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Forums - Politics - Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

If you think that was bad, the generals will be ten times worse. Expect Trump crowds, Trump moderators and questions like "explain to me why taxation isn't theft".

All things considered, though, I don't think any candidate will miss that debate. My opinion about it:

Winners: Warren, Biden

Middle-ground: Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar

Losers: Steyer, Bloomberg

Last edited by haxxiy - on 26 February 2020

 

 

 

 

 

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tsogud said:

Bloomberg is fucking disgusting. He is the embodiment of the corruption, greed and everything that's wrong in our socioeconomical system. First he is trying to buy this election, then he buys "volunteers" to canvass for him and then he buys a huge ass crowd in the debate to cheer for him and boo Sanders and Warren. I can't be the only fucking one who's completely livid over this!!?? And he's just fucking getting away with it! Biden and Klobuchar are miles ahead of this man, I'd rather have them as the centrist nominee.

DarthMetalliCube said:

I honestly had no clue there was a debate tonight. My two prefered candidates are out of the race/not there, so not really interested. Sounds like I didn't miss much lol.

Biden's going senile..

Bernie got an unusually high number of boos while Bloomberg an unusual number of applause.. Paid for some shills perhaps? Lord knows he pours millions upon millions trying to buy this election so wouldn't surprise me - can't watch TV for 10 minutes without seeing a damn Bloomberg ad.

Or at the very least, likely some wealthier folk in the crowd that would empathize with him far more than the Bern.

Mnementh said:
Seems we were not the only ones that noticed this very enthusiastic crowd for Bloomberg:
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/02/michael-bloomberg-had-very-enthusiastic-audience-support-at-the-debate-for-some-reason.html
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/south-carolina-debate-crowd-bloomberg-team-denies-buying-the-room-956447/



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NightlyPoe said:
HylianSwordsman said:

Keep on projecting. Again, it's not identity, it's just a demographic description. And again, what are you doing in this thread if you think that the "expressed plan of the Democrat party" is that evil and crazy?

I'm in the thread because I have interest in politics.

And if you think your party's expressed plan is that evil and crazy, maybe you should take a step back and rethink your support for them?

As for my "projecting", I refused to support the Republican nominee when I saw Trump employing the same exact tactics the Obama-era Democrat party attempted in reverse.  I also advocated against the Bush-era lighter attempts at such politics from Karl Rove.  I'm clean on that count.  So we're back to you.  Why do you support politics that just divide Americans up and then try to make them vote as members of a tribe instead of as individuals?

If you're interested in politics, go to the politics thread, stay out of this one. I don't support divisive politics, nor do I think my party's plan is evil and crazy, that's just your straw man. Stop putting words in my mouth. I just described some demographic trends. You're the one making this about identity, because you're projecting.



NightlyPoe said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Yeah, during the Us vs They times, the early Boomers (later boomers were still too young at the time) and late silents were for those changes. But the thing is, almost all the activists during that time were silents or even greatest, not boomers. Boomers mostly get the credit for being there, but it was silents who started it and got things done. Once that ended in the early 70's, boomers became increasingly self-centric. Us vs they became me vs you.

The reason for that was that the boomers were from the beginning very individualistic. Many opposed Vietnam and were in favor or the Civil rights movement for their own personal reasons, not on the grounds that it would be right or wrong, mostly to stick it to their parents and the nuclear family concept they opposed. But come the 70's and the first Xers getting close to puberty, and the boomers have evolved into exactly the things they opposed before. They became "the Man".

I should probably start by noting that I don't respond to Youtube videos and usually won't watch them.

Again, though, you're proving me correct.  Whether it's to stick it to their parents in the 60s and 70s or the high of joining an outrage mob on Twitter today, people's voting patterns can and will change.

You declared yourself correct without even properly responding to his argument. You've been saying you don't watch Youtube videos for literal months, since the beginning of the "dedicated politics threads" era, really. It's lazy, a cop-out, and intellectually dishonest to act like you can adequately respond to people without watching their response. Just because you're too lazy to watch a video doesn't mean you can dismiss people's arguments.

Here, here's some not videos for you, or are you too lazy to read too? Clicking links in general too much to ask? You want to come into the thread and call democrats bigots, but don't want to hear what we have to say. People getting conservative when they get older is not supported by studies on the matter.

https://www.livescience.com/2360-busting-myth-people-turn-liberal-age.html

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/05/poor-people-often-dont-survive-to-become-seniors-who-vote.html



https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-debate-south-carolina-poll/

A poll on the debate. From the looks of it:

1. Sanders and Buttigieg got the best ratings, but relative to his popularity Sanders could have done better.

2. Steyer and Bloomberg got the worst ratings, so that crowd was definitely not representative.

3. In terms of who actually gained or lost support (measured in "share considering voting for each candidate") Biden, Warren,and Klobuchar lost support, everyone else gained or stayed the same. But the changes weren't huge, Biden lost half a point, Warren and Klobuchar each lost 2 points. Sanders gained the most, but that was only 1.5%.

4. Everyone except Warren improved their favorability. Warren suffered the biggest gain in unfavorability and only loss in favorability, for a net loss. Klobuchar also gained some unfavorability, but made up for it with favorability. Bloomberg marginally improved but is still the only net negative favorability rating. Sanders improved half a point. Biden improved 4 and a half points, so probably had the best night in terms of favorability even if it didn't improve people considering voting for him.

So what I make from this is that the debate actually hurt Warren a little bit, improved Biden's image but not his position, Sanders held his ground, Bloomberg is hitting a ceiling and isn't likely to win enough support to even get a plurality no matter how many millions he spends (he's just not likeable), and Klobuchar faded into the background for most people. The debate is a wash, won't change the SC outcome or the primary as a whole very much if at all, and was just an ugly waste of everyone's time.

Last edited by HylianSwordsman - on 26 February 2020

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SpokenTruth said:
HylianSwordsman said:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-debate-south-carolina-poll/

A poll on the debate. From the looks of it.

1. Sanders and Buttigieg got the best ratings, but relative to his popularity Sanders could have done better.

2. Steyer and Bloomberg got the worst ratings, so that crowd was definitely not representative.

3. In terms of who actually gained or lost support (measured in "share considering voting for each candidate") Biden, Warren,and Klobuchar lost support, everyone else gained or stayed the same. But the changes weren't huge, Biden lost half a point, Warren and Klobuchar each lost 2 points. Sanders gained the most, but that was only 1.5%.

4. Everyone except Warren improved their favorability. Warren suffered the biggest gain in unfavorability and only loss in favorability, for a net loss. Klobuchar also gained some unfavorability, but made up for it with favorability. Bloomberg marginally improved but is still the only net negative favorability rating. Sanders improved half a point. Biden improved 4 and a half points, so probably had the best night in terms of favorability even if it didn't improve people considering voting for him.

So what I make from this is that the debate actually hurt Warren a little bit, improved Biden's image but not his position, Sanders held his ground, Bloomberg is hitting a ceiling and isn't likely to win enough support to even get a plurality no matter how many millions he spends (he's just not likeable), and Klobuchar faded into the background for most people. The debate is a wash, won't change the SC outcome or the primary as a whole very much if at all, and was just an ugly waste of everyone's time.

Perfect summation.

I mean that was my opinion before reading this 538 article, but it's nice to have some data to support me.



SpokenTruth said:

Do any of the candidates these drop before Super Tuesday?  Do any drop immediately after ST?

Polling:

Gabbard and Steyer are ~2% nationally.  Steyer at least looks good for SC at 15% but he's back to low single digits in all other states with current polling.

Klobuchar is at 5% nationally and only slightly better in a few Super Tuesday states.

Buttigieg is at 10% nationally and just at or less in most of the big upcoming states.

Money:

As of Jan 31, 2020.

Gabbard is hurting.  Just $2 million on hand with $600k in debt.

Klobuchar has $2.8 million in cash but hasn't spent very much either.  She's only raised half of Biden and 1/3rd of Warren.

Buttigieg has $6.6 million in cash and has out raised Biden but he's also spent a ton of his money.

I fear Gabbard will have to drop out soon. She's in no position to win anything right now anyway

Other than her, I only see Steyer as a potential dropout right now if he's not gaining enough support in SC to get any delegates, as that's the state with his best polls by far.



SpokenTruth said:

Do any of the candidates these drop before Super Tuesday?  Do any drop immediately after ST?

Polling:

Gabbard and Steyer are ~2% nationally.  Steyer at least looks good for SC at 15% but he's back to low single digits in all other states with current polling.

Klobuchar is at 5% nationally and only slightly better in a few Super Tuesday states.

Buttigieg is at 10% nationally and just at or less in most of the big upcoming states.

Money:

As of Jan 31, 2020.

Gabbard is hurting.  Just $2 million on hand with $600k in debt.

Klobuchar has $2.8 million in cash but hasn't spent very much either.  She's only raised half of Biden and 1/3rd of Warren.

Buttigieg has $6.6 million in cash and has out raised Biden but he's also spent a ton of his money.

I actually don't know why Gabbard still sticks around. It made sense for her to wait for New Hampshire, as she had good polling there (comparatively). But it netted her nothing, she hasn't made the debates since then and she is out of the national discussion, as the conservatives now openly fear-mongering over Sanders. So I don't know when she will drop out, because she is already longer in than I expected.

For Steyer it hinges on South Carolina. If he can gain delegates, he has a path forward to the horse trading at the national convention. If not he probably will drop out. Even if he gains delegates in SC, it is among his best states. If he can't turn it into momentum for Super Tuesday, I see him dropping then.

Klobuchar and Warren have a difficult position. Interestingly Warren had good debates lately, but it doesn't seem to help her. But both will stick around to Super Tuesday. Klobuchar has the best polling in Minnesota, close in front of Sanders. Warren is close second behind Sanders in Massachusetts. That is what they are waiting for.

Buttigieg has decent national polling and can snatch some delegates here and there.

So I don't see anyone dropping out before Super Tuesday except maybe Steyer (if he underperforms in SC) and Gabbard (who should've dropped out before). They all will be waiting for Bloomberg and how big a splash he will be making by jumping into the pool.



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Hah, why am I only now stumbling over this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zjj7VJpqy1w



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Mike Bloombergs team had made up quotes from "Bernie Sanders" praising different dictators, follows it up with "This is satire" and deletes the quotes as inevitably it creates backlash?

Well, at least the hashtag they tried to start #BernieOnDespots now looks quite interesting:

And even conservative people thinking they had a gotcha about Sanders:



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