SIE Q1 2018 (Apr-June): 3.2m PS4s shipped (down vs Q1 2017@3.3m) / FY18 forecast increased to 17m

[zorg1000]

colafitte said:

zorg1000 said:

It all depends of the sales curve and legs. Lets look at Wii vs 3DS for example.

Fiscal year 1-5

Wii-86.01

3DS-52.06

 

Fiscal year 5+

Wii-15.62

3DS-20.83 (still growing)

 

3DS was getting smashed by Wii in their prime years then Wii sales cratered while 3DS stabilized giving it a longer life. When all is said and done the first 5 fiscal years will represent over 85% of Wii sales and less than 70% of 3DS sales.

If Switch has a sales curve and legs closer to 3DS than it has a shot of matching or surpassing Wii sales.

But that's my point. If in that comparison, Wii after 5 years had 34m advantage over 3DS (a huuuuuge number that can probably be similar to what will happen to Switch) and then Wii sold 15m more, 3DS needs to sell at much higher rate after those years to be even close to Wii lifetime sales. If after year 5 Switch is around 65m-70m sales, which is what I predict, I don't see how Switch can sell 30-40m more...

So yes, Switch can have a curve more like 3DS (I don't think so), but it still will not be enough to catch up the Wii. It's too much of an advantage. 

If Switch is in the 65-70m range at the same point that 3DS was 52m with ~33% of lifetime sales coming after that point (like 3DS) than it will be right there with Wii give or take a few million.

Im not saying this will happen, just that its possible.