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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will Switch pass Wii?


When will Switch pass Wii?

Holiday 2021 4 3.20%
Early 2022 8 6.40%
Mid 2022 13 10.40%
Holiday 2022 33 26.40%
Early 2023 15 12.00%
Mid 2023 10 8.00%
Holiday 2023 15 12.00%
2024 or later 5 4.00%
Never 22 17.60%
SpokenTruth said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Yes, they panicked. They panicked because the Vita was also about to release, and Nintendo thought they needed a new System to put against it. Otherwise, they would certainly have let the DS continue for longer. I mean, why replace a system that's still pulling over 20M a year?

That's not panic.  That's preparing for the next generation.  Why push the DS longer just to outsell the PS2 (which means absolutely nothing in business terms) and delay your next generation platform (which alters the software release plans for yourself and every 3rd party developing for it) all while giving massive market share to your rival?

The launch of the 3DS was indeed not panic. It was a combination of wanting to get a headstart on the competition and pushing stereoscopic 3D. The resulting software drought due to the 3DS's early launch wasn't a case of panic, but rather plain stupidity, namely the belief that "software sells hardware" is an outdated concept; Iwata and Miyamoto openly mocked the fundamental wisdom of console sales in the Iwata Asks for the 3DS. They were convinced that 3D on its own would sell the 3DS.

What was panic, however, was the price cut for the 3DS which made it cost about as much as a DSi (XL). The early launch of the 3DS on its own would have not prevented the DS from outselling the PS2, but the price cut made two different generations of systems cost the same, with the newer one being fully backwards compatible. That's what really cut into the legs of the DS.

Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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miqdadi said:
curl-6 said:

Of the 12 systems Nintendo have released to date, I can think of only two, Wii and GBA, that were successful but cut short early.

As Eagle points out, they're still selling the 3DS which is not only approaching its 9th birthday but was much less successful than the Switch.

What determines that is 3rd party support, most likely first party will move to the next project

Even though Nintendo launched the Switch in March 2017 it supported the 3DS in both 2017 and 2018.  Go back and look at the Nintendo Directs from these years and you'll see a short section for 3DS games in the beginning.  Not coincidentally 3DS sales stayed fairly steady throughout 2017 and 2018, nothing impressive, but enough to keep tail end sales alive.  In 2019, they started focusing solely on Switch and that was the year the 3DS sales slowed to a crawl.

Nintendo gave first party support to the 3DS for 8 years, 2011-2018.  If they will do that for a system that only sold 75m then imagine what they will do for the Switch.

This whole idea that Nintendo only supports their systems for 4-5 years then moves on overnight seems to be based solely on their unsuccessful consoles and the Wii, totally ignoring NES, SNES, Gameboy, DS, and 3DS.

DS got Pokemon B&W2 eight years after it launched.

SNES got Kirby's Dreamland 3 seven years after launch.

Gameboy got Pokemon Gold & Silver ten years after launch.

3DS got Ultra Sun & Moon six years after launch.

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.