Definitely $199 minimum for a hypothetical Switch TV, but such a console may as well be modified and ditch the SSD storage in favor of an HDD because portability doesn't need to be considered anymore. For example, Switch TV with a 500 GB HDD and Pro Controller for $249-279.
Hmm yeah interesting, I wonder if they will make a TV-only Switch. I'm guessing there have gotta be a few million gamers who like the Switch but don't ever take it outside their home, and for those that have already bought a Switch might even buy a TV-only version if it gave superior performance on top notch games like Zelda. If Nintendo did go this route, I agree that they'd probably sell it for $250 with a much larger hard drive, and offer whatever slight upgrades needed to make something like Zelda run at peak performance.
I think it's more likely we'll see a premium version of the OG Switch though, rather than a TV-only version. Bigger hard drive, slightly improved performance, maybe bigger higher res screen, with the battery capacity of the updated model of the original. The only thing is where would they price this? Would they finally give Switch a price cut and put the premium version at $300? Or would they keep Switch at $300 since it is selling faster than anything since Wii/DS and sell the premium one for like $350? I feel like a higher price point than $300 would kinda kill sales. My guess is a price cut to $250 for the original, and a premium version with more disk space, slightly improved performance, and bigger better screen for $300.