Forums - Gaming Discussion - " Update "When Can Sony Deliver A True Generational Leap? - Digital Foundry & Gamer NX

Do you agree

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See result 3 14.29%
 
Total:21
AlfredoTurkey said:
Johnw1104 said:

 Why is everyone so anxious for some miracle box to release so soon anyway? 

Five years is "so soon" to you? If you were in Jr. high school when PS4 launched, you'd be getting ready for college when PS5 released... IF it released this year. Five years is fucking forever in tech.

Five years used to be a long time in tech, it is going slower, and slower now. If PS4 does launch with the specs shown, in 2020, PS4 to PS5 will be by far the smallest gap between PlayStations preformancewise in the history of the brand. Then say you want a PS6 in 2025, the will be an even smaller gap between platforms.

Unless some new form of fabrication becomes viable for mass market, new generations should be taking longer and long. There is no reason to split up userbases, and force consumers to go to new platforms if their is no justifiable performance improvement. Your average Joe consumer, already questioned why they had to buy a PS4/XBO, when they can't hardly tell the difference between PS4 and PS5, what makes you think they are going to upgrade in droves.



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Kind of. At best PS5 will be as powerful as today's high-end PCs. In two years time, it will be considered mid-range. Apart from 4k60fps capable machine, I don't think it will look like generational leap in terms of pure visuals. I'm more interested in what devs (especially 1st party) can do with utilizing that Ryzen CPU to its full potential. We could see some very impressive (or even never-seen-before) physics and environments. So it might not look like a leap, but it will most definitely feel like it.



I have been on the 2020-2021 window for a long time =p



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BraLoD said:
VAMatt said:

Yeah.  But, that's not really a console launch in the traditional sense.  It is an upgraded, premium unit within an existing console family.  Just a few years ago they launched in the traditional way at $499 and regretted it.  A generation ago Sony launched at a relatively high price and regretted it as well.    

XBO problem was not the price, was that the price was inflated by a mandatory bundle with the Kinect which made it pricer even as it was weaker than the PS4.

With the PS5 and XB4 releases both can confortably sit at $500 and if one is $400 it would need to be stronger than the $500 of the other to make it a problem.

I have zero doubt both of them will be $500 as it's the sweet spot to bring more power and keep the other on track. If, for example, MS releases a $400 console and Sony a stronger for $500 I'm pretty sure the Sony one would sell the most, if they are equivalent in power they should sell similarly as PS is a stronger brand, and if Sony releases the $400 and MS the $500 and Sony's the weaker, it would be the same.

Both companies would want to not lose too much money on each console at release while still keeping the other on check, so none will want to have the weaker machine and going for $500 will be the safest bet for both, unless MS is willing to release a $500 machine for $400 to chew on Sony's market share, which I don't think they will do.

Well there is a risk of your competitor launching for $400 with a slightly more powerful system if you launch for $500.
It's not just hardware that determines the cost, but also how much of a loss the companies are willing to take on console sales. While none ideally want to lose much money on hardware, it's been a tried and true strategy for previous generations. If I recall correctly this was the first console generation where Sony and MS were profitable on their launch systems day 1, but don't quote me on that.
While there are several reasons for why Xbox lost marketshare this generation, and PS3 did last generation, launch price was none the less one significant factor.

Barring that Sony and MS sit down to talk and agree on a mutual launch year and pricepoint, I'd wager they are now both weary of launching at a higher price than their competitor. Among other things.



Kristof81 said:
Kind of. At best PS5 will be as powerful as today's high-end PCs. In two years time, it will be considered mid-range. Apart from 4k60fps capable machine, I don't think it will look like generational leap in terms of pure visuals. I'm more interested in what devs (especially 1st party) can do with utilizing that Ryzen CPU to its full potential. We could see some very impressive (or even never-seen-before) physics and environments. So it might not look like a leap, but it will most definitely feel like it.

I think graphics have gotten to a point where it is pretty much impossible to be impressed by any kind of leap in terms of visuals. I mean, look at gow or a fully modded gta5 on pc. We're getting extremely close to photorealism (or actual animation, depending on the visual style).

Next will be physics, AI and world density, but I doubt those things will be able to provide the same level of amazement when simply looking at a game. What I mean to say is, we don't need to go much further in terms of visuals. We're "there" already. What we need, now, is consoles able to provide 4k/60fps gameplay (+HDR). Also, many devs are not able or willing to keep up with the current state of the art visuals. Developing a game that can take full advantage of today's hardware simply cost too much, we don't need to put devs under more pressure simply because hw could theoretically allow them to develop photorealistic games.



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GCN can only accomodate 64CU's, custom would be too expensive. Loving the TF numbers people are throwing about. PS5 will not be a massive leap, the pro proved that.



2020 could be the first year when a huge performance leap will be viable and cheap: Zen2 or even Zen3 for CPU cores, mature, powerful and cheap Navi tech or even Next Gen for the GPU (if not delayed Next Gen will already be there, but it's not sure if models with the right performance, consumption and price for consoles will already be available), and last, but not least, maybe by then RAM manufacturers will have caught up with additional demand due to cryptomining, or maybe the whole cryptocurrency bubble will have burst, making RAM dirt cheap thanks to sudden excess supply.
By then the necessary power to do VR at at least 1080p@60fps per eye will be commodity, and most probably even 1440p will be cheap enough, so for VR to finally become mainstream it will only be matter of good headsets and well devised input devices to exist and be cheap enough, and above all of SW making good use of the available HW resources.



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JamesGarret said:
- 2020
-$399

Pls Sony

Very probably not enough to create enough distance in GPU power between itself and the PS4 Pro unless very strongly subventionized.

BraLoD said:
2020 for $500

Much more realistic imo.

Considering how well the PS4 is still selling, holding off until 2021 or even 2022 to milk out the PS4 doesn't look impossible either, and at that point a worthy successor could be possible for a 399$ pricetag



JRPGfan said:

I must be the only one here.... who doesnt care too much?

I rather sony try to keep it at 400$, than do a 500$ machine thats more powerfull ect.
Graphics are at a point where I honestly dont feel like I need much more.

15 Tflops @499$
13 Tflops at @449$
11 Tflops at @399$

Which is best? imo the 399$ one.

This generation saw increase in both tie-ratio, online subscriptions and micro transactions; thus the acceptable loss on release should be revised.

Wouldn't that make 15tf/450$ possible ? With a possibility of a digital only SKU that would further diminish the price.



Trumpstyle said:
thismeintiel said:

In that article, it stated that early dev kits got out 18-24 months before the PS4 launched. Rumors are that PS5 dev kits got out early this year. If that was in February, then a Nov 2019 launch would be ~21 months. So, nothing in that article disproves a 2019 launch. 

"Of those, two people said they were directly familiar with plans for Sony’s new console. Those two people both told me that the next PlayStation is unlikely to release in 2019"

This is from the article.

https://kotaku.com/sources-the-playstation-5-is-still-a-ways-off-1825152206

Also from reading the article there is no information that devs have devkits either, which Jason should know as he is suppose to have the best inside information of all gaming reporters.

He also says it's possible that those dev kits are under lock and key, so that only higher upside and certain devs can have access to them, like previous ones. If that is the case, which two other reliable leaks seem to suggest, then Jason must not be talking to some of the highest people on the totem pole. Which he doesn't seem to stress that these people are high enough that they definitely would know if there were some out there. Which also makes me doubt he is talking to someone who knows for sure what Sony has planned.

Either way, I'm still sticking with 2019, with an outside chance of 2020.

Hiku said: 
BraLoD said: 

XBO problem was not the price, was that the price was inflated by a mandatory bundle with the Kinect which made it pricer even as it was weaker than the PS4.

With the PS5 and XB4 releases both can confortably sit at $500 and if one is $400 it would need to be stronger than the $500 of the other to make it a problem.

I have zero doubt both of them will be $500 as it's the sweet spot to bring more power and keep the other on track. If, for example, MS releases a $400 console and Sony a stronger for $500 I'm pretty sure the Sony one would sell the most, if they are equivalent in power they should sell similarly as PS is a stronger brand, and if Sony releases the $400 and MS the $500 and Sony's the weaker, it would be the same.

Both companies would want to not lose too much money on each console at release while still keeping the other on check, so none will want to have the weaker machine and going for $500 will be the safest bet for both, unless MS is willing to release a $500 machine for $400 to chew on Sony's market share, which I don't think they will do.

Well there is a risk of your competitor launching for $400 with a slightly more powerful system if you launch for $500.
It's not just hardware that determines the cost, but also how much of a loss the companies are willing to take on console sales. While none ideally want to lose much money on hardware, it's been a tried and true strategy for previous generations. If I recall correctly this was the first console generation where Sony and MS were profitable on their launch systems day 1, but don't quote me on that. 
While there are several reasons for why Xbox lost marketshare this generation, and PS3 did last generation, launch price was none the less one significant factor. 

Barring that Sony and MS sit down to talk and agree on a mutual launch year and pricepoint, I'd wager they are now both weary of launching at a higher price than their competitor. Among other things.

Nah, Sony and MS took a loss with their consoles. Sony said it would take two games, I believe, with each PS4 purchase to break even. Though, this probably has been one of the fastest gens where the price to manufacture has dropped to make the HW profitable, as I believe it only took 6 months after launch for Sony to start making a slight profit on the HW. Next gen should be no different. If Sony sells the PS5 for $399, probably cost them ~$450-$460 to make it. If they sell it for $449, it probably cost them ~$500-$510.

And, yea, there will be much more than price to make up for MS. PS is just too big of brand for MS to take on without a big price advantage (like $150-$200) AND power advantage. Even then, PS3 came out on top. Next gen, MS is, at most, going to have a price advantage of $50-$100, with similar power, which won't help them because of how they are ending this gen. No real brand direction and with a 1st party drought. Personally, I think MS is going to go back to trying to be the most powerful, but at a price higher than PS5, even if only slightly. I think we'll see the XB2 be 5%-10% more powerful than the PS5, and cost $50-$100 more. If so, I see this gen repeating, again, with Sony doing 100M+ and MS 40M+.