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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 26 October 2019

KBG29 said:
curl-6 said:

Switch 36% up YOY, very nice.

So much for claims that 2018 would be its peak year.

Really? Who would have thought 2018 was peak?

I think we could have made a pretty strong case for 2019 being the peak year as far back as 2017, but was there ever really a case to be made for 2018?

With a proper Pokemon title this year, the Lite model, and very likely a good Black Friday deal, combine with the introduction on PS5 and XB4 in 2020, I think it is almost a certainty that 2019 will be the peak for Switch.

The only question going forward is, is it the next DS, or will it follow in the foot steps of Wii and 3DS, and just hit a wall?

Wait, in the middle of last year, you said that Switch would never pass Xbox One. Wouldn't that make you one of those people?

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8849104



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It is going to be a really strong holiday season for the Nintendo Switch, while all other platforms continue to decline. This will likely be the last couple of months of us tracking the PS Vita as sales are almost non-existent in Japan as it is no longer manufactured.



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StarDoor said:
KBG29 said:

Really? Who would have thought 2018 was peak?

I think we could have made a pretty strong case for 2019 being the peak year as far back as 2017, but was there ever really a case to be made for 2018?

With a proper Pokemon title this year, the Lite model, and very likely a good Black Friday deal, combine with the introduction on PS5 and XB4 in 2020, I think it is almost a certainty that 2019 will be the peak for Switch.

The only question going forward is, is it the next DS, or will it follow in the foot steps of Wii and 3DS, and just hit a wall?

Wait, in the middle of last year, you said that Switch would never pass Xbox One. Wouldn't that make you one of those people?

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8849104

There is some gold in that thread.

It also looks like the most popular choice (Q3 or Q4 of 2019) is going to be correct....so good on 32% of us.



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ninjapirate42 said:
Any guesses on what week Switch passes the Xbox this year? I think by week ending Dec 21st it should do the trick.

Probably even earlier than that, I don't see the XBO sell well this BF anymore. Switch, on the other hand...



SpokenTruth said:
StarDoor said:

Wait, in the middle of last year, you said that Switch would never pass Xbox One. Wouldn't that make you one of those people?

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8849104

There is some gold in that thread.

It also looks like the most popular choice (Q3 or Q4 of 2019) is going to be correct....so good on 32% of us.

That wasn't even the only thread of that type the was another one with even more replies.



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trunkswd said:
MasonADC said:
With all these adjustments that have happen today, I am losing track of these sales fast lol

With the new shipment figures from Nintendo some adjustments had to be made. Same with the PS4 with the latest shipment figures. 

Why not only the last quarter, but the weeks of October have been so strongly adjusted ? Have you adjusted your extrapolation model so Q3 were affected too by the calculation ?



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JWeinCom said:
trunkswd said:

Depending on what big releases Nintendo has planned for 2020, the peak year will likely be 2019 or 2020. Who knows when BotW 2 and Metroid Prime 4 will release. 

Metroid is 2021 at the earliest.  Honestly wouldn't be surprised if it winds up cross-gen like BOTW did.

I always thought that actually, that the game had to be reset to be developed according to the capacities of the next gen console.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
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Western record on TGM3 EASY : 1484
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

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StarDoor said:
KBG29 said:

Really? Who would have thought 2018 was peak?

I think we could have made a pretty strong case for 2019 being the peak year as far back as 2017, but was there ever really a case to be made for 2018?

With a proper Pokemon title this year, the Lite model, and very likely a good Black Friday deal, combine with the introduction on PS5 and XB4 in 2020, I think it is almost a certainty that 2019 will be the peak for Switch.

The only question going forward is, is it the next DS, or will it follow in the foot steps of Wii and 3DS, and just hit a wall?

Wait, in the middle of last year, you said that Switch would never pass Xbox One. Wouldn't that make you one of those people?

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8849104

Wow, thanks for setting me straight. I don't know what I was thinking when I wrote that. 



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Amnesia said:
JWeinCom said:

Metroid is 2021 at the earliest.  Honestly wouldn't be surprised if it winds up cross-gen like BOTW did.

I always thought that actually, that the game had to be reset to be developed according to the capacities of the next gen console.

I doubt that.  If it was just a matter of tech specs, they could have just delayed it without switching development to retro.  I think the official story, that it just wasn't turning out very good, is probably the most likely.  Still, I think making Metroid a cross gen title might be best for the franchise as a whole anyway, so hopefully it works out.



KBG29 said:
StarDoor said:

Wait, in the middle of last year, you said that Switch would never pass Xbox One. Wouldn't that make you one of those people?

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8849104

Wow, thanks for setting me straight. I don't know what I was thinking when I wrote that. 

Don't sweat it, we all get things wrong sometimes. In January 2017 I predicted Switch wouldn't outsell the Gamecube.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.