Even before Q1's numbers came in relatively soft, 20 million was a tough ask. I'm not confident Nintendo will reach it, but I also wouldn't concretely rule it out yet. The final six months of this fiscal year are a big test for Switch. Personally I think 18 million is likeliest and, let's be clear, that's still a big accomplishment and a successful year for Nintendo and for Switch - I suspect if Nintendo have another weak quarter from July to September (~2m rather than ~3m in the quarter), they'll have to lower the prediction at their next set of results.
That being said, regardless of whether or not they hit 20 million, I expect Nintendo to have a massive second half to their fiscal year. I expect they could ship somewhere in the region of 13-14 million Switch units from October through to March, on the back of Pokemon, Smash, the combined Super Mario Party, Just Dance, Star Link in October, 'evergreen' titles becoming bundled (Odyssey, Kart, Zelda, Splatoon 2), and some Black Friday promotions.
The 'wildcard' things that could swing Nintendo to the 20 million mark would be any combination of:
- Labo actually drive hardware sales from September onwards
- extremely aggressive Black Friday discounts
- a September price-cut
- Pokemon/Smash lifting the baseline momentum and powering a strong Q4
- a major Q4 title (Animal Crossing, Mario Maker/Bros) providing another boost.
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