By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Opinion: Next Gen Console Lockhart, Anaconda and PS5 will be built to do Hardware Ray Tracing

It would be possible next gen if the games run in 720p, yet to do ray tracing for 4K, no way. Ray tracing looks great and can simplify game design as well I would think. Yet it's so power hungry the games will look a lot less detailed. The tomorrow children used ray tracing, looked great, nobody played. (game wasn't that fun)


The current battle for resolution pretty much rules out ray tracing as a viable technique for now.



Around the Network

One can only dream but I think tech won't be viable at a console price,

I would love to see a $2000 console lol. But that would be such a niche market.



 

 

CGI-Quality said:
Machiavellian said:

I personally would like to have every graphical option and performance so I can choose on a game basis.  Not all games need 60fps.

Sounds like you neeed a PC.

In all seriousness, a lot of new shiny things are coming, but I wouldn't bet on this being one of them. In an iterative console? Perhaps.

True, its a reach but I see MS laying the foundation now so by 2020, we could well seem some games using Raster and Ray Tracing together.  A Halo or Fable game with true global illumination would look pretty good if MS could accelerate Ray Tracing to perform that part of the graphical output.



shikamaru317 said:
Machiavellian said:

If we are looking at just using current CPU/GPU tech I would agree.  This is always the advantage of consoles is there ability to marry custom design we would not see within a traditional PC setup.  Looking at how MS created their own custom coprocessor for Hololens which pretty much is exactly what they can do for Ray tracing.  The HoloLens coprocessor handles all the 3d environment, tracking and other calculations and pretty much hands that data to the CPU already cooked.  The same thing can be done with Ray Tracing where the coprocessor would handle all of the scenes cooked and hand it off to the GPU for final output.  The cost of such a chip would be pretty cheap or cheap enough to stay within the 500 budget.

The way I am looking at this is that MS has the tech, they now offer the software solution and have support for major engine developers and publishers.  You have a good 2 to 3 year span of time games to come out with the tech and showcase the work.  4K 60fps I do not believe provides enough wow factor to move the goal post for MS over Sony.  If you are going to go big then go big or go home.

Thing is though, if they drop the AMD CPU + AMD GPU combo they lose backwards compatibility. At this point they've built up a massive catalog of backwards compatibility titles for 360 as well as a few for OG Xbox, a library which will be even bigger in 2020 when Xbox Scarlett most likely releases, and if they go with AMD + AMD again they will also have backwards compatibility with alot of Xbox One games by default, because they've been working with devs for awhile now to help the devs make their games forwards compatible with future AMD + AMD Xbox hardware. I can't see them giving that up to go with a custom solution just for ray tracing. Sure they could go the dual chip solution, and have both an AMD APU and a custom chip designed around ray tracing, but history shows that dual chip solutions usually don't work out well, they just make development harder for devs and only a handful of skilled devs end up utilizing the dual chip solution properly. A dual chip solution would also be expensive, as it is it's going to be hard to hit native 4k 60fps with a small graphical upgrade over this gen for $500 in 2020, a dual chip solution would either cause them to sell at a loss or make the next Xbox more expensive than $500 at release.

Nah, I think they will just aim for release in 2020 at $500 with native 4k 60 fps on most games, with some small-medium graphical upgrades over Xbox One X as well. Sure there's not a big wow factor there, but PS5 won't have a big wow factor either if it releases in 2019 or 2020. Maintaining backwards compatibility is a must, as that will be a big selling point for the 35m+ Xbox One owners (a number which will be over 50m by 2020 most likely). Their efforts to improve their first party for next gen with all these new studios will help to win over new fans as well. Then in say 2023 they can release their mid-gen upgrade and push graphics up closer to wherever PC ultra is at in 2023 (which will most likely include some ray tracing).

MS would not need to ditch the AMD CPU + GPU combo.  The good thing about having a discrete coprocessor is that it can just plug in like an audio chip or any other specialize processor.  This is where writing to an API aleviate all of the extra coding a developer would need to do in order to  work with such a setup.  The API would decide how to send what data to the coprocessor to crunch.  Allow it to cook the scene then send it back to the CPU/GPU for output.  No need to break compatibility since we are talking to the API and not the mettle here.  Since Ray Tracing is in DX12 with support for current gen GPUs, compatibility is still retained even if a coprocessor is not used.



CGI-Quality said:
Agreed @Caffienade. You'd need to build a monstrous,$3-4K PC to be able to realistically do this.....in any capacity. That is why it has taken to long to be implemented in the first place, because the tech is absolutely power hungry.

I totally agree if we are only using today's tech.  This is why a dedicated coprocessor would be required.  The same type of tech used in HoloLens for the same type of purpose.  This is why it works in a console and not in a standard PC type of setup with current gen video cards.  Compatibility can still be maintained because the current implementation of DX12 Ray tracing supports current gen GPUs.  The coprocessor would just be used to offload the more intensive calculations, setup and cooking the scene.  The rest can be sent back to the APU for post processing and final output.



Around the Network
shikamaru317 said:
Machiavellian said:

If we are looking at just using current CPU/GPU tech I would agree.  This is always the advantage of consoles is there ability to marry custom design we would not see within a traditional PC setup.  Looking at how MS created their own custom coprocessor for Hololens which pretty much is exactly what they can do for Ray tracing.  The HoloLens coprocessor handles all the 3d environment, tracking and other calculations and pretty much hands that data to the CPU already cooked.  The same thing can be done with Ray Tracing where the coprocessor would handle all of the scenes cooked and hand it off to the GPU for final output.  The cost of such a chip would be pretty cheap or cheap enough to stay within the 500 budget.

The way I am looking at this is that MS has the tech, they now offer the software solution and have support for major engine developers and publishers.  You have a good 2 to 3 year span of time games to come out with the tech and showcase the work.  4K 60fps I do not believe provides enough wow factor to move the goal post for MS over Sony.  If you are going to go big then go big or go home.

Thing is though, if they drop the AMD CPU + AMD GPU combo they lose backwards compatibility. At this point they've built up a massive catalog of backwards compatibility titles for 360 as well as a few for OG Xbox, a library which will be even bigger in 2020 when Xbox Scarlett most likely releases, and if they go with AMD + AMD again they will also have backwards compatibility with alot of Xbox One games by default, because they've been working with devs for awhile now to help the devs make their games forwards compatible with future AMD + AMD Xbox hardware. I can't see them giving that up to go with a custom solution just for ray tracing. Sure they could go the dual chip solution, and have both an AMD APU and a custom chip designed around ray tracing, but history shows that dual chip solutions usually don't work out well, they just make development harder for devs and only a handful of skilled devs end up utilizing the dual chip solution properly. A dual chip solution would also be expensive, as it is it's going to be hard to hit native 4k 60fps with a small graphical upgrade over this gen for $500 in 2020, a dual chip solution would either cause them to sell at a loss or make the next Xbox more expensive than $500 at release.

Nah, I think they will just aim for release in 2020 at $500 with native 4k 60 fps on most games, with some small-medium graphical upgrades over Xbox One X as well. Sure there's not a big wow factor there, but PS5 won't have a big wow factor either if it releases in 2019 or 2020. Maintaining backwards compatibility is a must, as that will be a big selling point for the 35m+ Xbox One owners (a number which will be over 50m by 2020 most likely). Their efforts to improve their first party for next gen with all these new studios will help to win over new fans as well. Then in say 2023 they can release their mid-gen upgrade and push graphics up closer to wherever PC ultra is at in 2023 (which will most likely include some ray tracing).

It doesnt work like that no more since they are using pretty much off the self PC components it means the consoles pretty much work like a PC now with their own custom OS.

So if a build a Windows 10 PC with an AMD CPU and GPU now and then in a few years build another Windows 10 PC but with an Intel CPU and NVidia GPU my old games will still work on the new pc. Thats now how consoles work too and is what they mean by "Forward compatible".



zero129 said:
shikamaru317 said:

Thing is though, if they drop the AMD CPU + AMD GPU combo they lose backwards compatibility. At this point they've built up a massive catalog of backwards compatibility titles for 360 as well as a few for OG Xbox, a library which will be even bigger in 2020 when Xbox Scarlett most likely releases, and if they go with AMD + AMD again they will also have backwards compatibility with alot of Xbox One games by default, because they've been working with devs for awhile now to help the devs make their games forwards compatible with future AMD + AMD Xbox hardware. I can't see them giving that up to go with a custom solution just for ray tracing. Sure they could go the dual chip solution, and have both an AMD APU and a custom chip designed around ray tracing, but history shows that dual chip solutions usually don't work out well, they just make development harder for devs and only a handful of skilled devs end up utilizing the dual chip solution properly. A dual chip solution would also be expensive, as it is it's going to be hard to hit native 4k 60fps with a small graphical upgrade over this gen for $500 in 2020, a dual chip solution would either cause them to sell at a loss or make the next Xbox more expensive than $500 at release.

Nah, I think they will just aim for release in 2020 at $500 with native 4k 60 fps on most games, with some small-medium graphical upgrades over Xbox One X as well. Sure there's not a big wow factor there, but PS5 won't have a big wow factor either if it releases in 2019 or 2020. Maintaining backwards compatibility is a must, as that will be a big selling point for the 35m+ Xbox One owners (a number which will be over 50m by 2020 most likely). Their efforts to improve their first party for next gen with all these new studios will help to win over new fans as well. Then in say 2023 they can release their mid-gen upgrade and push graphics up closer to wherever PC ultra is at in 2023 (which will most likely include some ray tracing).

It doesnt work like that no more since they are using pretty much off the self PC components it means the consoles pretty much work like a PC now with their own custom OS.

So if a build a Windows 10 PC with an AMD CPU and GPU now and then in a few years build another Windows 10 PC but with an Intel CPU and NVidia GPU my old games will still work on the new pc. Thats now how consoles work too and is what they mean by "Forward compatible".

This is not like PC backwards compatibility with games that were designed for an older operating system. It's also not like what you describe, because on PC games are designed to run on both AMD and Intel CPU's and on both AMD and Nvidia GPU's to start with, Xbox One games are designed to run only on the AMD APU in Xbox One, in order to run them on the next Xbox you would either need enough raw power to brute force your way through an unoptimized game, or run an emulator which allows Xbox One optimizations to be maintained. 

The emulation tech they use to run 360 and OG Xbox games is designed to run on the AMD+AMD Xbox One, it is my understanding that in order to properly keep that tech working next gen with near 100% compatibility, Xbox Scarlett will first have to emulate Xbox One, which will then allow the 360/OG Xbox emulators to run on the emulated Xbox One, emulation within emulation. Getting Xbox One emulation to run on say an Intel + Nvidia Xbox Scarlett would be tricky at best, just like how current PC's struggle to emulate current gen consoles, it will be much easier to maintain BC if they stick with AMD+AMD. 

Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 20 June 2018

Machiavellian said:
CGI-Quality said:
Agreed @Caffienade. You'd need to build a monstrous,$3-4K PC to be able to realistically do this.....in any capacity. That is why it has taken to long to be implemented in the first place, because the tech is absolutely power hungry.

I totally agree if we are only using today's tech.  This is why a dedicated coprocessor would be required.  The same type of tech used in HoloLens for the same type of purpose.  This is why it works in a console and not in a standard PC type of setup with current gen video cards.  Compatibility can still be maintained because the current implementation of DX12 Ray tracing supports current gen GPUs.  The coprocessor would just be used to offload the more intensive calculations, setup and cooking the scene.  The rest can be sent back to the APU for post processing and final output.

Now you are starting to think like the folks who designed the Playstation 3 and the Sega Saturn.

Let's just say none of the three companies would be inclined to be excited at those possibilities, shall we.



 

 

 

 

 

haxxiy said:
Machiavellian said:

I totally agree if we are only using today's tech.  This is why a dedicated coprocessor would be required.  The same type of tech used in HoloLens for the same type of purpose.  This is why it works in a console and not in a standard PC type of setup with current gen video cards.  Compatibility can still be maintained because the current implementation of DX12 Ray tracing supports current gen GPUs.  The coprocessor would just be used to offload the more intensive calculations, setup and cooking the scene.  The rest can be sent back to the APU for post processing and final output.

Now you are starting to think like the folks who designed the Playstation 3 and the Sega Saturn.

Let's just say none of the three companies would be inclined to be excited at those possibilities, shall we.

I am not talking about what the old school did where each new generation was a custom chip.  I am talking about a coprocessor that off loads processing.  Compatibility still remains and they keep the existing CPU/GPU design.  Why do you believe MS do not let the CPU do audio work and have a custom processor.  The reason is that offloading those function to a more efficient process helps with the overall performance of the system.



Machiavellian said:
CGI-Quality said:

Sounds like you neeed a PC.

In all seriousness, a lot of new shiny things are coming, but I wouldn't bet on this being one of them. In an iterative console? Perhaps.

True, its a reach but I see MS laying the foundation now so by 2020, we could well seem some games using Raster and Ray Tracing together.  A Halo or Fable game with true global illumination would look pretty good if MS could accelerate Ray Tracing to perform that part of the graphical output.

It's not about a foundation, rather, cost. They aren't going to implement something like that unless they plan to charge you an enormous price for it.