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Forums - Sales - How Much Do You Expect the Nintendo Switch to Sell Lifetime?

 

How Much Do You Expect the Nintendo Switch to Sell Lifetime?

Less Than 35 Million 74 3.82%
 
35-50 Million 155 8.01%
 
51-65 Million 209 10.80%
 
66-80 Million 461 23.82%
 
81-95 Million 448 23.15%
 
96-110 Million 343 17.73%
 
111-125 Million 91 4.70%
 
126-140 Million 47 2.43%
 
141-155 Million 18 0.93%
 
More Than 155 Million 89 4.60%
 
Total:1,935

95mil



Switch!!!

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Lawlight said:
Miyamotoo said:

I also talking about global numbers, and Switch is getting momentum from June and July carried in August. Nintendo actually commented that Switch is getting momentum from E3.

Can you post links to your support your claim with facts and figures?

You have NPD and MediaCreate numbers for June, July and in Japan case even August sales numbers where you can clearly see that Switch got momentum from around E3. For instance for NPD sales, in June Switch sold around 320k that around 50% better than in same time last year and now had best July of generation (last 8 months), while in Japan has stable sales around 50k for around 2 months now without any big system seller games.

 

31. July:

"The Nintendo Switch business that we have been focusing on has also gained momentum since E3."

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2018/qa1806e.pdf 

"For Nintendo Switch, hardware sales in every region have been trending upwards since the video game expo, E3, was held in the US in June. In parallel with an increase in digital sales, software sales also have been moving in good shape towards the holiday season."

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2018/180731e.pdf




mZuzek said:
curl-6 said:

That's the thing, it's not new. 

The Switch went from being a hot system with a boatload of hot new games in 2017 to little more than a dumping ground for old rope this year.

Eh, maybe for you. Many people hadn't played Hollow Knight before, it's a new experience to them. Okami is another masterpiece some people are experiencing for the first time now. The same applies to many other games, it's never a bad thing to re-release a great game.

I understand you, though. Of course, it's sad to not have many new exciting new games to look forward to. But you have to understand Nintendo is quite a limited studio in comparison to some other AAA developers, and even the most prolific companies have a hard time releasing loads of high-budget games for several years in a row in this day and age. Nintendo only had so much in 2017 because they had been preparing for it for all of the two years before, and it was obvious they blew out most of their load - and even then, Xenoblade 2 was clearly rushed. 2018 was simply never going to come close to living up. You can either be frustrated about that, or continue to enjoy the console with all of the great experiences it offers.

That has to be among the dumbest arguments I've ever seen made on all of internet.



BoseDK said:

From March-July in 2017 it sold 4.8 million, this year it has sold 4 million in the same timeframe. So it's lagging by almost 20%.

That is a terrible comparison, you are completely ignoring the fact that March 2017 was a launch month which counters the lack of Jan/Feb sales.

2017 vs 2017 is the correct comparison.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Replicant said:

From your link:
PS4 2018 (hardware): 332,399
Switch 2018 (hardware): 358,738

PS4 2018 (software): 3,305,588
Switch 2018 (software): 1,880,647

Is that really the definition of ass whooping though? Especially considering that PS4 is nearing market saturation with 4.5 mill sold.

Switch is in front without any big releases, MK8D is the bestselling game in France this year, not even God of War could beat that year-old game While it's not yet whooping the PS4s ass, it shows that Sony can't beat the Switch even with many high-profile releases versus none of those on Switch.. Now imagine how it's doing with some actual high profile game releases like Super Mario Party, Pokémon or Smash.

Also, saturation? The PS3 sold almost one million more consoles, the Wii over 6.2M and the population has grown since then. It's still a ways off from being strongly hold back by saturation.

While the PS4 is selling more software, that's only due to the bigger install base. And still with almost 4x as many consoles sold, the PS4 still only managed to sell somewhat under 2x as much software as the Switch did so far this year.

Oh, no need for all that text as I was only mentioning that I wouldn't necessarily say that Switch is currently whooping PS4's ass as you wrote.

But never mind. Bold shows that we agree.



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If they have a decent price cut down the line and release a Switch Pro, probably around 80 or 90 million lifetime. I definitely feel it can outsell the 3DS in the end, and while I was way off with the Wii U sales prediction a few years back (40 million, YIKES), so far Nintendo is taking the right steps with the Switch right now and will maintain the momentum this time around.



curl-6 said:
mZuzek said:

Eh, maybe for you. Many people hadn't played Hollow Knight before, it's a new experience to them. Okami is another masterpiece some people are experiencing for the first time now. The same applies to many other games, it's never a bad thing to re-release a great game.

I understand you, though. Of course, it's sad to not have many new exciting new games to look forward to. But you have to understand Nintendo is quite a limited studio in comparison to some other AAA developers, and even the most prolific companies have a hard time releasing loads of high-budget games for several years in a row in this day and age. Nintendo only had so much in 2017 because they had been preparing for it for all of the two years before, and it was obvious they blew out most of their load - and even then, Xenoblade 2 was clearly rushed. 2018 was simply never going to come close to living up. You can either be frustrated about that, or continue to enjoy the console with all of the great experiences it offers.

Nintendo may not be able to make a AAA game every month by themselves, I get that, but why aren't they outsourcing more projects to talented external teams to keep the flow of games up? Why aren't they buying third party exclusives or pushing harder to get multiplats? Why aren't they at least showing us stuff like Metroid Prime 4 and Bayonetta 3 so we have something to get excited about and look forward to beyond just the next 4 months?

Not intending this as a personal shot, but rather a general point: fans suck when it comes to patience.  Fans tend to be simultaneously irritated when a company or console announces a game prematurely and when it doesn't.  And an added irritant in the former case is the level of "what have you done for me lately?" that comes along because even if Nintendo was putting consistent screenshots and updates on Metroid Prime 4 and Bayonetta 3, most people would be whining that those games are old news.  Damned if you do, and damned if you don't.  I can't really say that Nintendo's current focus on games closer to release is bad, overall.

Also, I've never understood why people get so hung up on AAA.  Especially as it relates to the Switch.  AAA is not what the system was designed for (Nintendo's own top properties aside), and it is not what anyone should have ever expected.  Bethesda and Panic Button's work is a bonus, not a sign of what we should expect.  When Nintendo went blue ocean, it targeted it's own properties, AAs, the handheld market and indies.   And FWIW, that's the same rough line-up that saw the 7th generation DS and PSP sell nearly a quarter billion units.  Or, more realistically, has their 8th generation counterparts at a combined 90 million.

As far as keeping the flow of games up, Nintendo has published at least nine titles that have shipped over a million units in the 2018 calendar year: BOTW, SMO, MK8, Splatoon 2, Kirby, Mario Tennis, DKTF, Labo and Octopath.  No, we're not talking about God of War level sales (until Pokemon and Smash drop), but it is honestly impossible to argue that Nintendo hasn't actually kept the flow of games up.  The fact that it already has a healthy lineup of new and evergreen titles pushing sales is actually impressive.



DreadPirateRoberts said:
curl-6 said:

Nintendo may not be able to make a AAA game every month by themselves, I get that, but why aren't they outsourcing more projects to talented external teams to keep the flow of games up? Why aren't they buying third party exclusives or pushing harder to get multiplats? Why aren't they at least showing us stuff like Metroid Prime 4 and Bayonetta 3 so we have something to get excited about and look forward to beyond just the next 4 months?

Not intending this as a personal shot, but rather a general point: fans suck when it comes to patience.  Fans tend to be simultaneously irritated when a company or console announces a game prematurely and when it doesn't.  And an added irritant in the former case is the level of "what have you done for me lately?" that comes along because even if Nintendo was putting consistent screenshots and updates on Metroid Prime 4 and Bayonetta 3, most people would be whining that those games are old news.  Damned if you do, and damned if you don't.  I can't really say that Nintendo's current focus on games closer to release is bad, overall.

Also, I've never understood why people get so hung up on AAA.  Especially as it relates to the Switch.  AAA is not what the system was designed for (Nintendo's own top properties aside), and it is not what anyone should have ever expected.  Bethesda and Panic Button's work is a bonus, not a sign of what we should expect.  When Nintendo went blue ocean, it targeted it's own properties, AAs, the handheld market and indies.   And FWIW, that's the same rough line-up that saw the 7th generation DS and PSP sell nearly a quarter billion units.  Or, more realistically, has their 8th generation counterparts at a combined 90 million.

As far as keeping the flow of games up, Nintendo has published at least nine titles that have shipped over a million units in the 2018 calendar year: BOTW, SMO, MK8, Splatoon 2, Kirby, Mario Tennis, DKTF, Labo and Octopath.  No, we're not talking about God of War level sales (until Pokemon and Smash drop), but it is honestly impossible to argue that Nintendo hasn't actually kept the flow of games up.  The fact that it already has a healthy lineup of new and evergreen titles pushing sales is actually impressive.

I think it's pretty reasonable to be impatient when Nintendo announce Prime 4 in June 2017 and have shown nothing of it at the end of August 2018. If you don't have anything to show of a game and don't intend to show anything for over a year in advance, don't fucking announce it. Or better yet, just show us some gameplay, like the should have at this E3.

Nintendo haven't kept up a flow of high quality, new games in 2018; DKTF is a regurgitation of a game from 2014, Kirby Star Allies and Mario Tennis are mediocre, Octopath is really their only high quality new release since Xenoblade 2 last December, so the past 8 months. By contrast, in 2017 we had Breath of the Wild, Splatoon 2, Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle, Mario Odyssey, and Xenoblade 2, five brand new high quality games in the space of 9 months.



Maybe 75 million units lifetime.



mZuzek said:
curl-6 said:

I think it's pretty reasonable to be impatient when Nintendo announce Prime 4 in June 2017 and have shown nothing of it at the end of August 2018. If you don't have anything to show of a game and don't intend to show anything for over a year in advance, don't fucking announce it. Or better yet, just show us some gameplay, like the should have at this E3.

Would you rather not even know Prime 4 was a thing up to this day? Maybe. But most people wouldn't. This is a game people have been asking for for ages, in a much beloved franchise that was quite tarnished by the two games we don't speak of. Nintendo's announcement was basically just to appease those people: "hey guys, here it is, we're making it", end of story. It was very obvious that it was extremely early in development and was only announced to calm fans about it - there was no CG trailer, no music, no concept art, no nothing besides a quickly put together video showcasing a quickly put together logo of Metroid Prime with a wacky 4 next to it. Announcing Metroid Prime 4 in the way they did was, regardless of your opinion on it, the right move - it appeased fans, and by not showing even the slightest hint of what the game could be like, it also serves as a soft announcement that won't leave people counting the days in excitement (which isn't a good thing if your game is over 2 years away from completion).

Edit: also, announcing Prime 4 back at E3 last year was almost a necessity, because of how bad it would have looked otherwise for Metroid, with only Samus Returns being announced. As good as that game was, it would have left a lot of insecurity over the future of the franchise when the only game announced for it is a low-budget 3DS remake, while other franchises get massive new games such as Breath of the Wild and Super Mario Odyssey.

But to then go completely dark on it for the past 14+ months is just unfair to fans. They should have shown us something at this E3, at least a cinematic trailer to give us an idea of the direction they are taking with it. This silent treatment was one of the most toxic things about the Wii U era and they're doing it again.