How is the Switch going to sell 20M when it only sold 1.88M this quarter?

[DonFerrari]

zorg1000 said:

DonFerrari said:

Man there are a lot of people that swear Nintendo wasn't counting on Labo to push sales and that they launched it in Q1 to have it pushing more sales on Q3.

Well to be fair, the head of Nintendo France said they expect April-Sept to only represent 20% of Labo sales this year.

Have he said it before or after the initial sales? For me it seem strange to launch something in April only expecting it to sell in Holidays (even more considering the inventory space it take). But perhaps they run the numbers and it made sense and making more exposition before holiday was better than being the hot new item on holiday.

But if Nintendo really didn't expect much sales on Q1 due to Labo then listing Labo as HW pusher for Q1 would be equally wrong.

Jumpin said:

Why do we need another thread for this?
Another one was literally just made yesterday.

Just to repeat: Q1 numbers are bad to go by since they're not really much of an indication of the annual total, and are typically on the low side; sometimes as low as around 5% of annual sales.

If VG chartz numbers are anywhere near accurate, then Nintendo sold 2.3M units in Q1, which is 412K higher than shipment. This means Nintendo under-shipped this quarter for whatever reason; they might be launching in new markets, overshot the previous year, or with new bundles this quarter.

Q1+2 gives a far better picture for the year, and obviously, Q3 is the one that counts since that is most of Nintendo's annual sales (Q3 is 55-65% typically for home consoles and usually informs Q4 shipments).

One thing we know is that for short term VGC is anything but accurate =p

Amnesia said:

zorg1000 said:
Wii in fiscal year Apr 09-Mar 10 is probably the best comparison.

Q1-2.23
Q2-3.52
Q3-11.31
Q4-3.48

It kinda just coasted with small-medium tier titles for most of the year and had two big things that pushed sales like crazy during the holidays.

1. Price cut in the last week of Sept.
2. New Super Mario Bros Wii in Nov.

Its similar to Switch this year in that its been coasting with some medium tier titles and is saving two big guns for the holidays, Pokemon & Smash Bros while likely also getting its first value bundles.

Thank you for the data. Do you know where we can find EVERY fiscal Q results for every machines ?

So I still bet that Switch will break the Q3 record of all time and make a 12M. So 20M is still reachable :

Q1 = 1,88

Q2 = 4

Q3 = 12

Q4 = 4

If they make a price cut they can reach 22M+

Shipment per Q will be hard and you'll have to look at each financial statement available (several of them don't have explicit numbers).

On VGC you can manually look each month for each platform but it's a lot of work.