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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Will the XBOX One outsell the SNES?

 

Will XBOX One outsell the SNES?

Yes 55 51.89%
 
No 51 48.11%
 
Total:106
Mr Puggsly on 01 May 2019
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Mr Puggsly said:

Depends on the month, summer is historically slow. Earlier in the year the X1 was selling 60-100K a week. I have a gut feeling we could see a sales increase during November and December, but that's speculation of course.

So again, it just really depends on what MS does. With good deals and continued support, it will fly past SNES. If MS treats X1 like Wii U, then it won't happen. Its kinda like we're just making guesses on whether or not MS will support the X1.

I used to think the X1 GPU was to weak for continued support in the 9th gen. However, we see Switch owners getting excited about sub-HD games. That tells me X1 can continue support regardless how low the resolutions get.

Keep in mind that the Switch also is portable, so you can't compare that directly without that context. Switch owners are more amazed that you can play those games on the go now, or on a broader context, on a Nintendo platform, period, things that don't apply with the XBO.

And for the deals, Microsoft is doing those almost all the frigging time. They don't show up very much in the weekly sales, but without them, weekly sales would already be dangerously close to Wii U weekly sales. Just check the NPD prediction tool for the last couple months, without any deals, the XBO can't even get close to 200 points daily, while PS4 and especially the Switch stay far above that line at any time. I know that's just the US, but in XBO case, that's already almost 2/3 of the sales, so it's performance there matters a lot.

Forget the my Switch comments, it was mostly in jest. If X1 support continues during the 9th gen I'm sure at least 720p is gonna be a goal. Which I still find acceptable.

MS isn't doing Black Friday type of deals all the time. Don't just look online by the way, I'm still surprised to see X1 around $300 at retail.

Either way, X1 compared to Wii U sales is dumb. X1's performance during January to March kills your argument. While summer months are historically slow. The X1 should sell a few million this holiday assuming its $199 again, maybe they can get some really impressive sales if the X1 Digital drops to $149.

Anyhoo, you're making assumptions based on this very moment. My predictions are based on history and trends. I'm also making the assumption MS won't abandon the X1 like Nintendo did for Wii U.



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OlfinBedwere on 01 May 2019
ironmanDX said:
It will be available for purchase until 2022. Can you see it not selling 7 million in that time? 2.3 million for the remainder of the year... Easy.

2.3 for next year? Easy. It's the year after it may fall below that... Which will probably not matter by that point.

Available for purchase, yes, but consoles have a habit of seeing their sales drop off a cliff once their successor has been formally announced. For a lot of 2012 and early 2013 there were many people on here who thought that the PS3 might be able to overtake the Wii right at the death, given how well it was selling, only for the PS3's sales numbers to take a tumble as soon as the PS4 was announced. Likewise, the Xbox One posted some really terrible sales numbers in mid-late 2017, probably in part due to the Switch's arrival, but also doubtless due to people holding off for the One X.

So yeah, the Xbox One might be able to overtake the SNES, but it really depends when Microsoft announce their next system (and possibly any further price drops they may pull).



Mr Puggsly on 01 May 2019
OlfinBedwere said:
ironmanDX said:
It will be available for purchase until 2022. Can you see it not selling 7 million in that time? 2.3 million for the remainder of the year... Easy.

2.3 for next year? Easy. It's the year after it may fall below that... Which will probably not matter by that point.

Available for purchase, yes, but consoles have a habit of seeing their sales drop off a cliff once their successor has been formally announced. For a lot of 2012 and early 2013 there were many people on here who thought that the PS3 might be able to overtake the Wii right at the death, given how well it was selling, only for the PS3's sales numbers to take a tumble as soon as the PS4 was announced. Likewise, the Xbox One posted some really terrible sales numbers in mid-late 2017, probably in part due to the Switch's arrival, but also doubtless due to people holding off for the One X.

So yeah, the Xbox One might be able to overtake the SNES, but it really depends when Microsoft announce their next system (and possibly any further price drops they may pull).

We know when they will announce their new system, E3. That's why Sony jumped ahead to talk about PS5.

Ultimately, whether or not X1 passes SNES is dependent on 2019 and 2020. Sales will nose dive fast after that. Especially if the Xbox Lockhart is surprisingly cheap.



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ironmanDX on 01 May 2019
OlfinBedwere said:
ironmanDX said:
It will be available for purchase until 2022. Can you see it not selling 7 million in that time? 2.3 million for the remainder of the year... Easy.

2.3 for next year? Easy. It's the year after it may fall below that... Which will probably not matter by that point.

Available for purchase, yes, but consoles have a habit of seeing their sales drop off a cliff once their successor has been formally announced. For a lot of 2012 and early 2013 there were many people on here who thought that the PS3 might be able to overtake the Wii right at the death, given how well it was selling, only for the PS3's sales numbers to take a tumble as soon as the PS4 was announced. Likewise, the Xbox One posted some really terrible sales numbers in mid-late 2017, probably in part due to the Switch's arrival, but also doubtless due to people holding off for the One X.

So yeah, the Xbox One might be able to overtake the SNES, but it really depends when Microsoft announce their next system (and possibly any further price drops they may pull).

2.3 million is sales off a cliff. I'm even brining the cliff to us by including this year into equation because of the belief that MS will pull the trigger and announce this e3.



Cerebralbore101 on 01 May 2019
chakkra said:
Cerebralbore101 said:
I think it will, but we have to look at then vs now. SNES beat it's main competitor in sales. Meanwhile, XB1 is looking to end the generation in 3rd place. And that's with Switch launching a good three years after XB1.

Xbox is pretty much a regional brand at this point. Sony outsells them five to one in Europe. Japan doesn't buy Xboxes at all.

When gen 9 arrives and people start all of a sudden counting Switch as a gen 9 console, it will fall in 2nd place again.

What do you mean? Do you mean Xbox will fall in 2nd place again? I don't see Xbox2 ever coming anywhere near Switch's sales, let alone catching up with it after 3 years. By the time XB2 launches Switch will likely be at 70 Million. If you mean that Switch will fall into second place, then that's a given. It will never overtake PS4, so it will be 2nd from the time it outsells XB1 to the launch of the PS5. After that I imagine it will take two to three years for PS5 to catch up with Switch. 



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chakkra on 01 May 2019
Cerebralbore101 said:
chakkra said:

When gen 9 arrives and people start all of a sudden counting Switch as a gen 9 console, it will fall in 2nd place again.

What do you mean? Do you mean Xbox will fall in 2nd place again? I don't see Xbox2 ever coming anywhere near Switch's sales, let alone catching up with it after 3 years. By the time XB2 launches Switch will likely be at 70 Million. If you mean that Switch will fall into second place, then that's a given. It will never overtake PS4, so it will be 2nd from the time it outsells XB1 to the launch of the PS5. After that I imagine it will take two to three years for PS5 to catch up with Switch. 

What I mean is that people today call the Switch "gen-8 console" which would automatically make it 2nd place of generation 8. But I'm willing to bet that by 2021 people will start calling it "gen-9 console" which would automatically make the X1 fall into 2nd place of generation 8.



Bofferbrauer2 on 01 May 2019
Cerebralbore101 said:
chakkra said:

When gen 9 arrives and people start all of a sudden counting Switch as a gen 9 console, it will fall in 2nd place again.

What do you mean? Do you mean Xbox will fall in 2nd place again? I don't see Xbox2 ever coming anywhere near Switch's sales, let alone catching up with it after 3 years. By the time XB2 launches Switch will likely be at 70 Million. If you mean that Switch will fall into second place, then that's a given. It will never overtake PS4, so it will be 2nd from the time it outsells XB1 to the launch of the PS5. After that I imagine it will take two to three years for PS5 to catch up with Switch. 

He meant that the Switch will be counted as 9th gen then by some, and the XBO is 8th gen, thus removing the Switch from the equation, and with it, the need to surpass it's sales to become second of the generation.



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Cerebralbore101 on 01 May 2019
chakkra said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

What do you mean? Do you mean Xbox will fall in 2nd place again? I don't see Xbox2 ever coming anywhere near Switch's sales, let alone catching up with it after 3 years. By the time XB2 launches Switch will likely be at 70 Million. If you mean that Switch will fall into second place, then that's a given. It will never overtake PS4, so it will be 2nd from the time it outsells XB1 to the launch of the PS5. After that I imagine it will take two to three years for PS5 to catch up with Switch. 

What I mean is that people today call the Switch "gen-8 console" which would automatically make it 2nd place of generation 8. But I'm willing to bet that by 2021 people will start calling it "gen-9 console" which would automatically make the X1 fall into 2nd place of generation 8.

Ah, I see. Either way we slice it we can say that the Switch outsold the XB1 in three short years. I think gapchartz, done by this site, will show that neither XB1, nor XB2 will be able to keep up with aligned Switch sales. 



chakkra on 29 May 2019
Cerebralbore101 said:
chakkra said:

What I mean is that people today call the Switch "gen-8 console" which would automatically make it 2nd place of generation 8. But I'm willing to bet that by 2021 people will start calling it "gen-9 console" which would automatically make the X1 fall into 2nd place of generation 8.

Ah, I see. Either way we slice it we can say that the Switch outsold the XB1 in three short years. I think gapchartz, done by this site, will show that neither XB1, nor XB2 will be able to keep up with aligned Switch sales. 

Okay...

But I wasn't really arguing X1 vs Switch sales. I was just stating that, at the end of the day, people will see the X1 as the 2nd place of the 8th generation.

As for the X2, I really don't like making predictions without any data to rely on.



Ayla on 31 May 2019

60 Million lifetime.