| quickrick said: No ps4 is not under tracked, those are shipped numbers. |
YoY, it might be. Sony’s confirmed numbers are that it’s only down 0.1M, whereas VGC has it down almost 1M. I know VGC Starts it’s yearly tracking when the new year starts, but we’re Sony’s Q4 2017 numbers down that much?
0331 Happiness is a belt-fed weapon
zorg1000 said:
It all depends of the sales curve and legs. Lets look at Wii vs 3DS for example. Fiscal year 1-5 Wii-86.01 3DS-52.06
Fiscal year 5+ Wii-15.62 3DS-20.83 (still growing)
3DS was getting smashed by Wii in their prime years then Wii sales cratered while 3DS stabilized giving it a longer life. When all is said and done the first 5 fiscal years will represent over 85% of Wii sales and less than 70% of 3DS sales. If Switch has a sales curve and legs closer to 3DS than it has a shot of matching or surpassing Wii sales. |
But that's my point. If in that comparison, Wii after 5 years had 34m advantage over 3DS (a huuuuuge number that can probably be similar to what will happen to Switch) and then Wii sold 15m more, 3DS needs to sell at much higher rate after those years to be even close to Wii lifetime sales. If after year 5 Switch is around 65m-70m sales, which is what I predict, I don't see how Switch can sell 30-40m more...
So yes, Switch can have a curve more like 3DS (I don't think so), but it still will not be enough to catch up the Wii. It's too much of an advantage.
zorg1000 said:
It all depends of the sales curve and legs. Lets look at Wii vs 3DS for example. Fiscal year 1-5 Wii-86.01 3DS-52.06
Fiscal year 5+ Wii-15.62 3DS-20.83 (still growing)
3DS was getting smashed by Wii in their prime years then Wii sales cratered while 3DS stabilized giving it a longer life. When all is said and done the first 5 fiscal years will represent over 85% of Wii sales and less than 70% of 3DS sales. If Switch has a sales curve and legs closer to 3DS than it has a shot of matching or surpassing Wii sales. |
If it follows the 3DS sales curve, shouldn't it end at 80M-85M. Currently, it is ahead of the 3DS by 3.6% after all.
| Amnesia said: Thank you ! I have everything now. |
Is the red your projections for the Switch?
| MinatozakiSana said: Can PS4 sell 20m this year like it did last year? Spiderman and GOW are arguably their two biggest exclusives ever and both are released in 2018.. |
Doubt it can without a price drop.
But the other issue is that the PS4 doesn't need to sell 20M. Sony will be more than happy selling 18M@$300 and probbaly making over $100 in hardware profit then selling 20M @$200 and be breaking even.
thismeintiel said:
Is the red your projections for the Switch? |
Is being optimistic a crime ? :D
Yes this projection would allow to reach ~20M
thismeintiel said:
If it follows the 3DS sales curve, shouldn't it end at 80M-85M. Currently, it is ahead of the 3DS by 3.6% after all. |
I dont mean the exact sales curve, for example is Switch matches or at least comes close to their 20m goal this FY than that puts it quite a bit higher than 3DS.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
colafitte said:
But that's my point. If in that comparison, Wii after 5 years had 34m advantage over 3DS (a huuuuuge number that can probably be similar to what will happen to Switch) and then Wii sold 15m more, 3DS needs to sell at much higher rate after those years to be even close to Wii lifetime sales. If after year 5 Switch is around 65m-70m sales, which is what I predict, I don't see how Switch can sell 30-40m more... So yes, Switch can have a curve more like 3DS (I don't think so), but it still will not be enough to catch up the Wii. It's too much of an advantage. |
If Switch is in the 65-70m range at the same point that 3DS was 52m with ~33% of lifetime sales coming after that point (like 3DS) than it will be right there with Wii give or take a few million.
Im not saying this will happen, just that its possible.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
zorg1000 said:
Im not saying this will happen, just that its possible. |
It is definitely possible, but you gotta remember 3DS doesn't have a direct successor. It has an indirect successor in the Switch, and the sales impact really shows, but it still has pretty strong sales all things considered due to no 4DS. The Switch is likely to have a successor within 5-6 years of its lifetime, and when successors come out is when most consoles taper off.
Farsala said:
It is definitely possible, but you gotta remember 3DS doesn't have a direct successor. It has an indirect successor in the Switch, and the sales impact really shows, but it still has pretty strong sales all things considered due to no 4DS. The Switch is likely to have a successor within 5-6 years of its lifetime, and when successors come out is when most consoles taper off. |
Well Nintendo did say they want to go longer than the typical 5-6 cycle for Switch, whether or not that happens remains to be seen, but if it does that could help with legs.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
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