Nintendo quarterly results (Switch 36.87 million)

[Agente42]

RolStoppable said:

Farsala said:

It's true they are currently very close. However, regionally Switch will have less legs imo. In terms of Switch vs PS4, Switch's strength is Japan and Japan can only give so much.

If we are going with 1 to 1 comparisons, then I simply prefer FY 12 month comparisons. For PS4 it was X, 14.8, 20, 19, 16 and etc. For Switch it was X, 15, 17, and a prediction of 18. So Switch's highest years are being outpaced by PS4's highest years. In order for Switch to exceed or match the PS4, I would expect a FY prediction of 20m+ in the next few years.

It's not that I don't expect a price cut, I just expect it to be after 40 months, which is too late.

Switch is strong in Japan and the USA, that's the two biggest console markets and they can offset shortcomings in smaller markets quite easily. In Japan and the USA combined, Switch might very well beat the PS4 by 20m+ units lifetime. The PS4 needs a lot of other countries to merely level the playing field, hence why the two consoles are tracking at a similar pace worldwide.

Comparing full fiscal years:

Year	PS4	Switch	Notes
1	14.8m	15.05m	-
2	17.7m	16.95m	PS4 receives $50 price cut
3	20.0m	18.00m (projected)	PS4 receives $50 price cut, Slim revision, and Pro revision introduced at $399 Switch remains at $299, sees introduction of Lite revision at $199
4	19.0m	TBD	-
5	17.8m	TBD	-
6	15.0m (projected)	TBD	-

It's a bit premature to draw the conclusion you did, based on only two complete years. Through the first two years the PS4 has an advantage of 0.5m, but it also received a $50 price cut during that time. Year 3 has yet to be seen if Nintendo only manages what they have forecasted.

The Nintendo Switch has not yet achieved the sales speed of the handheld line, as it did with DS, GBA and GBC. This way, it is still selling as a desktop console. Will Switch Lite make this possible? I do not know.