Barkley said:
BOTW outshipped Mario again last quarter though, so it should overtake eventually though. He also might be including WiiU numbers. |
Thank you!
You have to include the WiiU numbers because both versions were released at the same time.
Valdney said:
Thank you! You have to include the WiiU numbers because both versions were released at the same time. |
I am on-board with the idea that Breath of the Wild will hit 20 millions. The largest threat to that happening would be if Breath of the Wild 2. It’s hard to say, sometimes sequels help the older games (like Just Dance, where sequels heavily boosted the older sales) and sometimes they cannibalize them (like GTA PS2 where the older games stopped selling when newer ones came out).
I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.
Jumpin said:
I am on-board with the idea that Breath of the Wild will hit 20 millions. The largest threat to that happening would be if Breath of the Wild 2. It’s hard to say, sometimes sequels help the older games (like Just Dance, where sequels heavily boosted the older sales) and sometimes they cannibalize them (like GTA PS2 where the older games stopped selling when newer ones came out). |
Because these games are shits, don't forget that SONY brought the concept of "garbage video game". Once a sequel comes, the previous episode instantly loses all its value, which is really opposite for Nintendo. Ocarina is today a shitty useless thing compared to Breath of the Wild, but still it is an even more respected game than the newer.
Can we expect 30M Mario kart 8 deluxe lifetime?
For now, seems 25M is a given.
About Zelda, I don't think botw2 would impact botw sales. Part of newcomers that would buy Zelda botw would buy both now, because don't seems that botw2 is going to replace botw, like a mk9 would with 8.
| jonathanalis said: Can we expect 30M Mario kart 8 deluxe lifetime? For now, seems 25M is a given. About Zelda, I don't think botw2 would impact botw sales. Part of newcomers that would buy Zelda botw would buy both now, because don't seems that botw2 is going to replace botw, like a mk9 would with 8. |
30M is possible, but not very certain. Yeah, 25 million seems pretty given. 22 million at the very least is very likely.
I really want Mario Kart 9. I've had Mario Kart 8 since I got a Wii U in June 2014. I even caved and got Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, but I got a decent discount on it.
To me, Mario Kart 9 could release in 2021 or later and not steal too much of MK8D's sales. Maybe Nintendo could introduce Nintendo Selects by then, with MK8D as a budget title, and 9 as a full-price new release.
Waiting all the way until 2022-2024 for the Switch 2 to launch, and then getting a new Mario Kart after it launches seems agonizing to me. There's plenty to put in MK9. Bring back dual drivers and mission mode, and add some new characters, bring some back, etc. There's plenty of material for another new game on Switch.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)
PS5: 122 million (was 105 million, then 115 million) Xbox Series X/S: 38 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million. then 40 million)
Switch 2: 120 million (was 116 million)
PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)
3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)
"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima
Bofferbrauer2 said:
They are updating the numbers right now. Possibly you got to read the updated numbers, but still the old total sales? |
No no..That was more stupid than that. I had simply counted only completed trimesters. I was missing the 2 first weeks of this July.
403,074 
Smash Ultimate should pass 20 million lifetime.
BOTW may or may not, but the mere fact we're discussing the possibility of a Zelda game topping 20 million is insane.
Just from the games we know of so far, Splatoon 2, Mario Maker 2, Sword/Shield, and Animal Crossing will all pass 10 million, adding to the five games already in the 8-figures club. Heck, even Super Mario Party could get there in the long run.
Currently the record for the most 10-million-plus sellers on a Nintendo system is a tie between the Wii and DS at 10 games each. Switch looks almost certain to bust that record.
RolStoppable said:
Switch is strong in Japan and the USA, that's the two biggest console markets and they can offset shortcomings in smaller markets quite easily. In Japan and the USA combined, Switch might very well beat the PS4 by 20m+ units lifetime. The PS4 needs a lot of other countries to merely level the playing field, hence why the two consoles are tracking at a similar pace worldwide. Comparing full fiscal years:
It's a bit premature to draw the conclusion you did, based on only two complete years. Through the first two years the PS4 has an advantage of 0.5m, but it also received a $50 price cut during that time. Year 3 has yet to be seen if Nintendo only manages what they have forecasted. |
Amnesia said:
Because these games are shits, don't forget that SONY brought the concept of "garbage video game". Once a sequel comes, the previous episode instantly loses all its value, which is really opposite for Nintendo. Ocarina is today a shitty useless thing compared to Breath of the Wild, but still it is an even more respected game than the newer. |
I don't mean to sound rude, but are you drunk?
I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.
PS4's year 4/5/6 are quite impressive, I don't see the Switch being able to keep pace with that unless some out of left field happens.
The PS4 Pro has definitely helped Sony be able to enjoy better legs in the back cycle of the product cycle, and their 15 million target this fiscal year is probably low balling it as they did last year. They just have a much broader range of franchise properties that are continually introduced because of the overall breadth of developer support.
You look at 2018 and 2019 alone and the PS4 got/is getting things like Spider-Man, Red Dead Redemption 2, Sekiro, Monster Hunter World, Final Fantasy VII Remake (which is basically its own thing), Kingdom Hearts 3, Devil May Cry 5, Cyberpunk 2077, Days Gone, Death Stranding as new franchise entries to the PS4 that late in the life cycle. Rather than having to rely continually on just GTA, FIFA, Call of Duty, Uncharted, Destiny, NBA 2K, Resident Evil, Final Fantasy (non-VII), Gran Turismo, Metal Gear Solid, etc. which have already appeared on the system.
Whereas Nintendo is going to basically have used up most of its AAA IP by the time Animal Crossing releases next March and then is going to likely have to double/triple dip into its franchise stable. Sony just has a much deeper pool of IPs they can draw on to keep sales high without having to use the same 10-12 properties two or three times and they have a Pro model which I think has given them a solid boost for the back half of their product cycle. That's tough to keep pace with.
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