|Train wreck said:
Why are you sighing?
Impossible to know for sure but considering that PS2+XB, PS3+360 and PS4+XBO are all going to sell roughly the same amount than we can make a safe conclusion that the more one sells, the less the other will sell.
If XBO didn't have such a terrible PR disaster at the beginning of the generation than maybe it would finish the gen around 70m instead of the 50-55m its headed for so PS4 would likely sell something like ~110m instead of the 125-130m its headed for.
Who knows, my only point was that Sony making good choices wasnt the only thing that has helped PS4 sell so well but also MS making terrible choices with XBO.
The same thing applies to other generations. 360 was able to steal a huge amount of the PS2 audience not only because it was a good console but also because Sony made huge mistakes with PS3 early on that took a long time to overcome.
Another example, PS1 was such a huge hit not only because it was a good console but also because Nintendo essentially handed them all 3rd party support by going with cartridges and Sega in general was an absolute mess at the time.
History has shown that it's not enough to just make a good console if you want to steal your competitors audience,, they also need to make mistakes in order for their fanbase to Switch sides.
So a decent/excellent PR launch for the XBO (and Wii U...ill get to that on my next post) would account for up to 15-20 million less PS4's being sold?! The base XBO would still have the very major problem of being technically inferior to the base PS4 (900p vs 1080p in most early games...and still to this day)...those predate any PR reveal. Are you saying that the buying public would have opted for a less powerful machine despite the same price?
Also where would the gains happen at the expense of the PS4? Europe, Middle East, Africa, Central/South America, Mexico, Canada, AsiaxJapan, Japan? I think a better proposition PS4 would outsell a better proposition XBO any day in those territories and given that the XBO wasn't even available in many of those countries at launch (is that part of the PR problem as well?), the PS4 would have the upper hand anyway.
So that leaves the US. the 20M unit gap for the Xbox360/PS3 made sense, the PS3 was poorly received and never fully recovered...but if we are talking about good reveals for both, is that number still 20 million? The Xbox 360 had a major second wind with Kinect, would the same be said for the One? There are lots of variables besides launches that count towards that final number.
People post here often that a better PR/received XBO and Wii U would mean lower PS4 sales and never quantify it. My first reaction is that the better outcomes of both would have amounted to something insignificant because a better proposition for the PS4 means it would sell more on that merit alone, greater than the impact of its competition doing well.
If it resulted in 15-20 million higher XBO sales than yes I do believe so. The always online, no used games, Kinect required, TV focus, "2nd tier" countries, $499 price tag, etc resulted in huge backlash for XBO. These things didnt just make XBO less appealing, they also made the "games first" message from Sony look like some forward thinking, pro-consumer stance when it would have just been seen as the standard, logical focus if Microsoft didnt make all those strange blunders.
The sales would have came from a bit of everywhere. US+UK sales are ~30m vs ~35m in PS4 favor, these countries were very pro-Xbox last generation so without the massive blunders than perhaps it would be switched with the slight lead going in XBO favor.
As for other places, I fully agree that PS4 would still dominate but XBO would be closer. Outside of US/UK sales are ~12m vs ~58m in PS4 favor. Perhaps that would be closer to 20m vs 50m. Still a very dominate performance from PS4.
That would put current sales at ~55m vs ~80m instead of ~42m vs ~94m
No I dont think a 2nd wind like 360 had would take place which is why I'm guessing ~70m lifetime rather than the ~85m that 360 did. And yes there are more variables than launch but major launch mistakes many times will stick with you for the whole generation. It's a snowball affect where once people think one is the superior choice than it just continues to escalate and fixing your mistakes only helps soften the blow rather than reverse the trend.
Like I said in my last post, history has shown that it takes more than just good decisions to steal your competitors userbase. PS1 would not have been able to steal so much of the SNES/Genesis userbase without the poor decisions Nintendo/Sega made and 360 would not have been able to steal so much of the PS2 userbase without the poor decisions Sony made. The PS4 vs XBO situation is simply another example of history repeating itself.