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Forums - Sales Discussion - Which company is going to win holidays in the US? EDIT: Poll added

 

Which company is going to sell the most hardware?

Sony 49 45.37%
 
Nintendo 56 51.85%
 
Microsoft 3 2.78%
 
Total:108

My bet is on Switch. This is the year that the flood of games and word of mouth will begin paying off for Switch and PS4 is seeing a decline. PS4 numbers will still be high but not high enough to reach last year numbers or beat the next Switch increase. LABO is the wild card here. I’m curious if it will hit like Nintendo is marketing it to. Depends on if it can capture the curiosity of mainstream media, which is sometimes unpredictable. Going into the holdiay, Switch will have Smash, Switch will have Pokemon, Switch might have Animal Crossing, Switch will likely have a slew of 3rd party titles we have yet to see announced, this isn’t talking about Fire Emblem, Wolfenstein, Yoshi, or any other number of titles we know are coming. This will be the year the Switch becomes real to everyone.

Yes I know RDR2 and Spider-Man are going to be big, but keep in mind too that the price drops of last holiday really pushed the envelope on PS4 adoption. It’s more likely most people going to play these games already have a PS4. Now predicting how much each of those titles will sell is going to be fun too.

Last edited by zygote - on 11 April 2018

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Well lets take a look at Q4 sales last year.

PS4-2.96 million
XBO-2.78 million
NSW-2.57 million

It was a very close and competitive holiday quarter last year and i expect it to be this year as well.

Overall i think Switch will be up YOY (1st) while PS4 (2nd) & XBO (3rd) will be slightly down.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

What exactly is the question being asked?
Platform software sales? 1st party dev/pub sales? Console sales?



I'd say let's wait until E3. We'll know all plans for the rest of the year from all 3 companies + third parties.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

PEEPer0nni said:
CGI-Quality said:
If Sony has the marketing to Black Ops IIII, I imagine that it'll be them. If Nintendo releases Smash, however, it'll throw a wrench in there.

Do you think BO4 is going to sell better than RDR2? And yeah, Smash is confirmed for 2018 and probably coming out in September along with the online service. 

I do expected Black Ops to edge RDR2, but I meant it collectively. Between those two, and Spidey, I expect the PS4 to win it. That or Switch (which it has a very good possibility with Smash out). 

Plenty of hypotheticals, but one of those two should win.



                                                                                                             

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How can this even be a serious question? We don't even know what the Holiday lineup will be, let alone the consumer response to that lineup. Most of these questions are typically just "which console are you the biggest fan of" but this one is nothing but that.

So I guess I'll just say...Nintendo. Haha...I've got nothing to go on but it still feels good to root for your team, right?



super_etecoon said:
How can this even be a serious question? We don't even know what the Holiday lineup will be, let alone the consumer response to that lineup. Most of these questions are typically just "which console are you the biggest fan of" but this one is nothing but that.

So I guess I'll just say...Nintendo. Haha...I've got nothing to go on but it still feels good to root for your team, right?

Eh, there's nothing wrong with speculating. No different than 'how much will 'x' game sell'. It's fun to look forward (especially since we're on a site that tracks numbers).



                                                                                                             

Depends if we're talking revenue? I think Sony has the best chance. Hardware units? Nintendo has the best chance with Switch, 3DS/2DS, and NES/SNES/N64 classics out simultatneously. Between just Switch, PS4, and XB1, probably a toss up between PS4 and Switch. If Pokemon and Smash are both released between Sept-Dec, that's a huge juggernaut there.



CGI-Quality said:
super_etecoon said:
How can this even be a serious question? We don't even know what the Holiday lineup will be, let alone the consumer response to that lineup. Most of these questions are typically just "which console are you the biggest fan of" but this one is nothing but that.

So I guess I'll just say...Nintendo. Haha...I've got nothing to go on but it still feels good to root for your team, right?

Eh, there's nothing wrong with speculating. No different than 'how much will 'x' game sell'. It's fun to look forward (especially since we're on a site that tracks numbers).

We're on a site that tracks numbers of products.  These are products that have been released.  We are also a site that speculates on numbers...for products that have been announced.  Holiday 2018 will certainly take place, but what products will be released in that time we have zero idea about.  We don't even know if Smash is a port or a new game.  We don't know if Pokemon will release or if there is an Animal Crossing game coming down the pike.  The only real way to answer this hypothetical is based on brand loyalty and general company momentum, not the products that will release.  And those products are what truly matter since we can all agree that games sell consoles. Fine, it makes for a valid thread, but not one for serious speculation.  And that's the point of my response. My answer is barely valid...I can't support it with any logic or evidence and I wouldn't award anyone a prize or plate of crow for being right or wrong.  



Sony seems to have the edge at the moment but we need to wait for E3 to start making definitive predictions. We don't know the release date for Smash or much of anything beyond July for Switch. Or what their plans are with regards to bundles and other deals.