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Forums - Gaming Discussion - " Update "When Can Sony Deliver A True Generational Leap? - Digital Foundry & Gamer NX

 

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Total:21
BraLoD said:
thismeintiel said:

LOL, yep.  Didn't you know, Sony still has to sell buildings just to stay afloat. 

Can't wait for God of War 3!

Sadly, Sony can't afford enough ink for the 3, so they have just settled for God of War on the cover.  We are truly in sad times.



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thismeintiel said:
TranceformerFX said:

An outside chance? Do you honestly think Sony would shoot themselves in the foot by releasing the PS5 with Tsushima, Last of Us 2 and FF7 Remake still in the pipe? Those are system sellers, that would be so so dumb.

Do the math bro, a 2019 release date isnt gonna happen - no matter which viewpoint you take. 

You know what I find funny, bro, is people who keep saying "Sony would never" when talking about the PS5.  It's like none of you guys even remember or look into gaming history, whether it comes to gaming releases and/or sales.  Hell, even as far as this past gen.  Let's take a look shall we.

3rd party PS1 releases in 2000, the year the PS2 launched - Vagrant Story, NFS: Porche Unleashed, The Misadventures of Tron Bonne (Mega Man Legends spinoff), MK:SF, Threads of Fate, Strider 2, Chrono Cross, DQ VII, Spider-Man, TH's Pro Skater 2, Vampire Hunter D, Destruction Derby Raw, Donald Duck: GQ, Mega Man Legends 2, Capcom vs SNK: M 2000, Incredible Crisis, The World Is Not Enough, FFIX, The Emperor's New Groove, TR Chronicles, 007 Racing, Batman Beyond: ROTJ, Harvest Moon, Disney's Aladdin: NR, Evil Dead: HTTK,

Sony PS1 releases in 2000 - Wild Arms 2, Spyro: YOTD, Crash Bash

The PS1 also sold ~21M in 1999, the year before the PS2 launched.  With those sales and games coming out, why, oh why, would they even think about releasing a new console, yet?

Notable 3rd party PS2 releases in 2005, the year the PS3 was originally going to launch, and 2006 - Mercenaries: POD, Shadow of Rome, Xenosaga Ep II, FIFA Street, Tekken 5, Fight Night Rnd 2, DMC 3, MX vs ATV Unleashed, Timesplitters: FP, Dynasty Warriors 5, Splinter Cell: CT, Lego SW, Midnight Club 3, Psychonauts, Burnout Revenge, MK:SM, Indigo Prophecy, RE4, Soul Calibur 3, COD 2, SW Battlefront 2, Guitar Hero, NFS: MW, DQ VIII, Drakengard 2, MGS3: S, FFXII, KH 2, TR: Legends, Jaws Unleashed, Hitman: BM, DOC: FFVII, Disgaea 2, Xenosaga Ep III, Lego SW 2, Okami, Just Cause, Scarface, MK:A, Spyro: ANB, Bully, NFS:C, COD 3, Guitar Hero 2, TH Project 8

Sony PS2 releases in 2005 and 2006 - The Getaway: BM, MLB 2006, GOW, Rise of Kasai, Genji: DOTS, Sly 3, SOCOM 3, Jak X:CR, SOTC, Ratchet: Deadlocked, Ape Escape 3, Siren 2, MLB 06, SOCOM: CA, Ape Escape: MM

The PS2 also sold ~20M in 2005, the year before the PS3 launched.  With those sales and games coming out, why, oh why, would they even think about releasing a new console, yet?

Notable 3rd party PS3 releases in 2013, the year the PS4 launched - DmC, Ni no Kuni, Dead Space 3, Crysis 3, MG Rising, TR, Bioshock: I, Injustice, Dragon's Dogma: DA, Metro: LL, Grid 2, Deadpool, Dynasty Warriors 8, Dragon's Crown, Saint's Row IV, Splinter Cell: BL, FF XIV, Diablo 3, Rayman Legends, GTA V, Disgaea D2, Lego Marvel, Batman: AO, AC IV: BF, BF4, COD: Ghosts, XCOM, NFS: Rivals, Minecraft, TWD: S2

Sony PS3 releases in 2013 - Sly Cooper: TIT, MLB 13, GOW: A, TLOU, Puppeteer, Rain, Beyond: TS, R&C: ITN, GT6

Now, the sales argument doesn't quite work for PS3, as sales were starting to decline due to the length of the gen.  Though, using VGC's estimated sell-through of 13M+, we can guess shipments were still a respectable ~15M in 2012.  Still, with all those games launching, why, oh why, would they even think to release a new console, yet?

The whole point is, games launching or the sales of a console means nothing when it comes to launching new HW.  It has to do with launching when new HW is available for a decent leap in between gens, which it is.  It also has to do with launching before the gen starts to drag on, so those who bought the console in 2013 aren't waiting around for 7+ years for their next piece of HW, as they may go elsewhere.  All these people complaining that they haven't been in the gen for long aren't thinking of those who bought a PS4 at launch, or soon after, and didn't feel it necessary to upgrade to the Pro.  In 2019, they will have already had their console for ~6 years.  Many of them will be ready to move on.  And those who bought a PS4 mid-gen can do so with the PS5, making them have the console for ~6 years, as well.

But for some reason sony got to complacent and arrogant with PS3, instead of just reading the market wrong.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

To be honest i dont think we'll ever see it again. Only so far you can go with graphics now and I don't think we'll ever see a true true jump from generation to generation like we saw with older systems or even the ps2 to ps3 jump,etc.

could be wrong,but i just don't see it



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PwerlvlAmy said:
To be honest i dont think we'll ever see it again. Only so far you can go with graphics now and I don't think we'll ever see a true true jump from generation to generation like we saw with older systems or even the ps2 to ps3 jump,etc.

could be wrong,but i just don't see it

That's because :

1. The tech is in it's last breath, on more's law

2.Price and other necesety. In year 2000, people never have to worry about buying smarth phones, this times, consoles maker have to compromise price to be able inderectly compete with smarth phones.

3. Graphic already advance and it's so hard to nit picking and notice , further improvement will be more about intangible aspect  like Ray tracing , World simulation like No Man sky, Sea of Thieves , AI and , face Animation, and physic.  

4. We become mature and our eyes trained to graphic, especially for people who play on PC.  



SvennoJ said:
PS5 should launch when light weight 4K VR headsets with reliable inside out and eye tracking are affordable. Headsets need to be available from the start, not another add-on 2 years later.

2020 at the very earliest, 2021 is better.

15tf is not going to bring that generational leap wow factor on a screen anyway. At most you can expect some star citizen like graphics and perhaps some more dynamic lighting. The big leap will be in VR.

you and anyone else that thinks we wnt see a generational leap with 15TF of GPU power is in for a shock.

The issue with you guys is that you seem to think that the GPU is the only thing responsible for a "generational leap". It isn't, its just the easiest to market and point out out.

The PS5 will at the very least have a CPU thts over 4 times more powerful, have memory bandwidth thats at or over 700GB/s+...etc. Its GPu architecture will be different, aka more advanced, so basically its "TF" will be better than the TF in the GPUs of the consoles today.

And isn't this what is said every single console generation?



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Would you consider that as generational leap? For me that would be a real leap, but that's rendered in UE4 using, 4x Tesla V100 at 1080p 24fps. At the moment we're not even close.

Last edited by Kristof81 - on 17 April 2018

I still think 10-12TF is more likely than 15+. I mean an AMD RX 580 which is ~6 Tflops, so about what's in the XBO X, costs around $360. I just don't see a machine more than 12TF being viable for a reasonable price, even launching in 2020.

One things for sure though, the CPU next-gen is going to see a massive increase compared to Jaguar. The gap isn't all about those flops.



Trumpstyle said:

Yes I believe so too. Except I'm getting more positive towards the Navi gpu. I think the radeon 680 will beat the 1080 ti from Nvidia and have similiar performance to geforce 2080. Ps5/xbox two gpus will probably beat the geforce 1080 ti by about 10-20% :). So a bit higher than a high end pc.

Navi had better beat the Geforce 1080Ti, a GPU derived from Pascal which is already a few years old at this point.

Random_Matt said:
GCN can only accomodate 64CU's, custom would be too expensive. Loving the TF numbers people are throwing about. PS5 will not be a massive leap, the pro proved that.

That is 64CU's per chip. You can have more than one chip working together.

As for the Playstation 4 Pro... The majority of it's power went to enhancing framerates/resolution, so of course the leap will seem to be rather mediocre.

Trumpstyle said:

7nm gives about 3x transistor in same die size compared to 16nm in ps4 pro.

Source?

Chazore said:

So AMD is going to totally crush Nvidia in one fell swoop along with PS5?.

nVidia will answer with Volta.
AMD is so far behind in the GPU game it's pretty terrible.

Hopefully they can turn things around with their next gen GPU uArch.

thismeintiel said:

 From PS1 to PS2, we had a RAM increase of 12x.  That would mean 96 GB of RAM in the PS5!  From the PS2 to PS3, there was an increase of ~14x.  That would mean 112 GB of RAM in the PS5!!  Now, this gen we saw a jump of ~15.5x.  That would mean 124 GB of RAM in the PS5!!!  Max we are seeing in the PS5 is 32GB, which is only a 4x jump.  However, that extra 24GB of RAM would truly be bigger than the extra 7.5GB we got this gen.

PS1: 3.5Mb of Ram total. (2MB system, 1MB video, 512kb Audio.)
PS2: 40-42MB. (32MB System, 4MB video, 2MB Audio, 2-4MB I/O.)
PS3: 512MB. (256MB System, 256MB video.)
PS4: 8448. (8192MB System, 256MB Background tasks.)
PS4 Pro: 9216MB. (8192 System, 1024MB Background tasks.)

The jump from PS1 to PS2 was in-fact 11.4x -12x
The jump from PS2 to PS3 was 12.8x - 12.19x
The jump from PS3 to PS4 was 16.5x.
The jump from PS3 to PS4 Pro was 18x.

But the real caveat is "Usable Ram". - This generation saw probably one of the largest increases in Ram consumption not reserved for gaming.
5.5GB is available on the Playstation 4 for instance... With the OS gobbling up 2.5-3GB
Whilst on the Playstation 3 the OS was only 50MB.

Ergo...
Playstation 4: 5,632MB for games.
Playstation 3: 462MB for games.
Meaning there was a 12.19x increase in DRAM for developers with the jump from the PS3 to PS4, putting it inline with historical increase trends.

With that in mind... GDDR6 is allowing for a doubling of DRAM density over GDDR5.
And the highest density GDDR5 is 8 Gb chips... Where-as the Playstation 4 has 16x 4 Gb density chips.

So by 2020 it could be economical to have 32GB of GDDR6, prices at the moment is crazy though.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

CGI-Quality said:
Some of you really don’t expect graphical jumps? You guys have no idea. We aren’t even CLOSE to the ceiling.

That is the time for you to put some of those teasers of yours.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

CGI-Quality said:
Some of you really don’t expect graphical jumps? You guys have no idea. We aren’t even CLOSE to the ceiling.

At some point designers won't be able to increase the level of detail even if theres unlimited processing power as they can't put unlimited work hours into a scene. I think it will be tough to trump even GoW in that aspect.

Obviously I'm aware that current gen lighting models are nowhere near "life-like", yet the improvements real physical lighting/path tracing can offer are pretty subtle at this point (save for reflections) - the only thing I really need is more bounce/diffuse light / global illumination as unnaturally dark areas/corners have a negative influence on gameplay.