Mnementh on 25 September 2019
uran10 said:
tsogud said:
Biden has been winning 45 consistently in the general election polls, it will be harder for him than Sanders but he still has an incredible chance of winning more than what Clinton had. Biden has more favorability than Clinton. The only one in the top three that's JUST recently started to win 45 consistently in the polls is Warren, but I believe that was due to her being relatively unknown to the general public. Now that she's had some time to shine she wins 45. I do agree that Sanders has the best chance of the three to beat him and that 45 will go after the nominee with ferocity (that's why vetting is so important) but the odds are still in the Democrats favor.
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I disagree big time. Those same polls said Clinton had over 90% chance of winning. Biden cognitively and policy wise would get destroyed. Trump would go 100% fake populist, rip him for his record and destroy him in the general. Biden's weaker than Clinton, he'd get destroyed in the debates cause his record sucks and then trump would run away with it. People need to stop underestimating trump. His base is energized to hell and back right now.
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Polls didn't assign a chance to the Clinton-win. Pundits did. And they failed. 538 had a model and they got flak as they showed that one in three cases Trump winning. But what Pundits think is not great, models and polls are a better indicator. And polls were close between Trump and Clinton.
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