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Farsala on 03 August 2018
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zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

But that's my point. If in that comparison, Wii after 5 years had 34m advantage over 3DS (a huuuuuge number that can probably be similar to what will happen to Switch) and then Wii sold 15m more, 3DS needs to sell at much higher rate after those years to be even close to Wii lifetime sales. If after year 5 Switch is around 65m-70m sales, which is what I predict, I don't see how Switch can sell 30-40m more...

So yes, Switch can have a curve more like 3DS (I don't think so), but it still will not be enough to catch up the Wii. It's too much of an advantage. 


If Switch is in the 65-70m range at the same point that 3DS was 52m with ~33% of lifetime sales coming after that point (like 3DS) than it will be right there with Wii give or take a few million.

Im not saying this will happen, just that its possible.

It is definitely possible, but you gotta remember 3DS doesn't have a direct successor. It has an indirect successor in the Switch, and the sales impact really shows, but it still has pretty strong sales all things considered due to no 4DS. The Switch is likely to have a successor within 5-6 years of its lifetime, and when successors come out is when most consoles taper off.