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Forums - Microsoft - Opinion: Next Gen Console Lockhart, Anaconda and PS5 will be built to do Hardware Ray Tracing

JRPGfan said:
CGI-Quality said:

They could go with a premium, $600, model and a $400 (personally, I'd prefer they do this at launch instead of releasing iterative consoles later on). However, even @ $600, a system with hardware Ray-tracing is very unlikely. It's just too expensive to do right now.

^ this.

4k60 current graphics levels with Raytraceing is a dream, its not feasible at 400$... hell not even at 600$.
Its not something that you ll see next on consoles Machiavellian.

Maybe Playstation 6 / Xbox Three...

I totally doubt we would see 4K60 with ray tracing.  Instead we would see some type of checkerboarding for the resolution at 30FPS.  You can have a performance mode and a graphical mode just like we are seeing today.  As for current games or cards doing ray tracing, MS has only just released support in DX12.  I guess we will have to see what is done in the next year to get an ideal how much support and capabilities can be done with current gen hardware.



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Maybe the generation after next.. XB3 or PS6. Next gen, not a chance.

This won't be mainstream on PC for several years, never mind a 2020 (rumoured) $400-$500 console.



JRPGfan said:
SvennoJ said:

My thoughts exactly. If it should be viable in 2020 on console, it should be available right now on PC. Are there any real time ray traced games on PC? NVidea has done ray trace demos for a long time, but I can't think of any games using this?

1080p30 though with grain, I wonder what this runs on.

That video is in a static enviroment, without anything happending except a camra that moves around.
Its done without denoise (which will probably be much more taxing), and its 1080p30, and probably done with like 2 x 1180's ( Volta GPUs).

Theres no way thats usable for a game, ment for a home console.
not in this gen, or the next (ps5/xb2).

Here is a better video demonstrating DX12 ray tracing.



Dream on.



CGI-Quality said:

Exhibit A:

A Ray-traced scene I worked on...

 

 

Although I expect quality to be similar with next gen's best games, if you look closely (I made sure that you could, having my PC compile it for you in wonderful 7680x4320 resolution ), you'll see that something serious had to be accomplished to reproduce that metal with such fine detail. Next gen consoles would probably choke trying to render just that still, let a lone, a fully functioning game.... And forget at anything higher than 1920x1080 (which is pretty outdated even today).

What kind of sample count are we looking at here?
How long did it take to render?



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SvennoJ said:
DonFerrari said:
The answer for your opinion is seeing if the top end of the PCs GPUs of today are doing it... so I don't think next gen real time ray tracing will be a thing...
CGI could possibly answer that more effectively if the games he is working involve it.

My thoughts exactly. If it should be viable in 2020 on console, it should be available right now on PC. Are there any real time ray traced games on PC? NVidea has done ray trace demos for a long time, but I can't think of any games using this?

1080p30 though with grain, I wonder what this runs on.

Basically this.

CGI-Quality said:
DonFerrari said:
The answer for your opinion is seeing if the top end of the PCs GPUs of today are doing it... so I don't think next gen real time ray tracing will be a thing...
CGI could possibly answer that more effectively if the games he is working involve it.

I have some Ray-tracing tools available to me, but it's specific and takes a lot of power (which I fortunately have). On top of that, it's nothing like what the upcoming NVIDIA GPUs will have, which includes the RTX Technology.

Which basically goes to not being nearly available on consoles =[

CGI-Quality said:

Also, have a read: https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/266600-nvidias-rtx-promises-real-time-ray-tracing

 

While those demos are very impressive, outside of Volta-based GPUs, you won't find that readily available. Believe me, I kick something every time I think about it, because I've been itching for that sort of thing to work with as a standard (considering my work). One of the reasons I moved a little away from strictly game development and more into character development is because of the knack I have for skin and cloth deformation. Ray-traced skin is very rare these days (metal and reflective surfaces are really where it shines), but with the uptick in realism, many artists are taking advantage of more advanced techniques, and thankfully, it doesn't always require Ray-tracing.

What one should hope for is, instead of these manufacturers chasing the "Big Dream", they seek to accomplish similar things without the expense of a top-tier feature. Ray-tracing is a Godsend in the 3D Community, which I'm of course a big part of, but in the gaming community, it is only recently being realized in a considerable way. But, these things take time and money, and with other costs that will already haunt these manufacturers, they shouldn't chase the Ray-tracing Dream until absolutely feasible to do so. It's not a standard even for most PC gamers.....and they've had access to exclusive features for decades. 

On the flip side, I'm 100% with all of you who are excited for the new stuff and are intrigued by this material. Watching technology change and evolve over the last 6 years has been one of my greatest treats in life. I love having access to the tools that I do and sharing some of the fruits of that labor with you guys. I'm just as eager to see what's next. But I want everyone who is a little less understanding of this stuff to temper expectations. As I've said plenty before - you are going to get some mighty big jumps over what we have today (physics will improve, elements on skin will improve, reflections will improve, etc, etc...). But, if you really need this Ray-tracing stuff in your life, PC is the best choice right now, especially if you doing any kind of serious 3D work. For consoles, the big thing for next gen will be Advanced SSS, Anistropic Filtering, Movie-quality Depth of Field, and vastly improved physics. 

But we could see use of this Ray Tracomg to make CGI (pre-rendered movies) and perhaps to create texture/animation/rasterization/pre-baked lightining right?



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Machiavellian said:
Barkley said:
I'd rather have 60fps than Ray Tracing.

I personally would like to have every graphical option and performance so I can choose on a game basis.  Not all games need 60fps.

I personally would like to have both graphical and hardware options so I could choose to have both.



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Thanks CGI for your input. As I do not do any graphical development its good to hear and understand all of the challenges required for Ray Tracing. I did not believe we would see a full scene doing Ray tracing but instead seeing it used to enhanced certain graphical features like reflection and certain lighting situations. The one thing I was wondering about is what AMD plans for hardware implementation. We heard about Nvidia with RTX but AMD did not make any real statement which lead me to believe they are working on something private with a OEM like MS or Sony. Either way, it should be interesting to see the direction both Sony and MS go with their next console and how similar and different each will be.



Sounds like an expensive piece of hardware, i don't mind, i can afford it.



Machiavellian said:

This is purely opinion and just peeping into the future but I believe that MS will target their next gen console which is rumored to be called Scarlett capable of doing real time ray tracing.  MS made this pitched a while back when they added ray tracing to DX12.

Ray Tracing will be a gradual transition, 7th gen games were already leveraging that technique to various degrees with great success.
Next gen hardware still won't have the capability to do it in real time however.

shikamaru317 said:

The emulation tech they use to run 360 and OG Xbox games is designed to run on the AMD+AMD Xbox One, it is my understanding that in order to properly keep that tech working next gen with near 100% compatibility, Xbox Scarlett will first have to emulate Xbox One, which will then allow the 360/OG Xbox emulators to run on the emulated Xbox One, emulation within emulation. Getting Xbox One emulation to run on say an Intel + Nvidia Xbox Scarlett would be tricky at best, just like how current PC's struggle to emulate current gen consoles, it will be much easier to maintain BC if they stick with AMD+AMD. 

The Xbox One isn't actually doing pure emulation anyway.
Plus  it's approach is fairly unique, when the Xbox One first dropped microsoft took a Multi-OS/Virtualization approach, which is partly why the emulation can happen despite the anemic hardware.
In short... The Xbox One's backwards compatibility doesn't give a shit about the hardware, but it does care about the software/API stacks.




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