SIE Q1 2018 (Apr-June): 3.2m PS4s shipped (down vs Q1 2017@3.3m) / FY18 forecast increased to 17m

[zorg1000]

thismeintiel said:

zorg1000 said:

It all depends of the sales curve and legs. Lets look at Wii vs 3DS for example.

Fiscal year 1-5

Wii-86.01

3DS-52.06

 

Fiscal year 5+

Wii-15.62

3DS-20.83 (still growing)

 

3DS was getting smashed by Wii in their prime years then Wii sales cratered while 3DS stabilized giving it a longer life. When all is said and done the first 5 fiscal years will represent over 85% of Wii sales and less than 70% of 3DS sales.

If Switch has a sales curve and legs closer to 3DS than it has a shot of matching or surpassing Wii sales.

If it follows the 3DS sales curve, shouldn't it end at 80M-85M. Currently, it is ahead of the 3DS by 3.6% after all. 

I dont mean the exact sales curve, for example is Switch matches or at least comes close to their 20m goal this FY than that puts it quite a bit higher than 3DS.