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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will Switch pass Wii?

 

When will Switch pass Wii?

Holiday 2021 19 13.48%
 
Early 2022 8 5.67%
 
Mid 2022 13 9.22%
 
Holiday 2022 34 24.11%
 
Early 2023 15 10.64%
 
Mid 2023 10 7.09%
 
Holiday 2023 15 10.64%
 
2024 or later 5 3.55%
 
Never 22 15.60%
 
Total:141
RolStoppable said:
HylianSwordsman said:

I'm not remotely arguing that Nintendo needs third party. I'm arguing that Nintendo looks likely to make a Pro model for the Switch whether it needs it or not, that as the 9th gen goes on that eventually the meager offerings Nintendo gets from 3rd parties will only be ported to the Pro model, and that all of this is fine and you all need to adjust to the reality that will be the Switch Pro because if you really don't care at all about it I doubt it will affect you that much beyond a few games Nintendo makes to take advantage of it and to support it. Stop shoving your narrative onto me, I'm not a "Nintendo needs AAA 3rd party support" guy, I'm just guessing what I think might happen. I'm not trying to pretend I make Nintendo's business decisions for them, or that I begin to understand their logic (I don't most of the time), but I think they're making a Switch Pro and I'm going to buy it if they do, and probably the 3rd parties, whether Nintendo "needs them" or not, are going to make Switch Pro exclusive ports. If I'm wrong and there's no Switch Pro, I'd still bet on the Switch passing Wii. I've never thought otherwise, even when the hybrid console was just a rumor.

But that's based on nothing. This year's rumor started with Digitimes claiming that a new Switch model is in the works, but they didn't say anything about its specifications. The latest tidbit of the rumor mill is that the new Switch model will neither have 4k support nor a significant performance upgrade, despite this new rumor talking about Nintendo and Nvidia having developed a new/updated GPU. What this points towards is not a Pro, but yet another improvement in battery life due to a more energy-efficient architecture.

2020 is shaping up to be a repeat of 2019 where the rumors pointed away from a Pro, but the internet kept expecting a Pro against all reason.

Ok Rol



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Switch needs one thing to keep selling strong; a steady supply of desirable games. If that continues through the next three years, it will outsell Wii. A price cut along the way wouldn't hurt either.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 23 January 2020

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Eagle367 said:
miqdadi said:
The problem it may never pass it

And how likely is that?

Well Nintendo may not care for that result so it may not pass it, they done great supporting Switch but who knows when will they move to the next one, Unlike Sony Nintendo never cared for this all they care about after their console is a success is to sell software and break records with that

Any way I hope it's gonna do it within those coming 3 Years (2020, 2021, & 2022)



Probably mid 2022.



miqdadi said:
Eagle367 said:

And how likely is that?

Well Nintendo may not care for that result so it may not pass it, they done great supporting Switch but who knows when will they move to the next one, Unlike Sony Nintendo never cared for this all they care about after their console is a success is to sell software and break records with that

Any way I hope it's gonna do it within those coming 3 Years (2020, 2021, & 2022)

The DS came out in 2004 and was supported till 2011 at least. The 3ds came out in 2011 and is still being sold even if it's sales are abysmal. Handhelds were always where Ninty excelled and they supported the last 2 for at least 7 years. And now that there is no handheld and home console distinction, they will do the same with their 1 console going forward. 

So switch came out in 2017 and will be supported till at least 2024. A new switch 2 or something might come out in 2023 or 2024 by that metric as well. And with the pace the switch is going at, it's a safe bet that switch will cross Wii by the end of 2022 at the latest. It's outpacing PS4 which started selling in November 2013 and crossed Wii by August 2019. That's 5 years and 9 months. That is literally December 2022 for switch. So switch will most likely do it before that.

I ask you again, how likely is that?



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

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HylianSwordsman said:
Radek said:

That's simply not possible, 51 millions in 23 months?

I agree with you that it's nigh impossible, but lets just have some fun for a bit and fantasize what it would look like. Currently, Switch is at 50 million. Let's say this year is higher than last year, as many expect it to be. Last year was just over 20 million. Let's say it goes up 20%. It's currently tracking a bit better than that, but we'll assume that's just leftover holiday momentum and that a 20% growth year over year is more realistic. That's 24 million, almost halfway there, with a year to go. For his holiday 2021 scenario to happen, 2020 obviously can't be the peak year. The peak would have to happen in 2021. For that to happen, while I'm sure many would disagree and insist that Switch could just do it on its own, I personally think a hardware revision would be necessary, a Switch Pro. Lets say a Switch Pro releases this year, and next year gets an exclusive Mario Kart 9. Coupled with price cuts for the other hardware, a $300 Switch Pro that approaches the level of the original PS4, I think that could keep the 3rd party ports coming and the momentum growing, pushing sales to a final peak of 27 million, passing Wii in holiday 2021. It would take all of the above and a perfect storm of the market liking all of it, but maybe it could happen, and that's what I think it would look like.

Forget it!

Even with state-of-the-art hardware, a 5000 mAh battery wouldn't survive more than an hour, if it even runs that long. Remember that what turned most people off before the new model came out was the lack of battery life, and with such short life, nobody would ever buy it. Also, this would need a bigger cooler, which would make the Switch much heavier and harder to take around with you and play in handheld mode.

Something this powerful may become viable around 2023, but by then, this could just as well end up as a successor instead of a Pro model.

Also, the report that there's a Pro model incoming with Volta GPU part sounds very dubious to me, as Xavier is probably too big and axed towards scientific calculations and AI, not consumer graphics. I think the leaker saw the codenames of the upcoming Xavier Models, saw that is NX (Like the one from the Switch; but it's also short for NVidia Xavier...) and thought that that was coming for Switch Pro.



miqdadi said:
Eagle367 said:

And how likely is that?

Well Nintendo may not care for that result so it may not pass it, they done great supporting Switch but who knows when will they move to the next one, Unlike Sony Nintendo never cared for this all they care about after their console is a success is to sell software and break records with that

Of the 12 systems Nintendo have released to date, I can think of only two, Wii and GBA, that were successful but cut short early.

As Eagle points out, they're still selling the 3DS which is not only approaching its 9th birthday but was much less successful than the Switch.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 25 January 2020

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
miqdadi said:

Well Nintendo may not care for that result so it may not pass it, they done great supporting Switch but who knows when will they move to the next one, Unlike Sony Nintendo never cared for this all they care about after their console is a success is to sell software and break records with that

Of the 12 systems Nintendo have released to date, I can think of only two, Wii and GBA, that were successful but cut short early.

As Eagle points out, there's still selling the 3DS which is not only approaching its 9th birthday but was much less successful than the Switch.

Don't forget the DS. Nintendo panicked an brought the 3DS at a time where the DS was still selling very well. DS still sold over 20M in 2010, and the 3DS released in early 2011 already. Without it, the DS would have outsold the PS2.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
curl-6 said:

Of the 12 systems Nintendo have released to date, I can think of only two, Wii and GBA, that were successful but cut short early.

As Eagle points out, there's still selling the 3DS which is not only approaching its 9th birthday but was much less successful than the Switch.

Don't forget the DS. Nintendo panicked an brought the 3DS at a time where the DS was still selling very well. DS still sold over 20M in 2010, and the 3DS released in early 2011 already. Without it, the DS would have outsold the PS2.

The ds was over 6 years old when the 3ds came out. That isn't panic.



Nu-13 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Don't forget the DS. Nintendo panicked an brought the 3DS at a time where the DS was still selling very well. DS still sold over 20M in 2010, and the 3DS released in early 2011 already. Without it, the DS would have outsold the PS2.

The ds was over 6 years old when the 3ds came out. That isn't panic.

Yes, they panicked. They panicked because the Vita was also about to release, and Nintendo thought they needed a new System to put against it. Otherwise, they would certainly have let the DS continue for longer. I mean, why replace a system that's still pulling over 20M a year?