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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 21 July 2018

Or maybe it will drop below 200k next week, thats possible too.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

That's it though, it's baseline average has been under 200k, why would that baseline now be raised long term?

Well why has Switch remained at ~50k/week in Japan for the last month without major sellers when it was doing in the mid 30s-low 40s for most of the Spring?

Momentum is high from the really solid & diverse lineup from mid June-mid July. Fortnite, Paladins, Hollow Knight, Mario Tennis, Minecraft, Lego Incredibles, Crash, Wolfenstein, Ys, Octopath, Shining Resonance & Captain Toad all released between June 12-July 14.

Thats a really great lineup for a 5 week stretch and includes games from many genres that appeal to various demographics. That combined with the evergreen titles that keep moving hardware can potentially keep sales stable for the coming weeks.

Japan is one thing, the world is another. Switch jumped up over 200k with the breakout success of Octopath, but that boost won't last forever.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

Well why has Switch remained at ~50k/week in Japan for the last month without major sellers when it was doing in the mid 30s-low 40s for most of the Spring?

Momentum is high from the really solid & diverse lineup from mid June-mid July. Fortnite, Paladins, Hollow Knight, Mario Tennis, Minecraft, Lego Incredibles, Crash, Wolfenstein, Ys, Octopath, Shining Resonance & Captain Toad all released between June 12-July 14.

Thats a really great lineup for a 5 week stretch and includes games from many genres that appeal to various demographics. That combined with the evergreen titles that keep moving hardware can potentially keep sales stable for the coming weeks.

Japan is one thing, the world is another. Switch jumped up over 200k with the breakout success of Octopath, but that boost won't last forever.

Its been over 200k for 5 of the last 6 weeks, this is only Octopath's 2nd week......how does that work?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

Japan is one thing, the world is another. Switch jumped up over 200k with the breakout success of Octopath, but that boost won't last forever.

Its been over 200k for 5 of the last 6 weeks, this is only Octopath's 2nd week......how does that work?

Switch did 168k and 176k the two weeks prior to Octopath

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237172&page=1

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=236988&page=1



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

Well why has Switch remained at ~50k/week in Japan for the last month without major sellers when it was doing in the mid 30s-low 40s for most of the Spring?

Momentum is high from the really solid & diverse lineup from mid June-mid July. Fortnite, Paladins, Hollow Knight, Mario Tennis, Minecraft, Lego Incredibles, Crash, Wolfenstein, Ys, Octopath, Shining Resonance & Captain Toad all released between June 12-July 14.

Thats a really great lineup for a 5 week stretch and includes games from many genres that appeal to various demographics. That combined with the evergreen titles that keep moving hardware can potentially keep sales stable for the coming weeks.

Japan is one thing, the world is another. Switch jumped up over 200k with the breakout success of Octopath, but that boost won't last forever.

Momentum is up from Smash/Fortnite and flow of great releases. No major system seller but i think the small to medium releases will maintain the switch around 200k. In august there is Monster Hunter and Switch was stable (as of now) in japan. September and further wont be an issue.



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curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

Well why has Switch remained at ~50k/week in Japan for the last month without major sellers when it was doing in the mid 30s-low 40s for most of the Spring?

Momentum is high from the really solid & diverse lineup from mid June-mid July. Fortnite, Paladins, Hollow Knight, Mario Tennis, Minecraft, Lego Incredibles, Crash, Wolfenstein, Ys, Octopath, Shining Resonance & Captain Toad all released between June 12-July 14.

Thats a really great lineup for a 5 week stretch and includes games from many genres that appeal to various demographics. That combined with the evergreen titles that keep moving hardware can potentially keep sales stable for the coming weeks.

Japan is one thing, the world is another. Switch jumped up over 200k with the breakout success of Octopath, but that boost won't last forever.

No, Switch jumped up over 200k during the week of E3, and has remained above that number in all but one week since. VGChartz did not reflect this until the NPD numbers for June were released, which is when everyone realized that Swtich was actually tracking 40% higher than we originally thought in the US. This coincides with increased momentum in Japan: Look at this graph of Media Create data to see the increased baseline starting with week 24, E3 week.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8867085

Since the sales rate in Japan has remained stable since the middle of June, it's not a stretch to assume that the same holds true for the rest of the world, considering we have solid data showing Japan's sales moving in tandem with sales in the US.

Last edited by StarDoor - on 15 August 2018

curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

Its been over 200k for 5 of the last 6 weeks, this is only Octopath's 2nd week......how does that work?

Switch did 168k and 176k the two weeks prior to Octopath

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237172&page=1

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=236988&page=1

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=234574&page=1

This says otherwise



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

Switch did 168k and 176k the two weeks prior to Octopath

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237172&page=1

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=236988&page=1

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=234574&page=1

This says otherwise

So VGC hardware numbers were wrong then and have since been adjusted? I was simply going off the numbers as they were announced.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=234574&page=1

This says otherwise

So VGC hardware numbers were wrong then and have since been adjusted? I was simply going off the numbers as they were announced.

Correct, like StarDoor said they were undertracking it in the US for June.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

So VGC hardware numbers were wrong then and have since been adjusted? I was simply going off the numbers as they were announced.

Correct, like StarDoor said they were undertracking it in the US for June.

Ah, alrighty, disregard my previous statements then, turns out I was operating on incorrect data.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.