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Forums - Sales Discussion - How is the Switch going to sell 20M when it only sold 1.88M this quarter?

I can't find the post anymore but someone here told me something which means that approximately :

"It is not because SSB on Wii U sold 5M for 13,5M WiiU, that we can expect for the Switch >20M for potentially 60M of Switch minimum."

Because it is not a linear calculation, but it is more based on the fanbase quantity.

So if I understand well, it means that back in the past 10-5 years go, young people and young adults had the capacity to be seduced by SSB and become a member of this fan base, but not in 2018 today ? So only the already existing fan base will buy the game, but there is not while I am talking, some young 8-12 years children who see the trailers and footages of SSBU and say to their parent :


"- Hey mum I want this ! I want this game ! it looks awesome there is every nintendo in it !

- For Christmas if you are a nice boy until then."



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Price cut? Nintendo? Are we talking about the same company here?



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christopher5748 said:

i don't think it will, they had a weak 1st/2nd Q. Pokemon and smash are system sellers, plus with Mario and Zelda. they could have a great holiday. 

What? We're in the middle of the second quarter.

Also, while we don't have much data for Q2 yet, what we do have from Japan has shown increasingly stronger sales, sales have been consistently up 50% over the previous quarter.

Last edited by Jumpin - on 04 August 2018

I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Nintendo relies on 1st party games to do system selling, so if they have some BOTW type game coming out for holiday season, then maybe. But I think the xonsole sales will be lower this year because the expectation of the new Sony and MS consoles is starting to build up, and folks wait.



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konkari said:

Nintendo relies on 1st party games to do system selling, so if they have some BOTW type game coming out for holiday season, then maybe. But I think the xonsole sales will be lower this year because the expectation of the new Sony and MS consoles is starting to build up, and folks wait.

Sony and Microsoft sales don't have much to do with Nintendo.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

As a huge Nintendo fan, and someone who thinks we'll have a big holiday, I'm asking the same question. Only if Nintendo is holding a decent exclusive up their sleeve (along with a price cut) do I think they'll achieve those numbers. It's just hard to imagine they'll move 18 million consoles in 9 months.

I they said they'll get 16 million again this year, I wouldn't have batted an eye. 20 million, though... We'll have to see.



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Tmfwang said:

So, reports are in. The switch sold 1.88M units (actually shipped to retailers) in the period of April, May and June. Meanwhile, in the same period of time, the PS4 shipped 3.2 million consoles.

 

Now, Nintendo expects to sell 20M units this fiscal year?

and Sony expects to sell 17M units this fiscal year?

 

Either Nintendo is way too optimistic, and will end up with a lower-than-predicted sales-number which will most likely heavily impact their stock value. Or, Sony are way too pessimistic and want to low-ball their estimate and then exceed it handsomely.

 

Sources:

https://www.dualshockers.com/nintendo-shipped-19-67-million-switch-units-june-2018/



A third possibility:



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As has been brought up before, they under-shipped in Q1 as sales were quite a bit higher than shipments. Nintendo has been known to ship as little as 5% of their annual shipments during Q1. Q1 + Q2 shipments will give a better picture.



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I was predicting a disappointing fiscal year for Nintendo before it began, but now I may have to change my tune.  That's because Smash, by itself, was just not enough to reach 20m, and I knew that there was no way a new mainline Pokemon would come out in 2018.  Well there are three games that surprised me since then.

1) Pokemon Let's Go may not be a mainline Pokemon game, but it is still going to move a lot of hardware.  Pokemon has some really rabid fans.  There are people out there that just buy a system for the Pokemon games and nothing else.  These people will get this Let's Go game, and there are also going to be some converts from Pokemon Go.  This game will move hardware.

2&3)  I didn't think of Fortnite coming to Switch, nor did I foresee how successful Octopath Traveler was going to be.  Fortnite is just frikken huge and Switch is really the ideal platform to play it on.  Octopath will probably be the best selling title on the Switch released between April-September this year.  These games totally fill the gaps that Switch had in its first party lineup.  And then Mario Party, Pokemon Let's Go, and Smash will come out at the end of the year for a strong finish.  I was expecting Switch to lose momentum, but now I see that it isn't going to.

Will Switch reach 20m this fiscal year?  Not sure, but if it doesn't it will come really close.