nintendo to wait 7-7.8 years to replace the switch or that a niche hardware revision can sell anywhere near 40m units in 2 years.



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Nu-13 said:
HylianSwordsman said:

I agree, minus the last two sentences. I think Switch 2 comes in 2024. And I think any Switch model will do well enough to justify the meager ports we've gotten thus far. If they'd make Witcher 3 for 40 million Switch consoles, they'll make the 2022 titles for the 40 million consoles the Switch Pro will likely have by then. We don't get every port, but thus far we've gotten the ones I've cared about: Skyrim, Witcher 3, Crash, Spyro, and Outer Worlds. It's not a lot, and a Switch Pro wouldn't get us a lot more, but it's some, and a Switch Pro would probably get us a few more. Switch stands a great chance of beating Wii no matter what happens though. Pro model or not. 

Unrealistic/impossible expectations. Expecting nintendo to wait 7-7.8 years to replace the switch or that a niche hardware revision can sell anywhere near 40m units in 2 years.

Sure, a hardware upgrade is "niche", got it. Well, when Nintendo makes it, you can go cry to them, because neither you nor I can stop them.



HylianSwordsman said:
Nu-13 said:

Unrealistic/impossible expectations. Expecting nintendo to wait 7-7.8 years to replace the switch or that a niche hardware revision can sell anywhere near 40m units in 2 years.

Sure, a hardware upgrade is "niche", got it. Well, when Nintendo makes it, you can go cry to them, because neither you nor I can stop them.

40 million in 2 years is almost as much as the Switch will likely sell in total. How is a hardware revision selling alongside the base and the Lite going to manage that?



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
HylianSwordsman said:

Sure, a hardware upgrade is "niche", got it. Well, when Nintendo makes it, you can go cry to them, because neither you nor I can stop them.

40 million in 2 years is almost as much as the Switch will likely sell in total. How is a hardware revision selling alongside the base and the Lite going to manage that?

The original unit will stop selling eventually, just as the original 3DS did when the New 3DS came out. Also, what? You think the Switch will only sell 90 million units? Not likely.



HylianSwordsman said:
curl-6 said:

40 million in 2 years is almost as much as the Switch will likely sell in total. How is a hardware revision selling alongside the base and the Lite going to manage that?

The original unit will stop selling eventually, just as the original 3DS did when the New 3DS came out. Also, what? You think the Switch will only sell 90 million units? Not likely.

I sincerely doubt the original Switch or the Lite would drop off nearly fast enough for there to be 40 million New Nintendo Switches in 2022.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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Switch Pro is the new Wii HD.

It's another sign of Nintendo always leaving people wanting more which bodes well for Switch 2 (assuming they don't do a WiiU2).



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

curl-6 said:
HylianSwordsman said:

The original unit will stop selling eventually, just as the original 3DS did when the New 3DS came out. Also, what? You think the Switch will only sell 90 million units? Not likely.

I sincerely doubt the original Switch or the Lite would drop off nearly fast enough for there to be 40 million New Nintendo Switches in 2022.

So then you think a New Nintendo Switch would not sell well? Look man, if you think it'll be niche too, that's not my problem. I don't care how much it sells. The thread is what the Switch as a whole will sell, and whether that amount will be higher than Wii. I think it will be higher than Wii, regardless of what hardware revisions are released. I think on that we're agreed. It's just hard to blunt the amount of momentum it has right now fast enough. Switch can definitely manage 50 million in the next 3 or 4 years or whatever it has left.



HylianSwordsman said:
curl-6 said:

I sincerely doubt the original Switch or the Lite would drop off nearly fast enough for there to be 40 million New Nintendo Switches in 2022.

So then you think a New Nintendo Switch would not sell well? Look man, if you think it'll be niche too, that's not my problem. I don't care how much it sells. The thread is what the Switch as a whole will sell, and whether that amount will be higher than Wii. I think it will be higher than Wii, regardless of what hardware revisions are released. I think on that we're agreed. It's just hard to blunt the amount of momentum it has right now fast enough. Switch can definitely manage 50 million in the next 3 or 4 years or whatever it has left.

I didn't say it would be niche or not sell well, that would depend how exactly they execute a "New Switch" and how price it, but you're right, we have kinda drifted off topic, and we do both agree that Switch should outsell the Wii.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

I'm tempted to say never because at this point we just are not sure what future the console holds. We could get a Switch 2 or a whole new console which would cut off the sale, or they could just keep the Switch title but release a more powerful console that runs the same firmware.



HylianSwordsman said:

I'm not remotely arguing that Nintendo needs third party. I'm arguing that Nintendo looks likely to make a Pro model for the Switch whether it needs it or not, that as the 9th gen goes on that eventually the meager offerings Nintendo gets from 3rd parties will only be ported to the Pro model, and that all of this is fine and you all need to adjust to the reality that will be the Switch Pro because if you really don't care at all about it I doubt it will affect you that much beyond a few games Nintendo makes to take advantage of it and to support it. Stop shoving your narrative onto me, I'm not a "Nintendo needs AAA 3rd party support" guy, I'm just guessing what I think might happen. I'm not trying to pretend I make Nintendo's business decisions for them, or that I begin to understand their logic (I don't most of the time), but I think they're making a Switch Pro and I'm going to buy it if they do, and probably the 3rd parties, whether Nintendo "needs them" or not, are going to make Switch Pro exclusive ports. If I'm wrong and there's no Switch Pro, I'd still bet on the Switch passing Wii. I've never thought otherwise, even when the hybrid console was just a rumor.

But that's based on nothing. This year's rumor started with Digitimes claiming that a new Switch model is in the works, but they didn't say anything about its specifications. The latest tidbit of the rumor mill is that the new Switch model will neither have 4k support nor a significant performance upgrade, despite this new rumor talking about Nintendo and Nvidia having developed a new/updated GPU. What this points towards is not a Pro, but yet another improvement in battery life due to a more energy-efficient architecture.

2020 is shaping up to be a repeat of 2019 where the rumors pointed away from a Pro, but the internet kept expecting a Pro against all reason.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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