There has to be some kind of hardware upgrade that's reasonably significant for any of this to make sense. 

What's the point otherwise, they just released a new model Switch with better battery life and they released a smaller model that is more pocket friendly ... so a third actual Switch that isn't some lame home only version would have to do something beyond the existing two models. 

Switch lite is 199$.
A switch tv, should be cheaper to make imo.
I dont think 149$ is out of the question for it.

I am thinking a Switch "Pro" like device, which would be in line with my previous prediction. As I said before, my prediction was not specifically about small upgrades exactly, so this is only a potential step in the direction I was talking about. Ultimately, a potential Switch 2 much further down the line will be telling if I was truly correct or not.

I also stand by the possibility that Nintendo will allow 3rd parties to make versions of more demanding games for this model only, if the base Switch cannot run it. The amount of 3rd parties that would actually do this however would be in question however, due to a multitude of reasons.

What I DON'T  think it will be is a Switch TV, unless it offers a more substantial boost than a potential Switch Pro would.  Also despite being more powerful than a Switch, do not expect any extea 3rd party next gen ports to be exclusive to it.  At that point, being tied to a TV gets rid of any reason to go with the Switch version of ANYTHING unless it is your only device as even with a proper boost, it still will not run as good as other devices tied to a TV.  Meanwhile a potential Switch Pro still has the ability to push portability as a factor, which is why exclusive 3rd party ports would make sense on a full Switch Pro rather than a Switch TV.

i'll wait for the next zelda before i buy one

If they were to do a "Switch Pro" with better specs, the way they could get around the issue of splintered userbase is to do this

Pro Switch Specs:

393 GFLOPS undocked (which is the current Switch's docked performance)
800 GFLOPS docked (new higher performance mode for TV)

So old Switch models can't run these games, right? Well not neccessarily.

You can run these games on the older Switch models, but only the 393 GFLOP profile version of the game would run. This isn't impossible, it would just necessitate a battery pak when you are playing portably.

But this is really not a big deal, one can buy a 4500 MaH battery bank for $15, Nintendo could even offer an official one.

This way, games would run across all models, but the Pro model would be getting the better docked home performance is all.

Homebrewers on Switch are able to to get the undocked Switch to run at docked speed ... the system is fine, it doesn't overheat or anything. They're doing stuff like getting The Witcher 3 running at 60 fps undocked. It's just you lose battery life and that could be fairly easily augmented because batteries are dirt cheap and widely available. 

Well essentially a Switch Pro would pick up 3rd party games that the current model isn't even getting. If this system does come out months before PS5 and Series X, but has the Switch OG hype pushing it through the holiday season. Theres a good chance even starting a zero, it could garner a pretty sizable install base in comparison to Sony and Microsoft.  A good chunk of original Switch owners would gladly upgrade to a worthwhile refresh if its an option...

3rd parties would not do it for a Switch TV.  The main reason anyone would buy those games (portability) would no longer be a factor, and therefore pointless as it would still likely perform similar at BEST to the base PS4.

They would allow 3rd parties to do it for a Switch Pro however, because being a smaller install base out of the gate does not really mean much.  If a smaller starting install base being a problem were true, devs would not bother to dev games for next gen consoles out of the gate either.

As far as how many 3rd party devs would actually do this, I have no comment on as it is hard to say.  It would be a risk taken on a popular hybrid concept, and it would be up to the developer to decide if they want to take said risk or not.  I simply saying Nintendo would ALLOW them to do it.  Continued support would be based on how well the "pro" model would sell, and how well the software sells for the 3rd party devs that gave it a shot.  Remember, many thought no one would buy games like Witcher 3 or Mortal Kombat on Switch...but here we are in a time when both have sold at least fairly decent based on top 30 digital games and developer reports.

That is not the exact same situation, but my point is that if there is potential, there will be at least some that test the waters.  Where it goes from there is anyone's guess.

However it is also safe to say that devs would be more inclined to at least try to make such ports run on the OG model as well due to the established install base, and that only releasing a "pro only" version would be a last resort.

The Lite would melt though.

Switch is underclocked. Most of Nintendo's big games already run @1080p60 so wouldn't need a boost however it would give 3rd parties an option to patch or make exclusives for stock/overclocked speeds on a Switch-TV that isn't constrained by heat anymore.

edit-they wouldn't necessarily be exclusive, they'd just run and look like crap in portable mode.

That sounds like a terrible idea or something that would be reserved for very few exclusives like the new 3ds.

People really need to stop with this. Hardware isn't the reason switch isn't getting certain games and even if it was, the switch is what it is. Games exclusive to a hardware revision are very niche due to limited installed base.