Forums - Gaming Discussion - Will the XBOX One outsell the SNES?

Will XBOX One outsell the SNES?

Yes 55 51.89%
 
No 51 48.11%
 
Total:106
chakkra said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

What do you mean? Do you mean Xbox will fall in 2nd place again? I don't see Xbox2 ever coming anywhere near Switch's sales, let alone catching up with it after 3 years. By the time XB2 launches Switch will likely be at 70 Million. If you mean that Switch will fall into second place, then that's a given. It will never overtake PS4, so it will be 2nd from the time it outsells XB1 to the launch of the PS5. After that I imagine it will take two to three years for PS5 to catch up with Switch. 

What I mean is that people today call the Switch "gen-8 console" which would automatically make it 2nd place of generation 8. But I'm willing to bet that by 2021 people will start calling it "gen-9 console" which would automatically make the X1 fall into 2nd place of generation 8.

Ah, I see. Either way we slice it we can say that the Switch outsold the XB1 in three short years. I think gapchartz, done by this site, will show that neither XB1, nor XB2 will be able to keep up with aligned Switch sales. 



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Cerebralbore101 said:
chakkra said:

What I mean is that people today call the Switch "gen-8 console" which would automatically make it 2nd place of generation 8. But I'm willing to bet that by 2021 people will start calling it "gen-9 console" which would automatically make the X1 fall into 2nd place of generation 8.

Ah, I see. Either way we slice it we can say that the Switch outsold the XB1 in three short years. I think gapchartz, done by this site, will show that neither XB1, nor XB2 will be able to keep up with aligned Switch sales. 

Okay...

But I wasn't really arguing X1 vs Switch sales. I was just stating that, at the end of the day, people will see the X1 as the 2nd place of the 8th generation.

As for the X2, I really don't like making predictions without any data to rely on.



60 Million lifetime.



Only needs 7.5m more, so... yeah, if it somehow doesn't make it, color me impressed.



Not 100% sure....It probably will, but I voted no. It felt right.



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tripenfall said:

Xbox One is currently tracking at about 42-43 million ltd and only sold 54k units last week. I still don't think that it passing the SNES is a given, especially if Microsoft unveil new hardware at E3 as they are rumored to do.... 

If Halo Infinite comes out strong, you can bet there will be a sales boost. Not including Gears 5, Battletoads, Ori 2 and whatever else they have on the horizon due this year. 



I think it will, but probably not by much. Assuming the XBO is down 30% YoY, that should put it at no more than 5M for this year, which would put it at ~46M by the end of the year. Assuming a 50% decline next year (because of the launch of the Xbox 4), then that will put it at ~49M, right on par the SNES. Assuming another 50% drop-off in 2021 and again in 2022 with a 2023 discontinuation, then it will likely end up at around 51-52M lifetime.

Looking at it regionally, according to NPD the SNES sold 20M units while the XBO is sitting at 25.1M as of April of this year. VGC has European sales of the SNES at 8.15M while the XBO is currently at 11.52M. Meanwhile, in Japan the SNES sold over 17M units while the XBO has barely broken the 100k mark. So, the west will be entirely responsible for the XBO beating the SNES globally, assuming it does so at all.



Shadow1980 said:
I think it will, but probably not by much. Assuming the XBO is down 30% YoY, that should put it at no more than 5M for this year, which would put it at ~46M by the end of the year. Assuming a 50% decline next year (because of the launch of the Xbox 4), then that will put it at ~49M, right on par the SNES. Assuming another 50% drop-off in 2021 and again in 2022 with a 2023 discontinuation, then it will likely end up at around 51-52M lifetime.

Looking at it regionally, according to NPD the SNES sold 20M units while the XBO is sitting at 25.1M as of April of this year. VGC has European sales of the SNES at 8.15M while the XBO is currently at 11.52M. Meanwhile, in Japan the SNES sold over 17M units while the XBO has barely broken the 100k mark. So, the west will be entirely responsible for the XBO beating the SNES globally, assuming it does so at all.

I think that's a sound appraisal of the situation. 

I'm curious to see what Microsoft do at E3 in a week's time. If they announce a "nextbox" that has a budget SKU that is coming in 2019 then it's fair to say Xbox One sales will stall. This will be especially true if their upcoming games are also on PC day and date. It sounds stupid to announce something that early to cannibalize your own sales but don't forget this is the company who announced the Xbox One X about 18 months before release.

One thing is for sure, Microsoft can't wait for the next gen to start. Their most successful console The Xbox 360 was released a full year before the competition, does Microsoft think going early again will achieve the same results? 



Yes, but only by a little.



This also depends a lot on whether MS is sticking to that stuff they said about the end of generations. since they stopped talking about that a couple of years ago, I'm guessing they've changed their mind. But, if they say that the next gen consoles are basically just Xbox One X 2, and the games for the next several years will be playable on a regular Xbox One, or even Xbox one x, I would say that the Xbox One will handily pass the SNES. But, if they announce next week that they're making a clean start on a new generation before the end of 2020, it's going to be a lot harder to sell another 8mm X1s.