By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - How is the Switch going to sell 20M when it only sold 1.88M this quarter?

Amnesia said:
zorg1000 said:
Wii in fiscal year Apr 09-Mar 10 is probably the best comparison.

Q1-2.23
Q2-3.52
Q3-11.31
Q4-3.48

It kinda just coasted with small-medium tier titles for most of the year and had two big things that pushed sales like crazy during the holidays.

1. Price cut in the last week of Sept.
2. New Super Mario Bros Wii in Nov.

Its similar to Switch this year in that its been coasting with some medium tier titles and is saving two big guns for the holidays, Pokemon & Smash Bros while likely also getting its first value bundles.

Thank you for the data. Do you know where we can find EVERY fiscal Q results for every machines ?

So I still bet that Switch will break the Q3 record of all time and make a 12M. So 20M is still reachable :

Q1 = 1,88

Q2 = 4

Q3 = 12

Q4 = 4

If they make a price cut they can reach 22M+

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Video_Game_Sales_Wiki

This site has a decent amount of data you are looking for.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Around the Network

Oooohh yes it has :)



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TGM3 MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Western record on TGM3 EASY : 1484
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

People walk into a shop and buy it. Specifally 18million people in the next 9 months. It will probably sell arpund 10 million in Q3 alone.



Nintendo usually sells 50%+ of their consoles during Q3. And I am sure they are banking on 10M+ in that quarter this year and with Super Mario Party, Pokemon and Smash.. It's very much a good posibility that happens.

I am sure they were hoping for an increase YOY but it was close to flat so it probably doesnt matter. The system was never going to sell a lot more than 2M in Q1.



Mbolibombo said:
Nintendo usually sells 50%+ of their consoles during Q3. And I am sure they are banking on 10M+ in that quarter this year and with Super Mario Party, Pokemon and Smash.. It's very much a good posibility that happens.

I am sure they were hoping for an increase YOY but it was close to flat so it probably doesnt matter. The system was never going to sell a lot more than 2M in Q1.

2M for this Q1 and 20M total would have been clean milestones for them. Maybe they released the Q result late because they were adjusting again and again the numbers hoping that it could be 20M...



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TGM3 MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Western record on TGM3 EASY : 1484
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

Around the Network

Even before Q1's numbers came in relatively soft, 20 million was a tough ask. I'm not confident Nintendo will reach it, but I also wouldn't concretely rule it out yet. The final six months of this fiscal year are a big test for Switch. Personally I think 18 million is likeliest and, let's be clear, that's still a big accomplishment and a successful year for Nintendo and for Switch - I suspect if Nintendo have another weak quarter from July to September (~2m rather than ~3m in the quarter), they'll have to lower the prediction at their next set of results.

That being said, regardless of whether or not they hit 20 million, I expect Nintendo to have a massive second half to their fiscal year. I expect they could ship somewhere in the region of 13-14 million Switch units from October through to March, on the back of Pokemon, Smash, the combined Super Mario Party, Just Dance, Star Link in October, 'evergreen' titles becoming bundled (Odyssey, Kart, Zelda, Splatoon 2), and some Black Friday promotions.

The 'wildcard' things that could swing Nintendo to the 20 million mark would be any combination of:
- Labo actually drive hardware sales from September onwards
- extremely aggressive Black Friday discounts
- a September price-cut
- Pokemon/Smash lifting the baseline momentum and powering a strong Q4
- a major Q4 title (Animal Crossing, Mario Maker/Bros) providing another boost.



They usually will sell on the last quarter with bundle and discount. Smash Brosh and Pokemon also are heavy hitters , and of course 

they will sell it with

Last edited by HollyGamer - on 01 August 2018

zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

Man there are a lot of people that swear Nintendo wasn't counting on Labo to push sales and that they launched it in Q1 to have it pushing more sales on Q3.

Well to be fair, the head of Nintendo France said they expect April-Sept to only represent 20% of Labo sales this year.

Have he said it before or after the initial sales? For me it seem strange to launch something in April only expecting it to sell in Holidays (even more considering the inventory space it take). But perhaps they run the numbers and it made sense and making more exposition before holiday was better than being the hot new item on holiday.

But if Nintendo really didn't expect much sales on Q1 due to Labo then listing Labo as HW pusher for Q1 would be equally wrong.

Jumpin said:

Why do we need another thread for this?
Another one was literally just made yesterday.

Just to repeat: Q1 numbers are bad to go by since they're not really much of an indication of the annual total, and are typically on the low side; sometimes as low as around 5% of annual sales.

If VG chartz numbers are anywhere near accurate, then Nintendo sold 2.3M units in Q1, which is 412K higher than shipment. This means Nintendo under-shipped this quarter for whatever reason; they might be launching in new markets, overshot the previous year, or with new bundles this quarter.

Q1+2 gives a far better picture for the year, and obviously, Q3 is the one that counts since that is most of Nintendo's annual sales (Q3 is 55-65% typically for home consoles and usually informs Q4 shipments).

One thing we know is that for short term VGC is anything but accurate =p

Amnesia said:
zorg1000 said:
Wii in fiscal year Apr 09-Mar 10 is probably the best comparison.

Q1-2.23
Q2-3.52
Q3-11.31
Q4-3.48

It kinda just coasted with small-medium tier titles for most of the year and had two big things that pushed sales like crazy during the holidays.

1. Price cut in the last week of Sept.
2. New Super Mario Bros Wii in Nov.

Its similar to Switch this year in that its been coasting with some medium tier titles and is saving two big guns for the holidays, Pokemon & Smash Bros while likely also getting its first value bundles.

Thank you for the data. Do you know where we can find EVERY fiscal Q results for every machines ?

So I still bet that Switch will break the Q3 record of all time and make a 12M. So 20M is still reachable :

Q1 = 1,88

Q2 = 4

Q3 = 12

Q4 = 4

If they make a price cut they can reach 22M+

Shipment per Q will be hard and you'll have to look at each financial statement available (several of them don't have explicit numbers).

On VGC you can manually look each month for each platform but it's a lot of work.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Pokemon is the key.



The PS4 sold I believe

7.5 million its launch partial year (Nov-March 2014)
14.8 million it's first full fiscal year (Ending March 2015)
17.7 million its second full fiscal year (Ending March 2016)

Switch sold

2.74 million 1 month launch (March 2017 only)
15.05 million its first full fiscal year (Ending March 2018)

The way I see it anything over 17.5 is a pretty good success and keeping in line with the PS4, granted the PS4 had a few extra months because it launched in November instead of March. But if we're looking at full fiscal years.

20 mill is a nice number, but I don't think it's the be all, end all. Anything above 17 mill for the fiscal year indicates healthy Switch performance and is keeping in line with the PS4's sales at about the same age. What's more important is not having up and down quarters as much. You don't want so much riding on the holiday season, that's not how a successful hardware platform should operate, sales momentum should be a more consistent throughout the year.