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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Opinion: Next Gen Console Lockhart, Anaconda and PS5 will be built to do Hardware Ray Tracing

Maybe the generation after next.. XB3 or PS6. Next gen, not a chance.

This won't be mainstream on PC for several years, never mind a 2020 (rumoured) $400-$500 console.



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JRPGfan said:
SvennoJ said:

My thoughts exactly. If it should be viable in 2020 on console, it should be available right now on PC. Are there any real time ray traced games on PC? NVidea has done ray trace demos for a long time, but I can't think of any games using this?

1080p30 though with grain, I wonder what this runs on.

That video is in a static enviroment, without anything happending except a camra that moves around.
Its done without denoise (which will probably be much more taxing), and its 1080p30, and probably done with like 2 x 1180's ( Volta GPUs).

Theres no way thats usable for a game, ment for a home console.
not in this gen, or the next (ps5/xb2).

Here is a better video demonstrating DX12 ray tracing.



JRPGfan said:
CGI-Quality said:

I have some Ray-tracing tools available to me, but it's specific and takes a lot of power (which I fortunately have). On top of that, it's nothing like what the upcoming NVIDIA GPUs will have, which includes the RTX Technology.

Just out of curiousity, if you tried to render something in 4k, with Raytraceing,... how much FPS do you output at? 5 fps? 10fps?

Technically, I can render in higher resolutions than 4K on my computer, but how it would move [perform] is another matter. This is becoming a bit of a routine for me, but I'll show you a character that I've polished up (using some elements of Ray-tracing on her skin, with wet effects there, in addition to, her clothes). Although the res I'm going to render it in far exceeds anything any console in the next 10 years or so will be doing, the level of detail is what you can expect. Just not not through Ray-tracing at the hardware level (trust me, those companies are not going there with this).

My point is, despite what I can achieve on my Rig, console manufacturers will find a way to get similar results for a huge fraction reduction of the cost. May not be 1:1 as polished, but this pic should serve as the benchmark of what you can expect, at the very least, to get out of next gen's most prominent visual stunners.



                                                                                                                                                           

Dream on.



Exhibit A:

A Ray-traced scene I worked on...

 

 

Although I expect quality to be similar with next gen's best games, if you look closely (I made sure that you could, having my PC compile it for you in wonderful 7680x4320 resolution ), you'll see that something serious had to be accomplished to reproduce that metal with such fine detail. Next gen consoles would probably choke trying to render just that still, let a lone, a fully functioning game.... And forget at anything higher than 1920x1080 (which is pretty outdated even today).



                                                                                                                                                           

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Also, have a read: https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/266600-nvidias-rtx-promises-real-time-ray-tracing

 

While those demos are very impressive, outside of Volta-based GPUs, you won't find that readily available. Believe me, I kick something every time I think about it, because I've been itching for that sort of thing to work with as a standard (considering my work). One of the reasons I moved a little away from strictly game development and more into character development is because of the knack I have for skin and cloth deformation. Ray-traced skin is very rare these days (metal and reflective surfaces are really where it shines), but with the uptick in realism, many artists are taking advantage of more advanced techniques, and thankfully, it doesn't always require Ray-tracing.

What one should hope for is, instead of these manufacturers chasing the "Big Dream", they seek to accomplish similar things without the expense of a top-tier feature. Ray-tracing is a Godsend in the 3D Community, which I'm of course a big part of, but in the gaming community, it is only recently being realized in a considerable way. But, these things take time and money, and with other costs that will already haunt these manufacturers, they shouldn't chase the Ray-tracing Dream until absolutely feasible to do so. It's not a standard even for most PC gamers.....and they've had access to exclusive features for decades. 

On the flip side, I'm 100% with all of you who are excited for the new stuff and are intrigued by this material. Watching technology change and evolve over the last 6 years has been one of my greatest treats in life. I love having access to the tools that I do and sharing some of the fruits of that labor with you guys. I'm just as eager to see what's next. But I want everyone who is a little less understanding of this stuff to temper expectations. As I've said plenty before - you are going to get some mighty big jumps over what we have today (physics will improve, elements on skin will improve, reflections will improve, etc, etc...). But, if you really need this Ray-tracing stuff in your life, PC is the best choice right now, especially if you doing any kind of serious 3D work. For consoles, the big thing for next gen will be Advanced SSS, Anistropic Filtering, Movie-quality Depth of Field, and vastly improved physics. 

Last edited by CGI-Quality - on 20 June 2018

                                                                                                                                                           

CGI-Quality said:

Exhibit A:

A Ray-traced scene I worked on...

 

 

Although I expect quality to be similar with next gen's best games, if you look closely (I made sure that you could, having my PC compile it for you in wonderful 7680x4320 resolution ), you'll see that something serious had to be accomplished to reproduce that metal with such fine detail. Next gen consoles would probably choke trying to render just that still, let a lone, a fully functioning game.... And forget at anything higher than 1920x1080 (which is pretty outdated even today).

What kind of sample count are we looking at here?
How long did it take to render?



caffeinade said:
CGI-Quality said:

Exhibit A:

A Ray-traced scene I worked on...

 -pic

Although I expect quality to be similar with next gen's best games, if you look closely (I made sure that you could, having my PC compile it for you in wonderful 7680x4320 resolution ), you'll see that something serious had to be accomplished to reproduce that metal with such fine detail. Next gen consoles would probably choke trying to render just that still, let a lone, a fully functioning game.... And forget at anything higher than 1920x1080 (which is pretty outdated even today).

What kind of sample count are we looking at here?
How long did it take to render?

Not long enough. I whipped that together in 10 minutes (around 1000 iterations in Octane), which is why there is some noise.



                                                                                                                                                           

SvennoJ said:
DonFerrari said:
The answer for your opinion is seeing if the top end of the PCs GPUs of today are doing it... so I don't think next gen real time ray tracing will be a thing...
CGI could possibly answer that more effectively if the games he is working involve it.

My thoughts exactly. If it should be viable in 2020 on console, it should be available right now on PC. Are there any real time ray traced games on PC? NVidea has done ray trace demos for a long time, but I can't think of any games using this?

1080p30 though with grain, I wonder what this runs on.

Basically this.

CGI-Quality said:
DonFerrari said:
The answer for your opinion is seeing if the top end of the PCs GPUs of today are doing it... so I don't think next gen real time ray tracing will be a thing...
CGI could possibly answer that more effectively if the games he is working involve it.

I have some Ray-tracing tools available to me, but it's specific and takes a lot of power (which I fortunately have). On top of that, it's nothing like what the upcoming NVIDIA GPUs will have, which includes the RTX Technology.

Which basically goes to not being nearly available on consoles =[

CGI-Quality said:

Also, have a read: https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/266600-nvidias-rtx-promises-real-time-ray-tracing

 

While those demos are very impressive, outside of Volta-based GPUs, you won't find that readily available. Believe me, I kick something every time I think about it, because I've been itching for that sort of thing to work with as a standard (considering my work). One of the reasons I moved a little away from strictly game development and more into character development is because of the knack I have for skin and cloth deformation. Ray-traced skin is very rare these days (metal and reflective surfaces are really where it shines), but with the uptick in realism, many artists are taking advantage of more advanced techniques, and thankfully, it doesn't always require Ray-tracing.

What one should hope for is, instead of these manufacturers chasing the "Big Dream", they seek to accomplish similar things without the expense of a top-tier feature. Ray-tracing is a Godsend in the 3D Community, which I'm of course a big part of, but in the gaming community, it is only recently being realized in a considerable way. But, these things take time and money, and with other costs that will already haunt these manufacturers, they shouldn't chase the Ray-tracing Dream until absolutely feasible to do so. It's not a standard even for most PC gamers.....and they've had access to exclusive features for decades. 

On the flip side, I'm 100% with all of you who are excited for the new stuff and are intrigued by this material. Watching technology change and evolve over the last 6 years has been one of my greatest treats in life. I love having access to the tools that I do and sharing some of the fruits of that labor with you guys. I'm just as eager to see what's next. But I want everyone who is a little less understanding of this stuff to temper expectations. As I've said plenty before - you are going to get some mighty big jumps over what we have today (physics will improve, elements on skin will improve, reflections will improve, etc, etc...). But, if you really need this Ray-tracing stuff in your life, PC is the best choice right now, especially if you doing any kind of serious 3D work. For consoles, the big thing for next gen will be Advanced SSS, Anistropic Filtering, Movie-quality Depth of Field, and vastly improved physics. 

But we could see use of this Ray Tracomg to make CGI (pre-rendered movies) and perhaps to create texture/animation/rasterization/pre-baked lightining right?



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Machiavellian said:
Barkley said:
I'd rather have 60fps than Ray Tracing.

I personally would like to have every graphical option and performance so I can choose on a game basis.  Not all games need 60fps.

I personally would like to have both graphical and hardware options so I could choose to have both.



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