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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Opinion: Next Gen Console Lockhart, Anaconda and PS5 will be built to do Hardware Ray Tracing

CGI-Quality said:
Machiavellian said:

True, its a reach but I see MS laying the foundation now so by 2020, we could well seem some games using Raster and Ray Tracing together.  A Halo or Fable game with true global illumination would look pretty good if MS could accelerate Ray Tracing to perform that part of the graphical output.

It's not about a foundation, rather, cost. They aren't going to implement something like that unless they plan to charge you an enormous price for it. 

Do you believe a custom DSP type of chip like they use in Hololens would cost a lot.  Also, MS is at their best when they are behind instead of leading.  In other words, I believe because they have so much room to make up with Sony that they would be willing to go all out but still stay in that 500 buck terrority.  It is predicted that MS will have multiple consoles not just one coming up next gen.  This could be the balls to the wall edition.  Personally I would like to know the cost of the hololens co processor to get a ball park price point.



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Machiavellian said:
CGI-Quality said:

It's not about a foundation, rather, cost. They aren't going to implement something like that unless they plan to charge you an enormous price for it. 

Do you believe a custom DSP type of chip like they use in Hololens would cost a lot.  Also, MS is at their best when they are behind instead of leading.  In other words, I believe because they have so much room to make up with Sony that they would be willing to go all out but still stay in that 500 buck terrority.  It is predicted that MS will have multiple consoles not just one coming up next gen.  This could be the balls to the wall edition.  Personally I would like to know the cost of the hololens co processor to get a ball park price point.

They could go with a premium, $600, model and a $400 (personally, I'd prefer they do this at launch instead of releasing iterative consoles later on). However, even @ $600, a system with hardware Ray-tracing is very unlikely. It's just too expensive to do right now.



                                                                                                                                                           

The answer for your opinion is seeing if the top end of the PCs GPUs of today are doing it... so I don't think next gen real time ray tracing will be a thing...
CGI could possibly answer that more effectively if the games he is working involve it.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

I dunno about ray tracing, but I think Scarlet will be more powerful hardware than PS5. MS will eat the loss upfront if they have to, I think they have learned the XBox needs to have better specs so they can have the edge in multi-plats.



DonFerrari said:
The answer for your opinion is seeing if the top end of the PCs GPUs of today are doing it... so I don't think next gen real time ray tracing will be a thing...
CGI could possibly answer that more effectively if the games he is working involve it.

My thoughts exactly. If it should be viable in 2020 on console, it should be available right now on PC. Are there any real time ray traced games on PC? NVidea has done ray trace demos for a long time, but I can't think of any games using this?

1080p30 though with grain, I wonder what this runs on.



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CGI-Quality said:
Machiavellian said:

Do you believe a custom DSP type of chip like they use in Hololens would cost a lot.  Also, MS is at their best when they are behind instead of leading.  In other words, I believe because they have so much room to make up with Sony that they would be willing to go all out but still stay in that 500 buck terrority.  It is predicted that MS will have multiple consoles not just one coming up next gen.  This could be the balls to the wall edition.  Personally I would like to know the cost of the hololens co processor to get a ball park price point.

They could go with a premium, $600, model and a $400 (personally, I'd prefer they do this at launch instead of releasing iterative consoles later on). However, even @ $600, a system with hardware Ray-tracing is very unlikely. It's just too expensive to do right now.

^ this.

4k60 current graphics levels with Raytraceing is a dream, its not feasible at 400$... hell not even at 600$.
Its not something that you ll see next on consoles Machiavellian.

Maybe Playstation 6 / Xbox Three...



DonFerrari said:
The answer for your opinion is seeing if the top end of the PCs GPUs of today are doing it... so I don't think next gen real time ray tracing will be a thing...
CGI could possibly answer that more effectively if the games he is working involve it.

I have some Ray-tracing tools available to me, but it's specific and takes a lot of power (which I fortunately have). On top of that, it's nothing like what the upcoming NVIDIA GPUs will have, which includes the RTX Technology.



                                                                                                                                                           

SvennoJ said:
DonFerrari said:
The answer for your opinion is seeing if the top end of the PCs GPUs of today are doing it... so I don't think next gen real time ray tracing will be a thing...
CGI could possibly answer that more effectively if the games he is working involve it.

My thoughts exactly. If it should be viable in 2020 on console, it should be available right now on PC. Are there any real time ray traced games on PC? NVidea has done ray trace demos for a long time, but I can't think of any games using this?

1080p30 though with grain, I wonder what this runs on.

That video is in a static enviroment, without anything happending except a camra that moves around.
Its done without denoise (which will probably be much more taxing), and its 1080p30, and probably done with like 2 x 1180's ( Volta GPUs).

Theres no way thats usable for a game, ment for a home console.
not in this gen, or the next (ps5/xb2).



CGI-Quality said:
DonFerrari said:
The answer for your opinion is seeing if the top end of the PCs GPUs of today are doing it... so I don't think next gen real time ray tracing will be a thing...
CGI could possibly answer that more effectively if the games he is working involve it.

I have some Ray-tracing tools available to me, but it's specific and takes a lot of power (which I fortunately have). On top of that, it's nothing like what the upcoming NVIDIA GPUs will have, which includes the RTX Technology.

Just out of curiousity, if you tried to render something in 4k, with Raytraceing,... how much FPS do you output at? 5 fps? 10fps?



JRPGfan said:
CGI-Quality said:

They could go with a premium, $600, model and a $400 (personally, I'd prefer they do this at launch instead of releasing iterative consoles later on). However, even @ $600, a system with hardware Ray-tracing is very unlikely. It's just too expensive to do right now.

^ this.

4k60 current graphics levels with Raytraceing is a dream, its not feasible at 400$... hell not even at 600$.
Its not something that you ll see next on consoles Machiavellian.

Maybe Playstation 6 / Xbox Three...

I totally doubt we would see 4K60 with ray tracing.  Instead we would see some type of checkerboarding for the resolution at 30FPS.  You can have a performance mode and a graphical mode just like we are seeing today.  As for current games or cards doing ray tracing, MS has only just released support in DX12.  I guess we will have to see what is done in the next year to get an ideal how much support and capabilities can be done with current gen hardware.