Im going to wait after e3 and see how much content the game have and the reception it gets.

I picked 1.4-1.6m, but I've really got no sense for how this game will sell. I do think they need to promote it better next time. The last Direct made it seem like a "meh" game among a pile of gems.

Three Houses is tracking great, Fire Emblem constantly has commercials over here in Japan, and the last few entries in the series have done very well (even Warriors did better than I thought it would; not as well as I think it deserves though). I'm guessing 2m first quarter. 4-5m LT, maybe more if it's good, and marketed properly.

That was only Fates. Echoes only had one version (as did Warriors, albeit it released on two consoles)

I think it'll probably sell around 1.5m and selling over 2m after holiday.
If reception is good, advertising is well done and it's promoted via Fire Emblem Heroes and considering the attachment rate of Switch first party titles, I could even see it doing over 2m in two months and over 3m this year.

FE Three Houses has a extremely interesting setting, seems that it will be high quality(at least thats my impression), and it will be able to take advantage of the Switch Effect.

So if we are talking about 2 months worth of sale(since we will get the info in October with sales ending late September), it will easily top 2 million units.Hell, I would go as far as to say that it will pass 3 millions, assuming the game has at least a score of 85 metacritic.

OK, according to VGC this game shipped 2.2 million:
http://www.vgchartz.com/game/222154/fire-emblem-three-houses/game

I see I was WAY too conservative with my options here.