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Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

NightlyPoe said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Either that, or it's because Millenials and Gen Z are much more to the left of previous generations and everyone tries to get some of their votes. Boomers won't live forever, after all, and the majority of those vote Republican anyway and X-ers are a toss-up, so without the votes of younger voters the democratic party doesn't have a chance to win right now. And that goes double now that Millenials and Gen Z outnumber Boomers now: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/05/29/gen-z-millennials-and-gen-x-outvoted-older-generations-in-2018-midterms/

Y'know, Boomers were the ones that opposed the Vietnam War, spearheaded the Civil Rights movement, and made, by far, the most progress for women of any generation.  As a generation, they were radically left and altered society in ways Millennials cannot even fathom from the marginal and safe causes they champion.

You're acting like voters remain static when the Boomers are a hard data point in favor of political views changing over time.  Again guys, don't think that all you have to do is wait around.

Yeah, during the Us vs They times, the early Boomers (later boomers were still too young at the time) and late silents were for those changes. But the thing is, almost all the activists during that time were silents or even greatest, not boomers. Boomers mostly get the credit for being there, but it was silents who started it and got things done. Once that ended in the early 70's, boomers became increasingly self-centric. Us vs they became me vs you.

The reason for that was that the boomers were from the beginning very individualistic. Many opposed Vietnam and were in favor or the Civil rights movement for their own personal reasons, not on the grounds that it would be right or wrong, mostly to stick it to their parents and the nuclear family concept they opposed. But come the 70's and the first Xers getting close to puberty, and the boomers have evolved into exactly the things they opposed before. They became "the Man".

Also, have a look at this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwLHaCU-GaM



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Hiku said:

First of all, his was a board wipe by Bernie.

Secondly, if this stands, Pete doesn't get any nationwide delegates since he didn't reach 15%. Only Bernie and Biden.

Well, according to the Wikipedia page, right now Bernie got 18, Biden got 8 and Pete got 2 delegates in Nevada, meaning 8 delegates are still uncommitted. 



Hiku said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Well, according to the Wikipedia page, right now Bernie got 18, Biden got 8 and Pete got 2 delegates in Nevada, meaning 8 delegates are still uncommitted. 

I wonder if that was calculated at a time when Pete was above 15%? Or presuming that he ends up above 15%.
Because he shouldn't get any delegates if he finishes below that number.

The 15% is per precinct in the caucuses and per district in the primaries, so candidates can even get delegates, if they are below 15% statewide, as long as they are above that threshold on district-level.

EDIT: Here is a more in detail explanation: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/15-percent-is-not-a-magic-number-for-primary-delegates/

Last edited by Mnementh - on 24 February 2020

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The final tally from Nevada is in: 24 delegates for Bernie, 9 for Biden and 3 for Pete.

And just like that, Bernie has a great lead upon his rivals which will only grow bigger in the future.

Edit: The total number of votes is almost 105k, so it's also up in Nevada compared to 2016.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 24 February 2020

Final delegate count for Nevada:
Bernie: 24
Biden: 9
Pete: 3

That's really good for Bernie, really dominating.



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NightlyPoe said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Yeah, during the Us vs They times, the early Boomers (later boomers were still too young at the time) and late silents were for those changes. But the thing is, almost all the activists during that time were silents or even greatest, not boomers. Boomers mostly get the credit for being there, but it was silents who started it and got things done. Once that ended in the early 70's, boomers became increasingly self-centric. Us vs they became me vs you.

The reason for that was that the boomers were from the beginning very individualistic. Many opposed Vietnam and were in favor or the Civil rights movement for their own personal reasons, not on the grounds that it would be right or wrong, mostly to stick it to their parents and the nuclear family concept they opposed. But come the 70's and the first Xers getting close to puberty, and the boomers have evolved into exactly the things they opposed before. They became "the Man".

I should probably start by noting that I don't respond to Youtube videos and usually won't watch them.

Again, though, you're proving me correct.  Whether it's to stick it to their parents in the 60s and 70s or the high of joining an outrage mob on Twitter today, people's voting patterns can and will change.

Boomers pretty much changed the moment they became adults.

I always wonder why Boomers get cited so often for the civil rights movement and women's rights. The civil rights movement started in the mid 50's and ended with the civil rights act of 68. At that final point even the oldest boomers were only 22. Same goes for the women's rights movement, which mostly consisted of silents.



Very interesting constellation now. We have Bernie against 4 establishment candidates Biden, Bloomberg, Butti & Warren. If all of them run to the end they will split the mainstream vote and Bernie will will get a plurality but no absolute majority (Sanders is polling at less than 30%).

The establishment could either unite behind one candidate now and win like SHE won in 2016 against Bernie. Or they declare that a 30% plurality fringe candidate just doesn't cut it and a 70% majority mainstream candidate has to be nominated at the end.



numberwang said:

Very interesting constellation now. We have Bernie against 4 establishment candidates Biden, Bloomberg, Butti & Warren. If all of them run to the end they will split the mainstream vote and Bernie will will get a plurality but no absolute majority (Sanders is polling at less than 30%).

The establishment could either unite behind one candidate now and win like SHE won in 2016 against Bernie. Or they declare that a 30% plurality fringe candidate just doesn't cut it and a 70% majority mainstream candidate has to be nominated at the end.

That's not exactly how it works.

If some candidates would drop out, then all the remaining candidates will get at least some of their votes. In the case of Warren or Biden, Sanders would actually even get the most votes from them dropping out. Which would make it pretty certain for Bernie to win.

Right now on 538 Bernie has a 47% chance to win, Biden 8%, Bloomberg 3% and everybody else below 1%. But the second highest number is actually no one with 41%, aka a brokered convention. So their best chance is to sit it out until the end and hope that Bernie doesn't pass the necessary threshold so they can choose whom they want to send against Trump. Anybody dropping out would benefit Bernie more than help the chances of any establishment democrat, as it pushes him higher, too.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
numberwang said:

Very interesting constellation now. We have Bernie against 4 establishment candidates Biden, Bloomberg, Butti & Warren. If all of them run to the end they will split the mainstream vote and Bernie will will get a plurality but no absolute majority (Sanders is polling at less than 30%).

The establishment could either unite behind one candidate now and win like SHE won in 2016 against Bernie. Or they declare that a 30% plurality fringe candidate just doesn't cut it and a 70% majority mainstream candidate has to be nominated at the end.

That's not exactly how it works.

If some candidates would drop out, then all the remaining candidates will get at least some of their votes. In the case of Warren or Biden, Sanders would actually even get the most votes from them dropping out. Which would make it pretty certain for Bernie to win.

Right now on 538 Bernie has a 47% chance to win, Biden 8%, Bloomberg 3% and everybody else below 1%. But the second highest number is actually no one with 41%, aka a brokered convention. So their best chance is to sit it out until the end and hope that Bernie doesn't pass the necessary threshold so they can choose whom they want to send against Trump. Anybody dropping out would benefit Bernie more than help the chances of any establishment democrat, as it pushes him higher, too.

Exactly. This is because the idea of fixed voting blocks or lanes is only superficial. People are after all individuals. So an individual might for some reason like Bloomberg and Sanders (maybe because this person hates Trump and thinks these two have the best chance at beating Trump). Such persons exist. It is only more likely that a person exist that likes Warren and Sanders. So Bloomberg dropping out probably would give Sanders less new voters than Warren, but Sanders still would get them. Also we have to consider the people, that stop caring the moment their candidate drops out. They don't vote anymore, which in result is mostly helping the ones in the lead. And that is currently Sanders.



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