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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Octopath restocked in Japan, sells out again within hours

Cerebralbore101 said:
Square- "Let's release a Final Fantasy type game exclusively on a home Nintendo console for the first time in decades."

Also Square- "I don't understand. How is this selling out?"

lol



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DonFerrari said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:
I don't understand how people can say "wow Square Enix fucked up by under-shipping this!" and then follow that up with "wowzaaa this is gonna sell 3-4M !!!"
Like, is the contradiction in that not clear?

Don't get me wrong, it's absolutely possible! But I'm left wondering, do we know how much has been shipped out yet? I'm sure there's some data out there, so I don't mind an education.

Not saying this is the case.

 

But would be funny people accusing SE of under estimating the game by shipping let's say 500k and saying the game will hit 5M, but in the end it does 1M.

Oh I have no doubt it will do very well and I think 3M, hell even 4M, is possible!

I just think we need to calm down a bit.



AngryLittleAlchemist said:
DonFerrari said:

Not saying this is the case.

 

But would be funny people accusing SE of under estimating the game by shipping let's say 500k and saying the game will hit 5M, but in the end it does 1M.

Oh I have no doubt it will do very well and I think 3M, hell even 4M, is possible!

I just think we need to calm down a bit.

Helding expectations in check is always better than deep diving in hype =p



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said: 

But would be funny people accusing SE of under estimating the game 

It's not even really an accusation at this point, more a matter of fact; SE undershipped the game, it's in such short supply that SE themselves have publicly come out and apologized.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
DonFerrari said: 

But would be funny people accusing SE of under estimating the game 

It's not even really an accusation at this point, more a matter of fact; SE undershipped the game, it's in such short supply that SE themselves have publicly come out and apologized.

When you fully quote and get the part that accusing SE of underestimating, but then overestimating... but you preffered to trim.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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DonFerrari said:
curl-6 said:

It's not even really an accusation at this point, more a matter of fact; SE undershipped the game, it's in such short supply that SE themselves have publicly come out and apologized.

When you fully quote and get the part that accusing SE of underestimating, but then overestimating... but you preffered to trim.

Because I wasn't addressing the other bit, my point was simply that it's not really an "accusation" to say SE undershipped OT, more just stating a fact SE have themselves already admitted to by apologizing for shortages.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
DonFerrari said:

When you fully quote and get the part that accusing SE of underestimating, but then overestimating... but you preffered to trim.

Because I wasn't addressing the other bit, my point was simply that it's not really an "accusation" to say SE undershipped OT, more just stating a fact SE have themselves already admitted to by apologizing for shortages.

Well I was joking, but ok. Yep considering they had a second shipment that finished very fast is quite clear they undershipped.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

AngryLittleAlchemist said:
I don't understand how people can say "wow Square Enix fucked up by under-shipping this!" and then follow that up with "wowzaaa this is gonna sell 3-4M !!!"
Like, is the contradiction in that not clear?

Don't get me wrong, it's absolutely possible! But I'm left wondering, do we know how much has been shipped out yet? I'm sure there's some data out there, so I don't mind an education.

I agree on this one. People gets the definition of selling out and success mixed up with actual numbers.

It was clear that SE underestimated the game success which meant they probably shipped less than 1M copies WW (Like I said in my estimate).

Otherwise, people now seems to be "forced" to go for the digital version which means it's ratio will probably be higher than your typical Switch big 3rd party games and well ... we probably ain't getting these numbers before a WHILE.

My total arbitrary educated guess on the matter makes it so that I think the game sold somewhere between 600K-800K including digital sales in it first week.

Now, we know there's a lot of good word of mouth about the game and it released during a rather slow time for big releases, which means that it has a least a big 2 months at most to make the bulk of it's sales. Though, it could also be possible that the game would unexpectedly have some good legs over the year 'til holidays which would mean that it wouldn't be too far-fetched to think the game could reach the 2M milestone. 

But, 3M-5M copies sold LT ?! I would throw myself from a bridge (in joy, mind you) if it were to truly happen.



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

The takeaway from this should be that the JRPG audience doesn't need its games to be as elaborate as FFXV. For years SE has been focused on cut-scene heavy narrative RPGs where every character is a virtual doll. For the most part, though, we're just happy to watch the numbers go up.



AngryLittleAlchemist said:
I don't understand how people can say "wow Square Enix fucked up by under-shipping this!" and then follow that up with "wowzaaa this is gonna sell 3-4M !!!"
Like, is the contradiction in that not clear?

Don't get me wrong, it's absolutely possible! But I'm left wondering, do we know how much has been shipped out yet? I'm sure there's some data out there, so I don't mind an education.

Nah. It is still a turn-based RPG in the now-time. It already sells great for what it is, but we shouldn't pull out outlandish predictions. With this initial success I think 2 million are possible, but still a question mark. 1.5M seems quite doable at this point, and this would still be a great milestone. 3-4M is just outlandish.

I mean, fucking Persona 5 has 1,7M on two platforms, maybe 2M counting digital. Do people really expect Octopath doubles that?



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