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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Opinion: Next Gen Console Lockhart, Anaconda and PS5 will be built to do Hardware Ray Tracing

CGI-Quality said:
Agreed @Caffienade. You'd need to build a monstrous,$3-4K PC to be able to realistically do this.....in any capacity. That is why it has taken to long to be implemented in the first place, because the tech is absolutely power hungry.

I totally agree if we are only using today's tech.  This is why a dedicated coprocessor would be required.  The same type of tech used in HoloLens for the same type of purpose.  This is why it works in a console and not in a standard PC type of setup with current gen video cards.  Compatibility can still be maintained because the current implementation of DX12 Ray tracing supports current gen GPUs.  The coprocessor would just be used to offload the more intensive calculations, setup and cooking the scene.  The rest can be sent back to the APU for post processing and final output.



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Machiavellian said:
CGI-Quality said:
Agreed @Caffienade. You'd need to build a monstrous,$3-4K PC to be able to realistically do this.....in any capacity. That is why it has taken to long to be implemented in the first place, because the tech is absolutely power hungry.

I totally agree if we are only using today's tech.  This is why a dedicated coprocessor would be required.  The same type of tech used in HoloLens for the same type of purpose.  This is why it works in a console and not in a standard PC type of setup with current gen video cards.  Compatibility can still be maintained because the current implementation of DX12 Ray tracing supports current gen GPUs.  The coprocessor would just be used to offload the more intensive calculations, setup and cooking the scene.  The rest can be sent back to the APU for post processing and final output.

Now you are starting to think like the folks who designed the Playstation 3 and the Sega Saturn.

Let's just say none of the three companies would be inclined to be excited at those possibilities, shall we.



 

 

 

 

 

haxxiy said:
Machiavellian said:

I totally agree if we are only using today's tech.  This is why a dedicated coprocessor would be required.  The same type of tech used in HoloLens for the same type of purpose.  This is why it works in a console and not in a standard PC type of setup with current gen video cards.  Compatibility can still be maintained because the current implementation of DX12 Ray tracing supports current gen GPUs.  The coprocessor would just be used to offload the more intensive calculations, setup and cooking the scene.  The rest can be sent back to the APU for post processing and final output.

Now you are starting to think like the folks who designed the Playstation 3 and the Sega Saturn.

Let's just say none of the three companies would be inclined to be excited at those possibilities, shall we.

I am not talking about what the old school did where each new generation was a custom chip.  I am talking about a coprocessor that off loads processing.  Compatibility still remains and they keep the existing CPU/GPU design.  Why do you believe MS do not let the CPU do audio work and have a custom processor.  The reason is that offloading those function to a more efficient process helps with the overall performance of the system.



CGI-Quality said:
Machiavellian said:

True, its a reach but I see MS laying the foundation now so by 2020, we could well seem some games using Raster and Ray Tracing together.  A Halo or Fable game with true global illumination would look pretty good if MS could accelerate Ray Tracing to perform that part of the graphical output.

It's not about a foundation, rather, cost. They aren't going to implement something like that unless they plan to charge you an enormous price for it. 

Do you believe a custom DSP type of chip like they use in Hololens would cost a lot.  Also, MS is at their best when they are behind instead of leading.  In other words, I believe because they have so much room to make up with Sony that they would be willing to go all out but still stay in that 500 buck terrority.  It is predicted that MS will have multiple consoles not just one coming up next gen.  This could be the balls to the wall edition.  Personally I would like to know the cost of the hololens co processor to get a ball park price point.



The answer for your opinion is seeing if the top end of the PCs GPUs of today are doing it... so I don't think next gen real time ray tracing will be a thing...
CGI could possibly answer that more effectively if the games he is working involve it.



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I dunno about ray tracing, but I think Scarlet will be more powerful hardware than PS5. MS will eat the loss upfront if they have to, I think they have learned the XBox needs to have better specs so they can have the edge in multi-plats.



DonFerrari said:
The answer for your opinion is seeing if the top end of the PCs GPUs of today are doing it... so I don't think next gen real time ray tracing will be a thing...
CGI could possibly answer that more effectively if the games he is working involve it.

My thoughts exactly. If it should be viable in 2020 on console, it should be available right now on PC. Are there any real time ray traced games on PC? NVidea has done ray trace demos for a long time, but I can't think of any games using this?

1080p30 though with grain, I wonder what this runs on.



CGI-Quality said:
Machiavellian said:

Do you believe a custom DSP type of chip like they use in Hololens would cost a lot.  Also, MS is at their best when they are behind instead of leading.  In other words, I believe because they have so much room to make up with Sony that they would be willing to go all out but still stay in that 500 buck terrority.  It is predicted that MS will have multiple consoles not just one coming up next gen.  This could be the balls to the wall edition.  Personally I would like to know the cost of the hololens co processor to get a ball park price point.

They could go with a premium, $600, model and a $400 (personally, I'd prefer they do this at launch instead of releasing iterative consoles later on). However, even @ $600, a system with hardware Ray-tracing is very unlikely. It's just too expensive to do right now.

^ this.

4k60 current graphics levels with Raytraceing is a dream, its not feasible at 400$... hell not even at 600$.
Its not something that you ll see next on consoles Machiavellian.

Maybe Playstation 6 / Xbox Three...



SvennoJ said:
DonFerrari said:
The answer for your opinion is seeing if the top end of the PCs GPUs of today are doing it... so I don't think next gen real time ray tracing will be a thing...
CGI could possibly answer that more effectively if the games he is working involve it.

My thoughts exactly. If it should be viable in 2020 on console, it should be available right now on PC. Are there any real time ray traced games on PC? NVidea has done ray trace demos for a long time, but I can't think of any games using this?

1080p30 though with grain, I wonder what this runs on.

That video is in a static enviroment, without anything happending except a camra that moves around.
Its done without denoise (which will probably be much more taxing), and its 1080p30, and probably done with like 2 x 1180's ( Volta GPUs).

Theres no way thats usable for a game, ment for a home console.
not in this gen, or the next (ps5/xb2).



CGI-Quality said:
DonFerrari said:
The answer for your opinion is seeing if the top end of the PCs GPUs of today are doing it... so I don't think next gen real time ray tracing will be a thing...
CGI could possibly answer that more effectively if the games he is working involve it.

I have some Ray-tracing tools available to me, but it's specific and takes a lot of power (which I fortunately have). On top of that, it's nothing like what the upcoming NVIDIA GPUs will have, which includes the RTX Technology.

Just out of curiousity, if you tried to render something in 4k, with Raytraceing,... how much FPS do you output at? 5 fps? 10fps?