Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan sales (Week 19): Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - May 7-13, 2018 ( aftermath)

160rmf said:
Megiddo said:

Assuming that people who wanted to buy one during Nov-Dec would have purchased one as soon as they were available (which is a logical assumption) then those sales are already accounted for.

Basically it's 4 million minus Switch YTD minus the sum of Nov-Dec 2017 Switch sales divided by remaining weeks. So instead of those sales being in the Nov-Dec 2017 section they're in the Switch YTD section. They still are accounted for in the approximations.

@160rmf Why would you expect the 2nd year of a Nintendo handheld/hybrid to sell the same as the 5th year of a dedicated home console?

That's not the point. What I am saying is that you're talking like if the 145k was the max it could get from holidays. But your parameters are weak when we all know it was supply constrained that period last year.

Right, but that doesn't matter because the spillover is already included in my calculations. If 200k people wanted to buy it in Nov-Dec but instead bought it in Jan/Feb/Mar then you would simply subtract 200k from Switch YTD and add it to Nov-Dec. The actual effect on the required weekly average is 0 since adding and subtracting the same number on one side of an equation is always zero.

Basically, whether or not there would have been more sales in Nov-Dec doesn't matter at all.



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Every week the same person comes in and converts it into a "stock issues" thread lol



Megiddo said:

Assuming that people who wanted to buy one during Nov-Dec would have purchased one as soon as they were available (which is a logical assumption) then those sales are already accounted for.

Poor assumption.

Some people are wiling to spend $300-400 on gadgets anytime of the year while other people will only spend that on special occassions (holiday/birthday/etc).

If a parent was looking to get a Switch for their kids as a Christmas present but couldnt find one and got their kids something else instead, they arent necessarily going to buy one just because its available a couple months later. They may wait until the following Christmas.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

I don't think it's a poor assumption at all. Assuming that's what the kid asked for the kid is going to get it 99% of the time.



Bro, context. You talked earlier like if THIS YEAR will be a hard task to achieve 4M units without taking into consideration that Switch can do a lot better than last year holidays bc it was heavily supply constrained in the same period.

Green098 said:
Megiddo said: 

Both consoles slide in sales post Golden Week. PS4 is now at 1/2 AWN and Switch is at 1/3 AWN. If similar sales continue then by this the Switch will have to sell on average 100,000 console each week for the last half of 2018 to reach 4 million units sold.

...or just sell good holiday numbers. You do know Nintendo consoles have had multiple 300-500k weeks before right?

 

Megiddo said:
Green098 said:

...or just sell good holiday numbers. You do know Nintendo consoles have had multiple 300-500k weeks before right?

Last year over November-December, the Switch averaged 145k over 9 weeks. If the Switch does the same then it will need to average around 75k/week starting next week through October.



 

 

We reap what we sow

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Megiddo said:
I don't think it's a poor assumption at all. Assuming that's what the kid asked for the kid is going to get it 99% of the time.

Thats not how parenting works, most parents dont just spend $300-400 on toys/gadgets for their kids on random weeks of the year.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

So parenting works by spending $300-400 for Xmas on something the kid doesn't want?



Megiddo said:
So parenting works by spending $300-400 for Xmas on something the kid doesn't want?

What are you talking about? Nothing i said implied that.

I said if parents were planning on getting a Switch for their kids over the holidays but couldnt find one because it was sold out than they would likely get their kids something else they wanted.

In that scenario the parents would not likely buy Switch on a random week since most parents dont spend that time of money on toys/gadgets for their kids outside of special occasions.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Megiddo said:
So parenting works by spending $300-400 for Xmas on something the kid doesn't want?

There's certainly more than just one thing a child wants. So if the primary choice falls flat, move on to the next one on the list of wanted things of the son/daughter.



Looking at Tropical Freeze's numbers, It looks you can chalk another one up on the list of "Ports of Wii U games on the Switch that are selling faster than or outsold their original Wii U counterparts."
- Mario Kart
- Pokken
- Bayonetta 1 & 2
- DKC

And I wouldn't be surprised if Hyrule Warriors joins that list as well. In fact, I expect it to.



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PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
(https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/241660/ps4xbons-2019-vs-2020/1/)