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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will Switch pass Wii?

 

When will Switch pass Wii?

Holiday 2021 31 19.38%
 
Early 2022 12 7.50%
 
Mid 2022 14 8.75%
 
Holiday 2022 34 21.25%
 
Early 2023 15 9.38%
 
Mid 2023 10 6.25%
 
Holiday 2023 15 9.38%
 
2024 or later 6 3.75%
 
Never 23 14.38%
 
Total:160
Leynos on 26 January 2020

3DS was not panic to the Vita. While I don't have articles saved from 2004-2005 anymore. I seem to remember DS was originally going to just be a dual-screen Game Boy Advance and nothing more. Nintendo got wind of N-Gage and PSP and made the DS 3D capable. Early dev kits or prototypes I think were 2 GBA screens with a Super Famicom Controller attached. It was bizarre looking.

DS was at least on spec if not more so than N-Gage. (Side note HA!, N-Gage design intentionally looks like GOATSE as a designer submitted it as a joke out of frustration with management,management approved it not knowing what it was based on)

Last edited by Leynos - on 26 January 2020

Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

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miqdadi on 27 January 2020
curl-6 said:
miqdadi said:

Well Nintendo may not care for that result so it may not pass it, they done great supporting Switch but who knows when will they move to the next one, Unlike Sony Nintendo never cared for this all they care about after their console is a success is to sell software and break records with that

Of the 12 systems Nintendo have released to date, I can think of only two, Wii and GBA, that were successful but cut short early.

As Eagle points out, they're still selling the 3DS which is not only approaching its 9th birthday but was much less successful than the Switch.

What determines that is 3rd party support, most likely first party will move to the next project



curl-6 on 27 January 2020
miqdadi said:
curl-6 said:

Of the 12 systems Nintendo have released to date, I can think of only two, Wii and GBA, that were successful but cut short early.

As Eagle points out, they're still selling the 3DS which is not only approaching its 9th birthday but was much less successful than the Switch.

What determines that is 3rd party support, most likely first party will move to the next project

Again though, the pattern you're describing really only applies to 2/12 Nintendo systems released thus far, it's not their standard MO like you suggest.



The_Liquid_Laser on 28 January 2020
miqdadi said:
curl-6 said:

Of the 12 systems Nintendo have released to date, I can think of only two, Wii and GBA, that were successful but cut short early.

As Eagle points out, they're still selling the 3DS which is not only approaching its 9th birthday but was much less successful than the Switch.

What determines that is 3rd party support, most likely first party will move to the next project

Even though Nintendo launched the Switch in March 2017 it supported the 3DS in both 2017 and 2018.  Go back and look at the Nintendo Directs from these years and you'll see a short section for 3DS games in the beginning.  Not coincidentally 3DS sales stayed fairly steady throughout 2017 and 2018, nothing impressive, but enough to keep tail end sales alive.  In 2019, they started focusing solely on Switch and that was the year the 3DS sales slowed to a crawl.

Nintendo gave first party support to the 3DS for 8 years, 2011-2018.  If they will do that for a system that only sold 75m then imagine what they will do for the Switch.



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curl-6 on 28 January 2020

This whole idea that Nintendo only supports their systems for 4-5 years then moves on overnight seems to be based solely on their unsuccessful consoles and the Wii, totally ignoring NES, SNES, Gameboy, DS, and 3DS.

DS got Pokemon B&W2 eight years after it launched.

SNES got Kirby's Dreamland 3 seven years after launch.

Gameboy got Pokemon Gold & Silver ten years after launch.

3DS got Ultra Sun & Moon six years after launch.



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CheddarPlease on 03 May 2021

As someone who has started to follow the scene here around the time this post was made, I'm frankly astounded by how much the Switch has exceeded everyones' expectations over this past year, myself included. Only 4 people voted for what is likely to be the correct date, Holiday 2021. Even the most optimistic commentators had 2022 pinned as the earliest possible year, yet it's a possibility that the Switch could potentially pass the Wii before even December. Given that we're more than a year off from when this post was made, I wonder what people have to say about this now?



kenjab on 04 May 2021
RingoGaSuki said:

I think Switch is only going to pick up steam from here, the games are coming still (Animal Crossing is going to be a ridiculous system seller). I think it'll do it by holiday 2021.

This guy got quite a bit of pushback for this post, but this became the most spot-on prediction in this thread. Well done sir!



Switch: SW-3707-5131-3911
XBox: Kenjabish

AJNShelton on 04 May 2021

I voted 2024, how blind was I



mk7sx on 04 May 2021

Early November 2021 I think.

89-90M by end of Jun
95-97M by end of Sep

2.0M Oct
4.0M Nov
7.5M Dec

108-110M by end of year.



Kakadu18 on 04 May 2021

November seems reasonable.
Amazing how things have changed in such a short time span. The PS4 will follow in H1 2022.