Forums - Gaming Discussion - Will the XBOX One outsell the SNES?

Will XBOX One outsell the SNES?

Yes 55 51.89%
 
No 51 48.11%
 
Total:106
tripenfall said:

I think that's a sound appraisal of the situation. 

I'm curious to see what Microsoft do at E3 in a week's time. If they announce a "nextbox" that has a budget SKU that is coming in 2019 then it's fair to say Xbox One sales will stall. This will be especially true if their upcoming games are also on PC day and date. It sounds stupid to announce something that early to cannibalize your own sales but don't forget this is the company who announced the Xbox One X about 18 months before release.

One thing is for sure, Microsoft can't wait for the next gen to start. Their most successful console The Xbox 360 was released a full year before the competition, does Microsoft think going early again will achieve the same results? 

I don't think we'll see any hardware releases this year from MS. If they have two SKUs differentiated by power level, I doubt they'll stagger the launches. I also don't think they're intent on getting a head start, because having one has never guaranteed success over the competition. In Gen 4, the Genesis had a head start over the SNES, yet it still came in third in Japan and ultimately fell just short of the SNES in the U.S. In Gen 5, the Saturn debuted a few months before the PS1 in the U.S., but its sales tanked thanks to a bungled launch; the PS1 itself debuted a year before the N64 in the U.S. to lackluster sales, trailing behind the N64 up to August 1997, and didn't become the dominant system until after FFVII was released in September that year. In Gen 6, the Dreamcast had a decent launch but declined quickly despite having a considerable head start against the PS2. The PS2 itself had a head start against the Xbox and GameCube, but considering it was riding the momentum of the PS1 I doubt its success had anything to do with its head start. The 360 had a head start over the PS3, but it did not have an outstanding first year and its sales were largely stagnant in the U.S. until the 360 S was released in 2010 and in Europe until it received a deep reduction in price. Finally, the Wii U was first to market for Gen 8, but that clearly didn't do anything for it.

Seeing as there is no conclusive evidence that having a head start helps with market share, I doubt MS will try to get the jump on Sony for Gen 9. I think Nov. 2020 is almost guaranteed for both the Xbox 4 and PS5.

Even an announcement is unlikely to have an effect. Historical sales data shows that a system's post-peak sales decline does not start to accelerate until after its replacement is released, so I still expect ~5M for this year and then ~3M for next year.



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I'm skeptical right now. It certainly seems possible; however, I am also anticipating the announcement/reveal of the NextBox this year, and if that happens, I expect it would slow down Xbone sales significantly, which would certainly hinder its ability to make that milestone.

Additionally, there's also the question of whether the SNES Classic should count towards SNES numbers. On one hand, it's very different hardware, but on the other hand, it is very specifically SNES games and nothing outside of SNES that is driving those sales. If it WERE counted, that would push SNES numbers up to around 55m and I would say it's definitively certain Xbone won't outsell that.



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Shadow1980 said:
I think it will, but probably not by much. Assuming the XBO is down 30% YoY, that should put it at no more than 5M for this year, which would put it at ~46M by the end of the year. Assuming a 50% decline next year (because of the launch of the Xbox 4), then that will put it at ~49M, right on par the SNES. Assuming another 50% drop-off in 2021 and again in 2022 with a 2023 discontinuation, then it will likely end up at around 51-52M lifetime.

Looking at it regionally, according to NPD the SNES sold 20M units while the XBO is sitting at 25.1M as of April of this year. VGC has European sales of the SNES at 8.15M while the XBO is currently at 11.52M. Meanwhile, in Japan the SNES sold over 17M units while the XBO has barely broken the 100k mark. So, the west will be entirely responsible for the XBO beating the SNES globally, assuming it does so at all.

That all depends from not dropping harder, but I get behind the reasoning.

I do expect XBO to drop faster, especially if it's successor will already be announced at this E3, which should ruin this year's sales already.



thetonestarr said:
Additionally, there's also the question of whether the SNES Classic should count towards SNES numbers. On one hand, it's very different hardware, but on the other hand, it is very specifically SNES games and nothing outside of SNES that is driving those sales. If it WERE counted, that would push SNES numbers up to around 55m and I would say it's definitively certain Xbone won't outsell that.

It's not a question. It's dumb to retroactively add numbers to discontinued systems when a classic/flashback is released years later. Otherwise we could say the Sega Genesis outsold the N64 due to all those Sega Megadrive/Genesis tv consoles, that's just changing history.



Barkley said:
thetonestarr said:
Additionally, there's also the question of whether the SNES Classic should count towards SNES numbers. On one hand, it's very different hardware, but on the other hand, it is very specifically SNES games and nothing outside of SNES that is driving those sales. If it WERE counted, that would push SNES numbers up to around 55m and I would say it's definitively certain Xbone won't outsell that.

It's not a question. It's dumb to retroactively add numbers to discontinued systems when a classic/flashback is released years later. Otherwise we could say the Sega Genesis outsold the N64 due to all those Sega Megadrive/Genesis tv consoles, that's just changing history.

It comes down to whether those were official console releases or not. Why wouldn't you count an official console released by Nintendo with the SNES moniker, that is designed strictly to play only existing SNES games? Companies bring discontinued products back all the time, and companies make revisions to products for re-releases all the time. Why should this be considered any differently?



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thetonestarr said:
Barkley said:

It's not a question. It's dumb to retroactively add numbers to discontinued systems when a classic/flashback is released years later. Otherwise we could say the Sega Genesis outsold the N64 due to all those Sega Megadrive/Genesis tv consoles, that's just changing history.

It comes down to whether those were official console releases or not. Why wouldn't you count an official console released by Nintendo with the SNES moniker, that is designed strictly to play only existing SNES games? Companies bring discontinued products back all the time, and companies make revisions to products for re-releases all the time. Why should this be considered any differently?

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/- Nintendo say no.



Barkley said:
thetonestarr said:
Additionally, there's also the question of whether the SNES Classic should count towards SNES numbers. On one hand, it's very different hardware, but on the other hand, it is very specifically SNES games and nothing outside of SNES that is driving those sales. If it WERE counted, that would push SNES numbers up to around 55m and I would say it's definitively certain Xbone won't outsell that.

It's not a question. It's dumb to retroactively add numbers to discontinued systems when a classic/flashback is released years later. Otherwise we could say the Sega Genesis outsold the N64 due to all those Sega Megadrive/Genesis tv consoles, that's just changing history.

That's harsh.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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Barkley said:
thetonestarr said:

It comes down to whether those were official console releases or not. Why wouldn't you count an official console released by Nintendo with the SNES moniker, that is designed strictly to play only existing SNES games? Companies bring discontinued products back all the time, and companies make revisions to products for re-releases all the time. Why should this be considered any differently?

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/- Nintendo say no.

You can't use that in your argument, because it doesn't acknowledge these re-releases whatsoever, and there's no question that their numbers are quite valid to some degree.



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thetonestarr said:
Barkley said:

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/- Nintendo say no.

You can't use that in your argument, because it doesn't acknowledge these re-releases whatsoever, and there's no question that their numbers are quite valid to some degree.

It clearly shows Nintendo do not count sales of Classic consoles towards the sales of the original consoles. The Snes has still sold 49.1m, and the Nes 61.91m



Barkley said:
thetonestarr said:

You can't use that in your argument, because it doesn't acknowledge these re-releases whatsoever, and there's no question that their numbers are quite valid to some degree.

It clearly shows Nintendo do not count sales of Classic consoles towards the sales of the original consoles. The Snes has still sold 49.1m, and the Nes 61.91m

No, it clearly shows that Nintendo have not publicly considered counting them. Until there is something, from Nintendo, that acknowledges both SNES sales and SNES Classic sales in the same document, you cannot use their statements to either support or deny inclusion.



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