I love the planted evidence route Trump world is going for, that line is going to setup really bad for Trump and especially his lawyers if they keep peddling that line. The truly fun part about this whole thing is the push for Trump to release the search warrant since he is making all these claims. I wonder if he will do it but there is a big chance he will not since he is already campaigning for donations on this so leaving people in the dark would be the best situation.

So I was thinking that Trump actually might have really played himself. If the rumors are true and there was an informant, than the FBI pretty much set Trump up. From reading all the reports, somewhere in June the FBI went to Mar and Trump personally showed them the basement where he kept his documents. If Trump still had any confidential docs, this was the moment he was suppose to give them up. After this meeting, we get a search warrant to go and get those documents. Having enough proof that the documents exist and that the only way to obtain them was this search warrant was probably due to the visit in June. You have an informant who has proof the documents exist, you went to look and Trump hid the documents then you use that evidence to go and get it. If this is how this went down, Trump truly played himself and fell into the trap.

Like I stated, Garland is playing Trump and it appears that they understood exactly how he would respond as well as the GOP. Trump could have released the search warrant himself but he did not because as we know, leading people on ignorance is much better than giving they any truth. With Trump and all his allies including his lawyers making their claims, Garland put in motion to publicaly release the search warrant. So now Trump and his lawyers are in a bind. You contend against the public release of the warrant and look guilty or you let it go through and let the public decide if the search warrant was relevant. This is playing out like some crazy Anime or Soap opera, when is the made for TV movie going to go into production.

Well Trump tactics has always been that he believes that he can make pretty obvious lies that anyone could fact check but will not because he gave them an out "Fake News". Its a glorious strategy and you have to give him credit on using it because it allows him to lie without any real consequences to his base. The problem for Trump is that in order for this to succeed he needs right wing media to go along with it. If at any time right win media sours to him then the house of cards unravels.

I agree its going to be really hard to put a spin on having multiple chances to hand over those docs especially if they pertain higher than classified which means he cannot declassify. If their are national security docs about nukes the optics really look very bad and he basically just gave his opponents all kinds of talking points. It just seems so completely boneheaded but the GOP continue to dig their grave riding this horse right off the cliff.

The warrant has been released with a list of what has been confiscated:

gov.uscourts.flsd.617854.17.0_10.pdf (courtlistener.com)

Not a ton of new information, but this confirms all the reports stating that top secret information was obtained. I don't see how this wouldn't just be an easy guilty verdict at this point. I suppose Trump could try to make argue that he declassed this information, but "I secretly declassed stuff when I was President" isn't a very compelling argument given that there is a process for these things.

The Department of Justice announced today that they are now investigating the Southern Baptist Convention for decades of alleged sexual abuse cover-ups.

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/religion/2022/08/12/southern-baptist-convention-2022-sexual-abuse-doj-investigation-report/10311282002/

Republicans are already calling it religious persecution.

https://fb.watch/eSLd2YfnOD/?mibextid=y5Hli4

From what I gather there are some docs that cannot just be declassified because of National security.  The thing is the investigation does not seem to be concentrating so much on classification then that these documents were kept illegally.  Since Trump does not own those documents and the NARA even subpoena him for these documents shows a willfulness to keep those documents.  Investigators even went on his property to confirm he does not have these docs which put Trump in serious legal risk because he had a chance to turn them over before this whole thing blew up.  Now Trump is hoping the GOP stand behind him which for the GOP could actually put the whole party at risk.

Looking how this all unfolded, it would seem that Trump has given the Dems and Garland a golden egg as he moves from one lie or defense to another.  If we remember he was first trying to claim the FBI planted evidence.  Now he is trying to say that what they found he auto declassified but that defense actually doesn't work because the FBI isn't really going that route.  He lied himself in a corner as a private citizen without the protection of the president office and I believe he has seriously played himself this time.

After reading a few articles on the subject of the docs Trump had in his possession, I noticed how his story changed once the search warrant was release. First it was a raid, then we found it it was a search warrant. Next Trump and his lawyers try to suggest that evidence was planted but this does not really fly because the government tracks all documents, who has them and when they get returned. Meaning that its impossible to plant something that is already shone to be in your possession.

So when the search warrant was released, Trump changed his tune and now those planted docs were all declassified. The problem for Trump is that the search warrant and charges did not care about their classification but instead that he still had documents no matter their classification in his possession that were not his to take. Even worse for Trump they found exactly the documents they were looking for which included docs even the president cannot declassify. So now Trump has changed his statements again saying all presidents take home their work etc. Problem with this defense is that 18 months since he left office, being subpoena for those documents shows a willfulness to keep those documents he is required to give back to the government. The fact that the government got a signed statement from his lawyer saying he returned everything is pretty damming.

I guess the real big issue is will the DOJ actually seek criminal charges or will they just be happy with getting the stuff they were looking for and end it at that. Even if the DOJ could get a conviction would it be worth it. Personally, if they have the evidence they should present it and go forward. Forget about politics and proceed as they would if this was another employee of the government who tried to take documents from the US.

There was no reason for Trump to keep some of those documents even if you believe he was keeping them for keepsakes. Its not like you can just allow anyone to look at SCI/TS documents once you are out of office and even an ex-president cannot view them once he leaves office. This was a very dumb thing Trump has done and I am sure he will look to find a fall guy but who in their right mind would look at 5 to 10 years in prison.

Random note but for all the downplaying by the right about the severity of January 6th, it's telling that just mentioning that date lets people know what you're talking about. That's pretty rare for American culture and puts it in the company of days like 9/11 or July 4th. Obviously the 6th isn't as well known as those days, but we'll see if it stands the test of time.

Here is an article that explains why Trump cannot just wave a magic wand and make documents concerning nuclear weapons declassfied.

https://www.emptywheel.net/2022/08/12/the-legal-and-political-significance-of-nuclear-documents-trump-is-suspected-to-have-stolen/