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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 26 October 2019

JWeinCom on 01 November 2019
curl-6 said:
JWeinCom said:

Metroid is 2021 at the earliest.  Honestly wouldn't be surprised if it winds up cross-gen like BOTW did.

Considering they're still hiring for roles like character modeler, I'd say even 2021 is extremely unlikely. 2023 maybe.

Possibly.  It depends if they can salvage anything at all from the work Namco was doing or if they're truly starting fresh.  Assuming they're starting from a completely blank canvas, 2023 would be about a 4-5 year development cycle which is a little on the long end.  2022 seems like the safest bet to me.  



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StarDoor on 01 November 2019
KBG29 said:
curl-6 said:

Switch 36% up YOY, very nice.

So much for claims that 2018 would be its peak year.

Really? Who would have thought 2018 was peak?

I think we could have made a pretty strong case for 2019 being the peak year as far back as 2017, but was there ever really a case to be made for 2018?

With a proper Pokemon title this year, the Lite model, and very likely a good Black Friday deal, combine with the introduction on PS5 and XB4 in 2020, I think it is almost a certainty that 2019 will be the peak for Switch.

The only question going forward is, is it the next DS, or will it follow in the foot steps of Wii and 3DS, and just hit a wall?

Wait, in the middle of last year, you said that Switch would never pass Xbox One. Wouldn't that make you one of those people?

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8849104



Bofferbrauer2 on 02 November 2019
ninjapirate42 said:
Any guesses on what week Switch passes the Xbox this year? I think by week ending Dec 21st it should do the trick.

Probably even earlier than that, I don't see the XBO sell well this BF anymore. Switch, on the other hand...



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Wyrdness on 02 November 2019
SpokenTruth said:
StarDoor said:

Wait, in the middle of last year, you said that Switch would never pass Xbox One. Wouldn't that make you one of those people?

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8849104

There is some gold in that thread.

It also looks like the most popular choice (Q3 or Q4 of 2019) is going to be correct....so good on 32% of us.

That wasn't even the only thread of that type the was another one with even more replies.



Amnesia on 02 November 2019
trunkswd said:
MasonADC said:
With all these adjustments that have happen today, I am losing track of these sales fast lol

With the new shipment figures from Nintendo some adjustments had to be made. Same with the PS4 with the latest shipment figures. 

Why not only the last quarter, but the weeks of October have been so strongly adjusted ? Have you adjusted your extrapolation model so Q3 were affected too by the calculation ?



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Amnesia on 02 November 2019
JWeinCom said:
trunkswd said:

Depending on what big releases Nintendo has planned for 2020, the peak year will likely be 2019 or 2020. Who knows when BotW 2 and Metroid Prime 4 will release. 

Metroid is 2021 at the earliest.  Honestly wouldn't be surprised if it winds up cross-gen like BOTW did.

I always thought that actually, that the game had to be reset to be developed according to the capacities of the next gen console.



KBG29 on 02 November 2019
StarDoor said:
KBG29 said:

Really? Who would have thought 2018 was peak?

I think we could have made a pretty strong case for 2019 being the peak year as far back as 2017, but was there ever really a case to be made for 2018?

With a proper Pokemon title this year, the Lite model, and very likely a good Black Friday deal, combine with the introduction on PS5 and XB4 in 2020, I think it is almost a certainty that 2019 will be the peak for Switch.

The only question going forward is, is it the next DS, or will it follow in the foot steps of Wii and 3DS, and just hit a wall?

Wait, in the middle of last year, you said that Switch would never pass Xbox One. Wouldn't that make you one of those people?

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8849104

Wow, thanks for setting me straight. I don't know what I was thinking when I wrote that. 



Stop hate, let others live the life they were given. Everyone has their problems, and no one should have to feel ashamed for the way they were born. Be proud of who you are, encourage others to be proud of themselves. Learn, research, absorb everything around you. Nothing is meaningless, a purpose is placed on everything no matter how you perceive it. Discover how to love, and share that love with everything that you encounter. Help make existence a beautiful thing.

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10/03/2010 

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JWeinCom on 02 November 2019
Amnesia said:
JWeinCom said:

Metroid is 2021 at the earliest.  Honestly wouldn't be surprised if it winds up cross-gen like BOTW did.

I always thought that actually, that the game had to be reset to be developed according to the capacities of the next gen console.

I doubt that.  If it was just a matter of tech specs, they could have just delayed it without switching development to retro.  I think the official story, that it just wasn't turning out very good, is probably the most likely.  Still, I think making Metroid a cross gen title might be best for the franchise as a whole anyway, so hopefully it works out.



curl-6 on 02 November 2019
KBG29 said:
StarDoor said:

Wait, in the middle of last year, you said that Switch would never pass Xbox One. Wouldn't that make you one of those people?

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8849104

Wow, thanks for setting me straight. I don't know what I was thinking when I wrote that. 

Don't sweat it, we all get things wrong sometimes. In January 2017 I predicted Switch wouldn't outsell the Gamecube.



Dulfite on 02 November 2019
KBG29 said:
curl-6 said:

Switch 36% up YOY, very nice.

So much for claims that 2018 would be its peak year.

Really? Who would have thought 2018 was peak?

I think we could have made a pretty strong case for 2019 being the peak year as far back as 2017, but was there ever really a case to be made for 2018?

With a proper Pokemon title this year, the Lite model, and very likely a good Black Friday deal, combine with the introduction on PS5 and XB4 in 2020, I think it is almost a certainty that 2019 will be the peak for Switch.

The only question going forward is, is it the next DS, or will it follow in the foot steps of Wii and 3DS, and just hit a wall?

First year buyers, and particularly first few months buyers (I suspect PS5 and XB4 will launch late 2020 for holidays perhaps), are usually just the hardcores. More casuals will wait until the software lineup fills a bit more, for marketing to focus on them, and for price cuts on consoles/games. I think, if these two launch late enough 2020, that 2020 could perhaps be Switch's peak year with a price cut, potential pro version released, and the insane sellability/legs of Animal Crossing. And you never know, they could have a Pokemon remake planned for holiday 2020 of Diamon/Pearl for all we know.