That is not how it works.

The key question is: Is there new technology that is affordable for a mass market product. In the heydays of computing, a technology jump roughly happened every other year. These days are long gone. Nowadays technology "jumps" in the percent range.

If you want a PS5 this year (not going to happen, absolutely not), you'd get 14nm stuff. In the end something a little faster than an XBox1X. That is not worth the effort, given the PS4Pro is already close there. End of 2019 is technically feasible, but with still expensive and fresh (hence unoptimised) 7nm technology.

Well, let's see:

So, it differs a lot. Median is 72 months, exactly six years. Average is 71 months, five years and eleven months. Generally failed consoles lived shorter, not always had more successful consoles a longer time until the successor.

For consoles released after 2000 the median is 73 months, six years and one month. Average is 70 months, five years and ten months. So, for newer consoles did not change that much.

If we look only at Sony (as we talk about a possible PS5) we see a median of 82 months (six years and ten months) and an average of 78 months (six years and four months). So with Sony we could even assume a life cycle a bit longer than six years.

So generally the data supports that a six year cycle is the norm. For Sony we could assume more.

EDIT: One thing to notice though: for early consoles the releases in different regions of the world were often years apart. As in recent years the worldwide release was spread out less much, it means in some regions the cycle was shorter than written in the table above (If for the first console it released a year later in the US compared to Japan, and the next had releases in both regions at the same time, so the cycle in the US lasted a year shorter). But as all the manufacturers released the last console in all three major regions (Japan, US, europe) at around the same time, it should not matter so much now.

Because it seems highly unlikely that PS5 or XB4 release this year which would make it the 3rd PS console & 2nd XB console in a row to have a 6+ year cycle.

Also, since 2000 the only consoles to have less than a 6 year cycle were GC, XB & Wii U. All three of these consoles sold under 25m and had under 12% marketshare.

Basically, since the beginning of the century, only failures have been replaced in under 6 years.

Hehe, releasing the PS5 this year would be a pretty dumb move on Sonys side, but still I doubt the PS4 would sell better than with a later release of the successor. It might sell around the same, for the reason you said.

i think many are missing one factor in the argument.. the key people who were behind the success of PS4 is no longer in charge. Kaz, Jack Tretton, Andrew House, Adam. Dont know who is designing the next console.. is it Mark Cerny, or someone else?.. it will be stupid of Sony not to hire him again for PS5.

The thing is sony has a history of getting cocky and over ambitious with success, like PS2 to PS3. so with new management I wont be surprised if we start hearing about the rumbling of PS5 announcement early 2019, with the release in fall.

And all the prominent developers have gotten Black box but those kits contain high end component which in no way will make onto PS5 unless it costed $1000. the only utter importance in the box are API's and framework

The PS4 is at its peak/almost equal to peak year and people think they'll release the PS5 this year. I think it will be a 2020 release with 2019 being almost as likely. Definitely won't be released later than 2020 though (even if it wouldn't be such a crazy idea).

Guys semiaccurate were first to report that nintendo switch will be using nvidia tegra chip. Not only first but like 6 months ahead of everybody else.
https://semiaccurate.com/2016/05/12/guess-whos-silicon-is-in-nintendos-nx/
https://www.neogaf.com/threads/semiaccurate-nintendo-nx-handheld-to-use-nvidia-tegra-based-soc.1218933/

So no need to just dismiss them outright. But since they claim devkits gone out I would w8 about 2 months to see if eurogamer or kotaku to confirm this.

Now 2018 release is just very unlikely I always believed fall 2019, but since this rumor there is probably a small chance we see the ps5 1H 2019.

I think you ll see a Zen cpu (with SMT disabled/removed) so 8cores/8threads only (not 8/16).
However because of the shrink, I could see these running upwards of 3ghz+.

Going from a jaguar at 1.6ghz -> custum zen at 3ghz+ would be a huuuuge step up in terms of cpu prowess.

GDDR5x  with 16 GB, and probably 4gb DDR3 for OS.
Navi GPU at around 12 Tflops (akin to a Vega 64).

Could such a box be 400$? probably.


I  wonder what MS is thinking with all this news out....
I doubt they want to give PS5 a year headstart, so hopefully they are ready for a 2019 launch too.

There is literally no reason for Sony to accelerate onto next-gen. It would kill the goodwill they have with consumers rights now. As someone who recently bought a Pro, I'd feel very betrayed and would be unlikely to be interested in jumping to the next gen yet. I'd probably end up buying a Switch instead. I'm sure many others feel the same way. Unlike every other gen before, now we witness the fewest gains for our buck, whilst at the same time developer costs increase for marginal technological and gameplay gains. Such a move would be suicide, especially if they ditch compatibility with PS4.

I think Sony is smarter than this. And Microsoft releasing a new XBOX after all the promises on the X would be an even more humongous marketing suicide. They would be literally waving bye bye to their customer base entirely.

Not happening this year. At the earliest late 2019, or early 2020 more likely.

If VR is baked in at the silicon level in PS5, will it be a burden for traditional games like Kinect 2 integration was with the reserved resources?