Forums - Gaming Discussion - " Update "When Can Sony Deliver A True Generational Leap? - Digital Foundry & Gamer NX

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No 2 9.52%
 
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Total:21
JRPGfan said:

I must be the only one here.... who doesnt care too much?

I rather sony try to keep it at 400$, than do a 500$ machine thats more powerfull ect.
Graphics are at a point where I honestly dont feel like I need much more.

15 Tflops @499$
13 Tflops at @449$
11 Tflops at @399$

Which is best? imo the 399$ one.

Yeah I've never really cared for graphics too much anyway, they're not the highlight of games for me, but considering what we're seeing with God of War on a standard PS4, whatever the power equivalent of a $399 console is in 2020-2021 or whatever will be more than enough, lol. 



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Seems in line with what I have been saying. CPU equivalent to a Ryzen 2700 (X), which is Zen+. GPU equivalent to a Vega 64, with a bunch of Navi cooked in, most likely on 7nm. ~12 Tflops. 16GB-32GB of GDDR6. 1GB-2GB of DDR4 for the OS.

At the latest it will be 2020, but I'm still calling 2019. $399-$449. 100M+ units sold. And hoping for PS1-PS4 B/C, though I'll settle for at least PS1, PS2, and PS4.



Yep, I was on the 2019 team for ps5 release but after jason's article I'm no longer. 2020 is probably the year Sony is aiming for.

Based on this and Eurogamers article this is the specs I believe we see in ps5:

Zen 2 with 8 cores and 16 threads, clocked at 3 ghz.
Navi gpu that has 14 TF.
18 GB ggdr6 with 768 GB/s memory bandwith.
1 TB ssd hard drive.

2020, 499$ launch price. It will be marketed as 4k/60fps machine.

Last edited by Trumpstyle - on 16 April 2018

6x master league achiever in starcraft2

Beaten Sigrun on God of war mode

Beaten DOOM ultra-nightmare with NO endless ammo-rune, 2x super shotgun and no decoys on ps4 pro.

1-0 against Grubby in Wc3 frozen throne ladder!!

Trumpstyle said:

Yep, I was on the 2019 team for ps5 release but after jason's article I'm no longer. 2020 is probably the year Sony is aiming for.

Based on this and Eurogamers article this are the spec I believe we see in ps5 now:

Zen 2 with 8 cores and 16 threads, clocked at 3 ghz.
Navi gpu that has 14 TF.
18 GB ggdr6 with 768 GB/s memory bandwith.
1 TB ssd hard drive.

2020, 499$ launch price. It will be marketed as 4k/60fps machine.

In that article, it stated that early dev kits got out 18-24 months before the PS4 launched. Rumors are that PS5 dev kits got out early this year. If that was in February, then a Nov 2019 launch would be ~21 months. So, nothing in that article disproves a 2019 launch. 



The PS5 will probably release in either Nov. 2020 or Nov. 2021.

However...

Anyone expecting a gigantic graphical leap from the PS4 Pro to the PS5 are going to be disappointed. The days of giant leaps like we got from PS1 to PS2, or PS2 to PS3...are over.

Which is fine by me. Because honestly - having played games Horizon Zero Dawn and Killzone Shadowfall, we as gamers really don't 'need' any more graphical detail. Especially at the expense of longer development wait times, which has SKY ROCKETED over the last 10 years.

In the 90's, AAA games typically 1 to 2 and a half years of development time and on the very rare occasion 3 years. Fast forward to the early 2010's and games average of 5 years of development time, and some took several years depending on the title. Example:

Final Fantasy 6 - year and a half dev time (SNES)
Final Fantasy 7 - two year dev time (PS1)
Final Fantasy 8 - two year dev time (PS1)
Final Fantasy 9 - two year dev time (PS1)
Final Fantasy 10 - two and a half year dev time (PS2)
Final Fantasy 12 - four year dev time (PS2)
Final Fantasy 13 - five year dev time (PS3)

From there Square Enix's business practices become a little muddy and their turn around times take a nose dive become of constant dev team shifts, so I'll stop there. But you get the idea. More detail in games = more waiting time. Which in excess will be BAD for the video game entertainment industry. Just because we CAN add more detail, doesn't mean we should.

The video game industry will collapse if it reaches the average wait time of 10 years. And studios will have nobody to blame but themselves. We've come a long way, it'd be a shame for our favorite hobby to hit a collapse just because we wanted more detail and particle effects.



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TranceformerFX said:

The PS5 will probably release in either Nov. 2020 or Nov. 2021.

However...

Anyone expecting a gigantic graphical leap from the PS4 Pro to the PS5 are going to be disappointed. The days of giant leaps like we got from PS1 to PS2, or PS2 to PS3...are over.

Which is fine by me. Because honestly - having played games Horizon Zero Dawn and Killzone Shadowfall, we as gamers really don't 'need' any more graphical detail. Especially at the expense of longer development wait times, which has SKY ROCKETED over the last 10 years.

In the 90's, AAA games typically 1 to 2 and a half years of development time and on the very rare occasion 3 years. Fast forward to the early 2010's and games average of 5 years of development time, and some took several years depending on the title. Example:

Final Fantasy 6 - year and a half dev time (SNES)
Final Fantasy 7 - two year dev time (PS1)
Final Fantasy 8 - two year dev time (PS1)
Final Fantasy 9 - two year dev time (PS1)
Final Fantasy 10 - two and a half year dev time (PS2)
Final Fantasy 12 - four year dev time (PS2)
Final Fantasy 13 - five year dev time (PS3)

From there Square Enix's business practices become a little muddy and their turn around times take a nose dive become of constant dev team shifts, so I'll stop there. But you get the idea. More detail in games = more waiting time. Which in excess will be BAD for the video game entertainment industry. Just because we CAN add more detail, doesn't mean we should.

The video game industry will collapse if it reaches the average wait time of 10 years. And studios will have nobody to blame but themselves. We've come a long way, it'd be a shame for our favorite hobby to hit a collapse just because we wanted more detail and particle effects.

I really wouldn't use SE as your basis. Really, the average has gone up, but I would imagine it's closer to 3 years, not 5-6.

Edit: Take GOW, for example. It was just in the concept phase in Dec 2014. 3 years and 3 months later, it was finished. Or Uncharted 4. In Nov 2013, it was in early development and they released a teaser trailer. 2 years and 3 months later, it was finished. 

Last edited by thismeintiel - on 16 April 2018

thismeintiel said:
Trumpstyle said:

Yep, I was on the 2019 team for ps5 release but after jason's article I'm no longer. 2020 is probably the year Sony is aiming for.

Based on this and Eurogamers article this are the spec I believe we see in ps5 now:

Zen 2 with 8 cores and 16 threads, clocked at 3 ghz.
Navi gpu that has 14 TF.
18 GB ggdr6 with 768 GB/s memory bandwith.
1 TB ssd hard drive.

2020, 499$ launch price. It will be marketed as 4k/60fps machine.

In that article, it stated that early dev kits got out 18-24 months before the PS4 launched. Rumors are that PS5 dev kits got out early this year. If that was in February, then a Nov 2019 launch would be ~21 months. So, nothing in that article disproves a 2019 launch. 

"Of those, two people said they were directly familiar with plans for Sony’s new console. Those two people both told me that the next PlayStation is unlikely to release in 2019"

This is from the article.

https://kotaku.com/sources-the-playstation-5-is-still-a-ways-off-1825152206

Also from reading the article there is no information that devs have devkits either, which Jason should know as he is suppose to have the best inside information of all gaming reporters.



6x master league achiever in starcraft2

Beaten Sigrun on God of war mode

Beaten DOOM ultra-nightmare with NO endless ammo-rune, 2x super shotgun and no decoys on ps4 pro.

1-0 against Grubby in Wc3 frozen throne ladder!!

Johnw1104 said:

 Why is everyone so anxious for some miracle box to release so soon anyway? 

Five years is "so soon" to you? If you were in Jr. high school when PS4 launched, you'd be getting ready for college when PS5 released... IF it released this year. Five years is fucking forever in tech.



Cerebralbore101 said:
BraLoD said:

Well it would be nice but it's not a need.

But they are definitely going for the $500 price tag, as will MS as well.

Honestly they could even go for $600 if both went for it together, it's not 2006 anymore, smartphones are yearly way above that, people are willing to pay that much for new tech if that's the norm, and we could get quite stronger hardware with that as well.

But Sony will not leap $200 on a single time, so it'll be $500.

I forsee a graphics wall where, hardware doesn't determine how good a game looks, but rather the talent behind the studio. The more costly the PS5 the closer it gets to that wall. And the closer it gets to that wall the more future proof it will be. Unless we want 20K, 120 FPS there's no need to go any further after a certain point. IMO the future is in 3-D HMD/VR with a controller as the main input. Not in 20K/120 FPS. 

So yeah, provided BC is there, I welcome a $500 - $600 PS5/XB2.

exactly, only a handful of studios (imo mostly 1st parties) will even be able to make use of the available power (with added detail/ complex physics; complex AI for much more life-like worlds / highly detailed, fluid animations etc) of next gen consoles within a sane dev cycle of 4-5years

that's why most games will mainly offer better image quality and higher framerates, which means there won't be much of a "generational leap" in side-by-side videos

VR could profit a lot though, more high fps games could mean more games get a VR mode and higher res is desperately needed aswell



Pemalite said:

Pure Ray Tracing is still a long way away. So you might as well put that expectation to rest.

What we will get is a hybrid Rasterization/Ray Tracing approach... We started heading down that path with Battlefield 3/Frostbite 2 on the Xbox 360/Playstation 3... But there is so much more room to move forward as compute gets significantly better, the transition is going to take time, it's not going to be an instant jump to pure Ray Tracing.

No need to worry, we can wait for built-in hardware acceleration for it like the PowerVR Wizard architecture ...  

It's all in the good days work for Microsoft (well I guess IHVs also deserve credit too) standardizing DXR ... 

Pemalite said:

There should be a strong likelihood of backwards compatibility.

But just because the chips use the same ISA, doesn't guarantee it though, lots of other things can change that breaks it.

This, there could be some hardware related bugs that some software takes advantage of or an undefined behaviour related to hardware implementations ...