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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Q2 Report - Switch hardware total 22.86 millions - 50% of Online Users paid for the year

Miyamotoo on 30 October 2018
x-blades12 said:
Like many people have already said here. Q2 and Q3 are up year and year. Last year's quarterly for the holiday season was at 7.24 million, if we follow the trend, q1+q2 sold 4.89m. Our current cumulative is sitting at 5.07m. That would be up roughly ~3.7% (I could be doing this all wrong) but if we just base it solely on trend then 7.24*1.037~7.51m. This is not factoring into account both Pokemon and smash. Top that off with all the games released in the past year plus available bundle,s makes switch a far more appealing system than it was 1 year ago.
Even if we kept the estimates low, we could assume the switch would sell 8m this quarter. I'd predict anything between 8-10m is more than feasible.
So with that said. if we say its sitting at 8m that would have it sitting at 13m. 7 m short. I can't find the q4 2018 report from January to March, but iirc it was at ~4m? so at 4m we would see sales sitting at 17m. I'd prop that up to about 5m or 18m.
Prediction:
min: 18m
max: 20m

This year in January-March period Switch sold 2.9m, saying that this FY Q4 same period will probably be quite stronger (3.5m+), it will have effect of Pokemon Lets Go, Smash Ultimate, NSMBU DX..

 

Wyrdness said:
HintHRO said:

It says quite a bit about the quality of Switch games. Especially when you consider Switch has more games on the market already than the Wii U. Nobody cares if you have 1000 games available on your console when most of it are shovelware trash and overpriced ports. 

Says nothing about quality because Wii U's sales are across 5 years Switch is with in 2, come 5 years software sales on Switch will be way above Wii U.

Switch numbers are currently in 1.5 year.



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zorg1000 on 30 October 2018
HintHRO said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

That software attachment rate for the Wii U tho...

It says quite a bit about the quality of Switch games. Especially when you consider Switch has more games on the market already than the Wii U. Nobody cares if you have 1000 games available on your console when most of it are shovelware trash and overpriced ports. 

It says nothing about the library, it has a normal attach ratio for a console at this point in its life.

For example, when PS4 was 14 months it had an attach ratio of 4.42, when it was 30 months it was 6.77.

Switch is 20 months with 4.86 so that lines up pretty well what PS4 would have been at the same time.

Edit: also most of that "shovel ware trash" you speak of is download only which is not included in these numbers.

Last edited by zorg1000 - on 30 October 2018

When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Nuvendil on 30 October 2018
Kerotan said:
TruckOSaurus said:

From ZhugeEx's Twitter:

 

The Switch is in great company after 18 months.

Holy shit. Thanks for this. So ps4 ain't falling behind ps2 anytime soon. It's consistency is insane. Will it be the fastest console ever to hit 100m? I think it will. Gonna post this in the other threads if you don't mind? 

The PS4 vs Ps2 race is all about legs now.  We'll just have to see if it has the staying power.

Also, Switch's line is really, really similar to PS4's just slightly lower.  Wonder if that will continue.



TheBraveGallade on 30 October 2018
Nuvendil said:
Kerotan said:

Holy shit. Thanks for this. So ps4 ain't falling behind ps2 anytime soon. It's consistency is insane. Will it be the fastest console ever to hit 100m? I think it will. Gonna post this in the other threads if you don't mind? 

The PS4 vs Ps2 race is all about legs now.  We'll just have to see if it has the staying power.

Also, Switch's line is really, really similar to PS4's just slightly lower.  Wonder if that will continue.

I doubt that the PS4 will have the legs the ps2 had. That thing was insane.

Also I'm fairly certain this is going to be ps4's peak year while the ps2 is nowhere NEAR done selling.



PAOerfulone on 30 October 2018

The numbers I'm really curious about is the the amount of Switch owners who subscribed to Nintendo Switch Online, and what plans they purchased.



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PortisheadBiscuit on 30 October 2018
TheBraveGallade said:
Nuvendil said:

The PS4 vs Ps2 race is all about legs now.  We'll just have to see if it has the staying power.

Also, Switch's line is really, really similar to PS4's just slightly lower.  Wonder if that will continue.

I doubt that the PS4 will have the legs the ps2 had. That thing was insane.

Also I'm fairly certain this is going to be ps4's peak year while the ps2 is nowhere NEAR done selling.

The slow start of PS3 helped PS2's legs IMO, the PS4 won't have that luxury with PS5 



OTBWY on 30 October 2018
quickrick said:
SpokenTruth said:

Let's try this again.  Why are you lying?  They have downgraded their shipment forecasts before.  Several times.

What you posted doesn't change that.

i was speaking in context they would only change the forecast if it was 200% guaranteed  they wouldn't make the forcast

 

look here https://www.neogaf.com/threads/nintendo-q2-wii-u-300k-ltd-3-91m.706561/

 

wiiu shipped shipped basically nothing for Q2 and they stuck with the 10 million forcast.

The whole premise is nonsense. Nintendo lowered their forecasts before. Doesn't matter what context of a single instance you found. I remember them having to from 9 million to 2.8 million. They have been very open then about the 3DS too.

I'll wait for your resp.. never mind. The hammer fell again. See you in a few days.



curl-6 on 30 October 2018

I have a dream that some day we'll be able to have a Nintendo Quarterly Report thread without quickrick going on a rampant downplaying spree and getting banned. Seems to happen every single time. 

Last edited by curl-6 - on 30 October 2018

StarDoor on 30 October 2018
curl-6 said:

I have a dream that some day we'll be able to have a Nintendo Quarterly Report thread without quickrick going on a rampant downplaying spree and getting banned. Seems to happen every single time.

Also, I haven't seen this mentioned yet: Mario Odyssey is now the highest selling 3D Mario, (not including re-releases on later systems) after less than a year on the market. 

Unfortunately, that's not true. VGChartz may think so, but Nintendo's own shipment data show that 3D Land is still 50k ahead and Galaxy is 610k ahead.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/3ds.html
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/wii.html

Still, by the end of the next quarter, Odyssey is likely to be the best-selling 3D Mario by more than a million units.



curl-6 on 30 October 2018
StarDoor said:
curl-6 said:

I have a dream that some day we'll be able to have a Nintendo Quarterly Report thread without quickrick going on a rampant downplaying spree and getting banned. Seems to happen every single time.

Also, I haven't seen this mentioned yet: Mario Odyssey is now the highest selling 3D Mario, (not including re-releases on later systems) after less than a year on the market. 

Unfortunately, that's not true. VGChartz may think so, but Nintendo's own shipment data show that 3D Land is still 50k ahead and Galaxy is 610k ahead.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/3ds.html
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/wii.html

Still, by the end of the next quarter, Odyssey is likely to be the best-selling 3D Mario by more than a million units.

Ah, my bad for using VGC numbers. Still, those games are dead men walking, Odyssey's victory is imminent and inevitable.

The Switch truly is selling games like no Nintendo system before it.