I was predicting a disappointing fiscal year for Nintendo before it began, but now I may have to change my tune. That's because Smash, by itself, was just not enough to reach 20m, and I knew that there was no way a new mainline Pokemon would come out in 2018. Well there are three games that surprised me since then.
1) Pokemon Let's Go may not be a mainline Pokemon game, but it is still going to move a lot of hardware. Pokemon has some really rabid fans. There are people out there that just buy a system for the Pokemon games and nothing else. These people will get this Let's Go game, and there are also going to be some converts from Pokemon Go. This game will move hardware.
2&3) I didn't think of Fortnite coming to Switch, nor did I foresee how successful Octopath Traveler was going to be. Fortnite is just frikken huge and Switch is really the ideal platform to play it on. Octopath will probably be the best selling title on the Switch released between April-September this year. These games totally fill the gaps that Switch had in its first party lineup. And then Mario Party, Pokemon Let's Go, and Smash will come out at the end of the year for a strong finish. I was expecting Switch to lose momentum, but now I see that it isn't going to.
Will Switch reach 20m this fiscal year? Not sure, but if it doesn't it will come really close.