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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Opinion: Next Gen Console Lockhart, Anaconda and PS5 will be built to do Hardware Ray Tracing

numberwang said:

Rasterization is so good and efficient that I don't see raytracing in real time in the next ten years in any AAA game.

 

Actual link: https://blogs.msdn.microsoft.com/directx/2018/03/19/announcing-microsoft-directx-raytracing/

That's a bit pessimistic. There are already some proof of concept realtime RT demonstrations and additional tech to facilitate it is gonna be introduced in the very next gen already. Of course it won't be the full experience but realtime RT is no longer just an idea, there is already consumer hardware on the way, which means it's not far off to be implemented in mainstream games.

Lots of AAA games go for new tech, even if just optionally, like tessellation or hair works. I predict that there will definitely be at least one AAA game within the next 5 years that will use realtime RT.

Unless you are talking about consoles. No idea where that shit will go.



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MS is no stranger to coprocessor design and looking at the custom chip they created for HoloLens coupled with an Intel Atom Chipset, I could easily see them performing the same thing with the next gen system. With multiple engine studios saying they will support DX12 Ray tracing, now would be a perfect time to invest in a custom chipset to showcase the tech and maybe bring it into the now.

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/08/22/microsoft_hololens_hpu/



I'd rather have 60fps than Ray Tracing.



I find that unlikely. Ray tracing is very demanding on hardware. In order to hit the level of power they'd need to be able to do it at a reasonable price ($500 at most), they'd have to wait until like 2022 to release Scarlett, and that's not happening, PS5 will release by 2020 at the latest and MS won't let their competition have a 2 year sales headstart.

More likely the goal with Scarlett/Xbox 4 will be native 4k 60 fps on most games with a small graphics boost over this gen. Then maybe when they release Xbox 4 X in 2023 they will use that extra power to upgrade graphics and do things like ray tracing, since the mid gen upgrade next gen won't be about resolution like this gen, since 8K tv's won't be common until the generation after next.

Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 20 June 2018

Barkley said:
I'd rather have 60fps than Ray Tracing.

I personally would like to have every graphical option and performance so I can choose on a game basis.  Not all games need 60fps.



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shikamaru317 said:

I find that unlikely. Ray tracing is very demanding on hardware. In order to hit the level of power they'd need to be able to do it at a reasonable price ($500 at most), they'd have to wait until like 2022 to release Scarlett, and that's not happening, PS5 will release by 2020 at the latest and MS won't let their competition have a 2 year sales headstart.

More likely the goal with Scarlett/Xbox 4 will be native 4k 60 fps on most games with a small graphics boost over this gen. Then maybe when they release Xbox 4 X in 2023 they will use that extra power to upgrade graphics and do things like ray tracing, since the mid gen upgrade next gen won't be about resolution like this gen, since 8K tv's won't be common until the generation after next.

If we are looking at just using current CPU/GPU tech I would agree.  This is always the advantage of consoles is there ability to marry custom design we would not see within a traditional PC setup.  Looking at how MS created their own custom coprocessor for Hololens which pretty much is exactly what they can do for Ray tracing.  The HoloLens coprocessor handles all the 3d environment, tracking and other calculations and pretty much hands that data to the CPU already cooked.  The same thing can be done with Ray Tracing where the coprocessor would handle all of the scenes cooked and hand it off to the GPU for final output.  The cost of such a chip would be pretty cheap or cheap enough to stay within the 500 budget.

The way I am looking at this is that MS has the tech, they now offer the software solution and have support for major engine developers and publishers.  You have a good 2 to 3 year span of time games to come out with the tech and showcase the work.  4K 60fps I do not believe provides enough wow factor to move the goal post for MS over Sony.  If you are going to go big then go big or go home.



Machiavellian said:
Barkley said:
I'd rather have 60fps than Ray Tracing.

I personally would like to have every graphical option and performance so I can choose on a game basis.  Not all games need 60fps.

Sounds like you neeed a PC.

In all seriousness, a lot of new shiny things are coming, but I wouldn't bet on this being one of them. In an iterative console? Perhaps.



                                                                                                                                                           

Machiavellian said:
shikamaru317 said:

I find that unlikely. Ray tracing is very demanding on hardware. In order to hit the level of power they'd need to be able to do it at a reasonable price ($500 at most), they'd have to wait until like 2022 to release Scarlett, and that's not happening, PS5 will release by 2020 at the latest and MS won't let their competition have a 2 year sales headstart.

More likely the goal with Scarlett/Xbox 4 will be native 4k 60 fps on most games with a small graphics boost over this gen. Then maybe when they release Xbox 4 X in 2023 they will use that extra power to upgrade graphics and do things like ray tracing, since the mid gen upgrade next gen won't be about resolution like this gen, since 8K tv's won't be common until the generation after next.

If we are looking at just using current CPU/GPU tech I would agree.  This is always the advantage of consoles is there ability to marry custom design we would not see within a traditional PC setup.  Looking at how MS created their own custom coprocessor for Hololens which pretty much is exactly what they can do for Ray tracing.  The HoloLens coprocessor handles all the 3d environment, tracking and other calculations and pretty much hands that data to the CPU already cooked.  The same thing can be done with Ray Tracing where the coprocessor would handle all of the scenes cooked and hand it off to the GPU for final output.  The cost of such a chip would be pretty cheap or cheap enough to stay within the 500 budget.

The way I am looking at this is that MS has the tech, they now offer the software solution and have support for major engine developers and publishers.  You have a good 2 to 3 year span of time games to come out with the tech and showcase the work.  4K 60fps I do not believe provides enough wow factor to move the goal post for MS over Sony.  If you are going to go big then go big or go home.

Thing is though, if they drop the AMD CPU + AMD GPU combo they lose backwards compatibility. At this point they've built up a massive catalog of backwards compatibility titles for 360 as well as a few for OG Xbox, a library which will be even bigger in 2020 when Xbox Scarlett most likely releases, and if they go with AMD + AMD again they will also have backwards compatibility with alot of Xbox One games by default, because they've been working with devs for awhile now to help the devs make their games forwards compatible with future AMD + AMD Xbox hardware. I can't see them giving that up to go with a custom solution just for ray tracing. Sure they could go the dual chip solution, and have both an AMD APU and a custom chip designed around ray tracing, but history shows that dual chip solutions usually don't work out well, they just make development harder for devs and only a handful of skilled devs end up utilizing the dual chip solution properly. A dual chip solution would also be expensive, as it is it's going to be hard to hit native 4k 60fps with a small graphical upgrade over this gen for $500 in 2020, a dual chip solution would either cause them to sell at a loss or make the next Xbox more expensive than $500 at release.

Nah, I think they will just aim for release in 2020 at $500 with native 4k 60 fps on most games, with some small-medium graphical upgrades over Xbox One X as well. Sure there's not a big wow factor there, but PS5 won't have a big wow factor either if it releases in 2019 or 2020. Maintaining backwards compatibility is a must, as that will be a big selling point for the 35m+ Xbox One owners (a number which will be over 50m by 2020 most likely). Their efforts to improve their first party for next gen with all these new studios will help to win over new fans as well. Then in say 2023 they can release their mid-gen upgrade and push graphics up closer to wherever PC ultra is at in 2023 (which will most likely include some ray tracing).



You aren't getting enough power into a 500 - 1000 USD box to perform real time ray tracing at an acceptable quality level.
Not this generation, not for the next gen.

Go look at the real time ray tracing demos from GDC.
If 3000USD+ GPUs can only barely do it, on today's games, how much compute power, memory, memory bandwidth, ect, is is going to take to do it on games that are vastly more graphically complex.

1080p30, with a still scene and 8th gen level visuals (with ray tracing on top).
They are using a hybrid approach (raster/ray trace), and they have thousands of dollars in GPU at their disposal.
I don't think Microsoft/Xbox could afford to build and sell a box capable of running tomorrow's games with ray tracing properly utilised.
Maybe for some effects like screen space reflections, that have issues normally, they could use ray tracing to help fill in the gaps.

You're not getting the full ray traced experience.
Not a full resolution, and/or 60 FPS.
Not in a game changing manner, not on consoles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkhBlmKtEAk
https://www.remedygames.com/experiments-with-directx-raytracing-in-remedys-northlight-engine/

"Ambient Occlusion"
"Single ray per pixel on 1080p is roughly 5ms"
That's on a powerful (or multiple powerful Volta GPUs).
This is only one portion of the rendering, so no, you're not getting this at 1080p or 4k next gen.
Ray tracing will be for high end systems, like high end PCs, with one or more high performance GPUs.

An FPGA or ASIC designed for ray tracing at this kind of quality, would be very expensive, and power hungry, and memory hungry, ect.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AQc27o4Oqg
Next gen games are going to be more complex than this, and adding ray tracing on top, is going to be extremely difficult for hardware to do, for the next 5 - 10 years.



Agreed @Caffienade. You'd need to build a monstrous,$3-4K PC to be able to realistically do this.....in any capacity. That is why it has taken to long to be implemented in the first place, because the tech is absolutely power hungry.