I'm from a military family and I have some pretty strong feelings about the Taliban's recent takeover of Afghanistan that I feel like airing tonight. First, let's get the academic shit out of the way.
POST-TALIBAN VICTORY POLLING:
Remember a month ago when I pointed out the downward trend in President Biden's popular support and highlighted a bunch of the demographic changes in who was supporting him? Well that trend has sped up this last month to the point that he's now actually underwater for the first time in the current moving average of polls. Biden currently averages the support of 47.8% of Americans, while a larger 48.6% now disapprove of the job he's doing as president.
Although some of this recent shift is likely owed to things like increasing worries about the rising cost of living (which has outpaced wage growth all year), the coronavirus continuing to spread at faster and faster rates across the country and the consequences of that, ongoing concerns about rising rates of violent crime and the perpetually chaotic situation at the southern border since Biden took office, most of the drop from last month's support levels has occurred in just the last week, which strongly indicates that the difference is primarily owed to the Taliban taking over Afghanistan last Sunday.
The single most representative poll in the current sample is the latest one conducted by the Economist and YouGov, which has Biden exactly tied. A visit to pages 196-8 reveals that the demographic trends I highlighted last month have largely continued in this poll, with the difference that support for Biden and the Democrats has now also dropped (slightly) among white people and men as well. The biggest concern here should be the continued erosion of support from groups that form key Democratic voting blocks.
2020 Biden vote vs. current Biden approval levels among...
Black people: 87% vs. 63%
Hispanic people: 65% vs. 44%
Working class people: 55% vs. 41%
Middle class people: 56% vs. 46%
Women: 57% vs. 47%
Moderates: 64% vs. 54%
An overwhelming majority of Americans had favored withdrawing the last U.S. troops from Afghanistan back in April, but support for doing so fell by 20 points to 49% over the course of the summer as the Taliban failed to adhere to the terms of the peace deal we'd struck with them and instead began just seizing territory, along with American weapons and military equipment, as we pulled out. The most pointed consequence is that the Economist/YouGov poll linked above shows that barely more than a third of Americans remain confident in President Biden's ability to handle an international crisis (see page 214).
MY FEELINGS ABOUT RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN AFGHANISTAN
Okay, so now that we've established that many, many Americans consider the Taliban seizing Kabul to be a bad thing that probably shouldn't have been allowed to happen, let me say why I agree.
Like I said before, military service runs in my family. My dad fought in the Vietnam War as part of that tradition. He didn't believe in the cause, but he did believe in a concept called patriotic duty. I didn't really understand that much as a kid when he tried to explain it to me. The war severely damaged his ability to function on multiple levels and he never really recovered. He degenerated into alcoholism and was physically abusive to me and my mom. He eventually died in a car accident (yep, alcohol involved). As I grew into my teen and early adult years, I sought to distance myself from his way of viewing life as much as I could. This eventually landed me in the orbit of a series of Maoist type organizations, one of which, called the Leading Light Communist Organization, I eventually joined. For six months. It was a tiny, misogynistic leader cult of about 25 internet zombies mostly living in Denver, Colorado; about 20 guys, five women (including myself), mostly white, entirely controlled by one man. The worldview of the LLCO held that the American working class has no potential for communist revolution because it has all been bought off with plunder and spoils stolen from Third World countries. We had stats. So many stats!! Accordingly, the group's goal was to somehow lead a global revolution based in the Third World that would conclude with the invasion and conquest of the United States from without and the dispersing of its population to Third World countries as essentially slave labor. Then I learned about the methods we were going to use. We were going to sell drugs and essentially be a street gang, much like our fearless leader, "Prairie Fire" (he never disclosed his real name to ordinary members because security), was still on probation for. This struck a bad tone for me as a recovering addict. The dude second in command (like that meant anything) was a white rapper who regularly performed on Russian state television and had his own psychotic radio program. A stripper lady who purportedly also worked for the CIA was to be our public face going forward. *shrugs* I had a brain, so I ditched and began a process of reassessing my life and worldview that I'd say is currently ongoing. Point though being that I'm familiar with the "anti-imperialist" mode of thinking.
Defending the Taliban was part of what we did at the LLCO. We explained about their land redistribution policies and publicized every American bomb drop in Afghanistan and the toll it took on civilians and reminded our very few readers that Third World nationalist groups like the Taliban were a natural part of the political alliance necessary to overthrow the imperialist countries, especially AmeriKKKa (actual spelling occasionally used); a flawed and bourgeois one, but a net positive force nonetheless. And what of the women? Well voicing such concerns was a sign you were bought off by the U.$. ruling class. This was the aspect of our line I despised the most, but initially feared to criticize because I couldn't discredit the theory behind this position academically. I can today though. The whole Leninist theory of the labor aristocracy, in fact, has trouble surviving the reality that American foreign policy changed after World War II to one of actively developing other countries rather than simply exploiting their resources, the first major case in point being the Marshall Plan. Indeed the reality of today is that much of the "anti-imperialist" movement that persists at this point is also an anti-development movement, seemingly just to maintain ideological opposition to the stance of the United States, and the Taliban perfectly exemplifies this with their neo-feudal politics. I can even remember in the LLCO it was a crucial position of our's that "economism", by which was meant prioritizing economic growth over political purity, was to be treated as an unacceptable form of revisionism. Perhaps that's because the adoption of "economism" is precisely what ended the period of classical Maoism in China owing to the fact that, well, people liked eating better than dogma.
People sometimes tell me that the American involvement in Afghanistan has been just like our occupation of Vietnam and Iraq. I disagree. The whole point of the our intervention in Vietnam from the '50s onward was to prevent the nation from reunifying by holding a nationwide democratic election, as intelligence indicated that rebel leader Ho Chi Minh stood to win some 80% of the vote. To prevent this fate, we supported the installation of a military dictatorship in the south of Vietnam and used it keep the country divided against the will of its people. Coca-Coca was more important. Our occupation of Iraq likewise fell out of favor with the local population within its first year, but was maintained anyway to try and keep gasoline prices down here in the U.S. (Which didn't happen anyway, as the military destruction of the country actually reduced the outflow of oil to the world, causing domestic prices to spike!) Afghans, by contrast, welcomed American intervention in and democratization of their country. For example...
...2006 WPO opinion poll found that 83% of Afghans had a favorable view of the U.S. military forces in their country, that 82% believed the overthrow of the Taliban had been a good thing, that Afghans gave America one of their most favorable ratings in the world, and that the majority of Afghans viewed neighboring Pakistan negatively for harboring Taliban fighters.
...A May 2009 poll of Afghans conducted by the BBC indicated that this support for the American military presence had fallen to 63% because most were against American plans to surge a ton more troops into the country, but we just knew better and we all know how that worked out. What would Afghans know about Afghanistan? Why listen? The same survey still found that the fundamental position of the population hadn't changed though concerning forms of government, as 82% of Afghans preferred their new, democratic government while only 4% favored Taliban rule.
...But Afghan support for the presence of U.S. forces rose back up to 77% in a 2015 survey by Langer Research Associates conducted immediately after the end of the aforementioned troop surge. Finally listening to what the people wanted improved support, shocker. More Afghans blamed either the Taliban or Al Qaeda for the country's violence (53%) than those who blamed the United States (12%).
Thus we see that our role in Afghanistan was consistently supported by the local population, especially when we use the "light footprint" model rather than attempting heavy-handed intervention that was known to produce the leveling of whole villages and so forth. My point here being that, for all of Afghanistan's flaws, and for all the conservative attitudes of its 75% rural population, they're NOT actually Taliban enthusiasts, folks. They like democracy even if they struggle to make it work effectively.
I likewise take exception to those who claim that the Afghan army we helped train and supply was just a bunch of wimps compared to us or something. I would point out folks that 60,000 of them died fighting the Taliban and Al Qaeda, and mind you often while going unfed, unpaid, and under-supplied because their superiors in the chain of command frequently just stole the resources that were designated for them! How many of you would do the same? How many of you would be willing to sacrifice your life for a government that regularly cheated you out of basic necessities like that because that's how corrupt it was? THAT is what I call patriotism! And it sort of reminds me of my dad and his sense of unconditional duty that I mentioned earlier.
Everyone has limits though. When our last president decided to accede to a major Taliban demand by excluding the Afghan government that army was fighting for from peace negotiations, morale collapsed. With this brilliant gesture, we de-legitimized the very government they'd made all those sacrifices to defend. And of course the Taliban didn't honor their agreement. Of course they just went on the offensive as soon as the opportunity consequently arrived. And yet we just kept pulling out. If we weren't willing to stop the collapse of everything they'd been fighting for, why should they? It just follows the new model we seem to have embrace in recent years. Our last president likewise sold out our Kurdish allies in Syria who only defeated ISIS for us to Turkey. Selling out our allies just seemed to be his thing. It's too bad that didn't end with his presidency because it should have.
In case any of you actually believes the lies the Taliban has been messaging about how they're now a bunch of tolerant, open-society liberals who respect women's autonomy, "forgive" everyone who aided the former government, and all that, let me just supply you some recent headlines:
Taliban going door to door for girls as young as 12 to make them sex slaves
Afghans tell of executions, forced 'marriages' in Taliban-held areas
Afghan women forced from banking jobs as Taliban take control
Taliban fighters set a woman on fire for 'bad cooking'
No democracy, only Sharia law in Afghanistan, says Taliban
Afghans chase down our planes and cling to the outside of them until they fall off and plunge to their deaths after takeoff. People are giving their children up to foreigners because it's the only chance they have of a future. And yet my president is all put out and exasperated to have to answer questions from the press on the subject like it's just not fair and he's the victim here. Wished I could've punched his face. Fortunately though, there is resistance emerging. A second day of women-led protests against the Taliban today (Afghan Independence Day) drew thousands after three demonstrators were killed yesterday. At least somebody cares. They have no chance, but their lives are over anyway, so what is there to lose?
Last edited by Jaicee - on 22 August 2021